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2020 Senate Races

CantStandYa said:
Toomey's new ad is all-in on avoiding Trump and pushing McGinty as an insider.
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Weird, cville told me this was a bad idea.

cville deac said:
Not really. If you publicly disavow Trump, you risk alienating his strong supporters who may then just not cast a senate vote. You need all of those votes. You need to distance without completely disavowing. It's a fine line to walk.
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CantStandYa said:
Toomey's new ad is all-in on avoiding Trump and pushing McGinty as an insider.

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lol, started playing this at work and my ear phones weren't plugged in enough so it played out loud. When he said "I have a lot of disagreements with Donald Trump," three people around me laughed and said "me too."
 
538 has 52-48 as the most likely result at 15.4%. 51-59 is 15.2% and 53-47 is 14.9%.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
538 had an interesting chat discussion about how the Clinton campaign should close out the election. Snuff out any potential Trump paths to 270 (FL, PA, OH, NC, NV, IA, NH), expand the map (AZ, GA, TX, UT, AK), or focus on shaky GOP Senate candidates (MO, IN).

No doubt Dems would love to have GA and TX now, but they are moving purple or even blue in the near term and won't yield any Senators this cycle. AZ is attainable now. Dems up slightly, investing $2M in ads, and bringing in Michelle Obama. Probably won't topple McCain, but blue (CA, NM) and purple (CO, NV, AZ) Southwestern states will give them sufficient Spanish language economies of scale to focus on the long slog for TX in 2018 and beyond.

Emphasize swing states with potential Senator pick ups (PA, FL, NC, NH, NV), IN and MO, and AZ. No bang for buck in both high $ states (TX and GA) and low end (AK and UT). Playing for 370 is tempting, but falling short and leaving Senate seats on the table would be foolish. Settle for 335 EVs and get as many Senate seats as possible. Add two Justices before midterms and dare the GOP to lose their dsyfunction before 2018 or 2020.
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I agree that is the best pragmatic approach.

Townie, I do think Pub senate candidates have an extremely fine line to walk. If you repudiate Trump too loudly, you really risk alienating strong Trump supporters who may just vote for him and not vote down ballot. OTOH, if you don't distance yourself enough, you risk alienating independent voters you're trying to lure in. And it depends on the state. It doesn't appear to matter as much in states like FL or MO. But central PA is Trump Territory. I think Toomey, Heck and Ayotte are the toughest situations trying to find that right distancing balance.
 
I would be very, very surprised if Toomey uses the word Trump once for the rest of the campaign cycle. Central PA isn't going to vote for Katie McGinty.
 
No it won't. But it also may decide not to vote for senate. I agree folks like Toomey should be as silent about Trump as possible.
 
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Random.
 
Ross has gotten a ton of mud thrown her way but she's also Cate Blanchett unlikable. I'm going to vote for her but even if she wins she'll be a one termer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
cville deac said:
Townie, I do think Pub senate candidates have an extremely fine line to walk. If you repudiate Trump too loudly, you really risk alienating strong Trump supporters who may just vote for him and not vote down ballot. OTOH, if you don't distance yourself enough, you risk alienating independent voters you're trying to lure in. And it depends on the state. It doesn't appear to matter as much in states like FL or MO. But central PA is Trump Territory. I think Toomey, Heck and Ayotte are the toughest situations trying to find that right distancing balance.
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Rubio's going to win a reasonably close election, but he does risk alienating Trump voters by criticizing Wikileaks and Trump's rigged elections claim. His criticisms are perfectly valid and should be bipartisan, but Trump voters are far from universally rational. The polling about Pence, Trump, and Cruz being the future of the GOP certainly don't bode well for a sane HRC alternative in 2020.
 
Random House of Reps note - in Bucks County, outside of Philly, the Republican incumbent is retiring. His brother moved back to PA from CA to run as his replacement, and they kept the signage and whatnot basically the same, just swapped out the first name. Dems started running near constant ads a few weeks back that start "Brian Fitzpatrick is NOT Mike Fitzpatrick." So now the Republicans have responded with near constant ads. Anyway, now we're flooded with TV ads for yet another race.

Fitzpatrick has sent a cease and desist letter to TV stations about ads that tie him to Trump:

Link
 
avalon said:
Random House of Reps note - in Bucks County, outside of Philly, the Republican incumbent is retiring. His brother moved back to PA from CA to run as his replacement, and they kept the signage and whatnot basically the same, just swapped out the first name. Dems started running near constant ads a few weeks back that start "Brian Fitzpatrick is NOT Mike Fitzpatrick." So now the Republicans have responded with near constant ads. Anyway, now we're flooded with TV ads for yet another race.

Fitzpatrick has sent a cease and desist letter to TV stations about ads that tie him to Trump:

Link
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Really should have gone with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
 
cville deac said:
What was Rubio's stance on the Puerto Rico bailout?
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According to the interwebz, he was quoted as originally against any bailout (and even wrote an op-ed about it), but then voted for the financial relief package in June. So there's that.
 
CantStandYa said:
According to the interwebz, he was quoted as originally against any bailout (and even wrote an op-ed about it), but then voted for the financial relief package in June. So there's that.
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I don't get why congressional Pubs were so short sighted on that issue. It's not like their base cares deeply about a handful of hedge funds, especially when Puerto Rico has been suffering horribly. Puerto Ricans have been moving to FL in droves the last few years. Like to the tune of 1-2mil. They're eligible to vote upon establishing a residence in FL and 70-80% of them will be voting Dem. You'd think FL Pub congress members would have realized that by opposing a bailout they were turning FL bluer by the day. And I'm not talking a money bailout. You either let Puerto Rico file for Ch 9 bankruptcy protection or draft a bill (like they ended up doing) giving Puerto Rico similar protection.
 
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