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2020 Senate Races

CantStandYa said:
Have to think it's a matter of turnout at this point (Thanks Captain Obvious!). If there is a wave of traditional GOP voters that simply sit this one out, these toss-up races are all going to swing to the Dems.
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Yeah, this is what I am thinking. There are a lot of regular folks and friends in my small(er) town that almost always vote Pub. This time around they will either vote absentee or not show their faces in the voting line as all others would know they are pushing the Trump button and would want nothing further to do with them.
 
CantStandYa said:
Have to think it's a matter of turnout at this point (Thanks Captain Obvious!). If there is a wave of traditional GOP voters that simply sit this one out, these toss-up races are all going to swing to the Dems.
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Yes, but the GOTV thing could cut both ways. I can see a bunch of millennials not showing up because Clinton has this thing in the bag. OTOH, some establishment voters could stay home, and some hardcore Trump supporters won't vote for Pub senators who have disavowed Trump (they'll leave the senator selection blank). Add to that some establishment voters will hold their noses and vote for Hillary and vote for their Pub senator as a check on her. I see a mix of all these things. The killer would be if Trump actually comes out and instructs his army of followers not to vote for Pubs down ticket who have disavowed him. I'm thinking this is why McConnell is currently in the witness protection program and hasn't said anything publicly about Trump in the last week, which is smart. And I think Ryan has handled this as well as possible by criticizing but not completely disavowing Trump and just telling his fellow house Pubs to do what they think best.
 
The big shift over the last week is that there's more of a sense of urgency to vote against Trump than to vote against Hillary.
 
cville deac said:
Yes, but the GOTV thing could cut both ways. I can see a bunch of millennials not showing up because Clinton has this thing in the bag. OTOH, some establishment voters could stay home, and some hardcore Trump supporters won't vote for Pub senators who have disavowed Trump (they'll leave the senator selection blank). Add to that some establishment voters will hold their noses and vote for Hillary and vote for their Pub senator as a check on her. I see a mix of all these things. The killer would be if Trump actually comes out and instructs his army of followers not to vote for Pubs down ticket who have disavowed him. I'm thinking this is why McConnell is currently in the witness protection program and hasn't said anything publicly about Trump in the last week, which is smart. And I think Ryan has handled this as well as possible by criticizing but not completely disavowing Trump and just telling his fellow house Pubs to do what they think best.
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I'll definitely be curious about the split-ticket numbers for this cycle. Split-ticketing has steadily declined over the last 30 years, but will likely see an uptick this year. The question is how large of an uptick.
 
CantStandYa said:
I'll definitely be curious about the split-ticket numbers for this cycle. Split-ticketing has steadily declined over the last 30 years, but will likely see an uptick this year. The question is how large of an uptick.
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There will definitely be some establishment Pubs doing this. And I bet there will also be a few disaffected Bernie Bros who vote Trump or 3rd party for prez but Dem for senator. But I'm assuming more of the former than the latter.

Also, right after I wrote my prior post, I saw an article on McCain in AZ where some strong Trump folks are saying they may not vote for McCain because of his disavowal of Trump. Anything that's within the margin of error either way could really end up swinging a few points the other way depending on all those factors. Still think WI & IL are very likely pick-ups, but NH, PA, NC, IN, MO, NV and even AZ & FL could have surprise results. Pubs in those states better hope that their feuds with Trump stay on simmer level and that he doesn't instruct his supporters not to vote for senate.
 
Had lunch with a Midwestern Dem operative today. Dems are very confident in IL, WI, and MI for HRC. Cautiously optimistic in OH and IA. Have written off IN and MO.

On the Senate side, very confident in WI. Confident in IL. Concerned about IN. Iffy on MO. Have written off IA and OH.
 
DeacWatcher said:
When it comes down to it, they'll go for Bayh.
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The last 2 IN polls I saw had Bayh up 1 about a week ago and 6 the other day. I would have thought he'd be okay, but he's getting push back because he's spent the last 6 years in DC and not IN. He was apparently in the state precious little before he decided to run this time.
 
Princeton says a 3% Hillary win gives her the Senate, but it'll take 8% to win the House -http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/18/synch-and-swim/
 
TownieDeac said:
Princeton says a 3% Hillary win gives her the Senate, but it'll take 8% to win the House -http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/18/synch-and-swim/
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I don't think an 8% win takes the House due to gerrymandering. Many say only 30-35 seats are in competitive districts. Some already have Dems. Even if she wins by 10%, it would be a stretch to take the House.
 
RJKarl said:
I don't think an 8% win takes the House due to gerrymandering. Many say only 30-35 seats are in competitive districts. Some already have Dems. Even if she wins by 10%, it would be a stretch to take the House.
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Well regardless of whether you believe Princeton or not, the strategy for both parties is straightforward downticket. If you're a Dem, you tie your opponent to Trump, if you're a Pub, distance yourself.
 
TownieDeac said:
Well regardless of whether you believe Princeton or not, the strategy for both parties is straightforward downticket. If you're a Dem, you tie your opponent to Trump, if you're a Pub, distance yourself.
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Not really. If you publicly disavow Trump, you risk alienating his strong supporters who may then just not cast a senate vote. You need all of those votes. You need to distance without completely disavowing. It's a fine line to walk.

And I don't believe either of those Princeton #s either. The house is out of range no matter the Clinton margin. And the senate races are all over the place. Some don't mirror the presidential race at all - like IN, AZ, FL and OH - MO & PA too to a lesser extent. But the polls in NV, NH, and NC do closely mirror, and if she wins any of those by 4+%, the Dem wins.
 
We already have 2018's best race- MA - Elizabeth Warren vs. Curt Schilling. He's already got two excuses for why he bk'd his company leaving the government of Rhode Island with his $75,000,000 bad debt. Excuse #1 is he didn't get the additional money he needed to launch his first video game. #2 is even better, they shouldn't have given him the money in the first place.

They will need a mercy rule if these two debate.
 
538 had an interesting chat discussion about how the Clinton campaign should close out the election. Snuff out any potential Trump paths to 270 (FL, PA, OH, NC, NV, IA, NH), expand the map (AZ, GA, TX, UT, AK), or focus on shaky GOP Senate candidates (MO, IN).

No doubt Dems would love to have GA and TX now, but they are moving purple or even blue in the near term and won't yield any Senators this cycle. AZ is attainable now. Dems up slightly, investing $2M in ads, and bringing in Michelle Obama. Probably won't topple McCain, but blue (CA, NM) and purple (CO, NV, AZ) Southwestern states will give them sufficient Spanish language economies of scale to focus on the long slog for TX in 2018 and beyond.

Emphasize swing states with potential Senator pick ups (PA, FL, NC, NH, NV), IN and MO, and AZ. No bang for buck in both high $ states (TX and GA) and low end (AK and UT). Playing for 370 is tempting, but falling short and leaving Senate seats on the table would be foolish. Settle for 335 EVs and get as many Senate seats as possible. Add two Justices before midterms and dare the GOP to lose their dsyfunction before 2018 or 2020.
 
Toomey's new ad is all-in on avoiding Trump and pushing McGinty as an insider.

 
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