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2020 Senate Races

Dems must think PA is the best chance of a pick up of the contested races; wouldn't send Bubba there otherwise.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Dems must think PA is the best chance of a pick up of the contested races; wouldn't send Bubba there otherwise.
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It is. McGinty seems to have a pretty consistent small lead recently. And I agree that the reason I'm slightly favoring Hassan even though the polls have been even is I think Clinton's margin there will be big enough to help Hassan. I'm actually a bit surprised Ayotte's poll #s haven't taken a hit given the recent Trump revelations right after she called him a role model.

And the reason I didn't list WI, FL or IL is I think we have a pretty good idea which way those races are going. I mean, an upset in any of those 3 is possible but doubtful.
 
RJKarl said:
You forgot about WI which is in the bag for Dems.
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I didn't forget about Wisconsin, you dumbass. The numbers I gave assume Wisconsin for the Democrats. Why don't you add up the numbers before you make a fool of yourself?

After Illinois & Wisconsin, the Democrats still need 3 of the 7 states I listed to get to 50-50. If I thought Wisconsin was a tossup, I would have included it with those other 7 states and my numbers would have reflected that.

Here is the RCP map of it for you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/2016_elections_senate_map.html

The only thing different here from what I posted is that RCP has moved Rubio to the GOP side, making it 47-47 with the other six states I listed as tossups. The Democrats still need to win 3 of those (as I posted) to get to 50-50.

This isn't rocket science.
 
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Bob sr has been testy since he realized that Mr Jones knows what's happening.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk
 
ImTheCaptain said:
Toomey is such a chump
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RCP has McGinty up 5.

Toomey isn't that bad of a dude--he's perfectly reasonable on like 9 out of 10 issues. In any other era of national politics, he'd be a reasonable Republican. McGinty is very much in the vein of Clinton when it comes to centrist Dems too, very business-friendly.

I honestly fear for how this SEPTA strike could affect the national election. If we can't get 400,000 people in and out of Philly easily that day, IDK what that means at the polls.
 
The TWU isn't asking for super unreasonable stuff--they just want the same pensions for lower management as middle management is getting, as well as breaks (which were recommended by the NTSB) and their scheduled raises.

SEPTA playing hardball doesn't make a lot of sense. Philly has the money to pay for this set aside already.
 
Buddy of my from upstate posts about it regularly. Interesting woman with a very interesting name.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
Why would trains in an out of Philly effect where people are voting, you vote where you live not where you work?
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People are experiencing 2+ hr delays. If your workday is 9-5, that means getting on before 7 and getting home around 7. Might dissuade people from voting in a state without early voting. If it affects turnout at all, that's not good.

My office extended flex time during this period, so ppl can work 7-3 or 10-6 or whatever, but not everyone works in that kind of environment.
 
PhDeac said:
Buddy of my from upstate posts about it regularly. Interesting woman with a very interesting name.
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I wish there were more good Working Families candidates out there. Bernie is stumping for her hard. She seems legit.
 
TownieDeac said:
I wish there were more good Working Families candidates out there. Bernie is stumping for her hard. She seems legit.
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Yeah. Yet another politician I may have crossed paths with at Duke.
 
TownieDeac said:
People are experiencing 2+ hr delays. If your workday is 9-5, that means getting on before 7 and getting home around 7. Might dissuade people from voting in a state without early voting. If it affects turnout at all, that's not good.

My office extended flex time during this period, so ppl can work 7-3 or 10-6 or whatever, but not everyone works in that kind of environment.
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Especially if the polling places start reporting long wait times. You'll see people who rely on SEPTA bail on the whole thing. But hey, no need for PA to allow early voting.
 
CantStandYa said:
Especially if the polling places start reporting long wait times. You'll see people who rely on SEPTA bail on the whole thing. But hey, no need for PA to allow early voting.
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and/or or just make voting day a holiday
 
538 now has:

NV - 60/40 Dem
MO- 57.9/42.1 Dem
IN - 59.8/40.2 Dem
PA- 76.3/26.7 Dem
NH - 62.4-37.6 Dem

IL/WI in the bag for Dems -NC/FL in the bag for GOP
 
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