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2020 Senate Races

RJKarl said:
538 now has:

NV - 60/40 Dem
MO- 57.9/42.1 Dem
IN - 59.8/40.2 Dem
PA- 76.3/26.7 Dem
NH - 62.4-37.6 Dem

IL/WI in the bag for Dems -NC/FL in the bag for GOP
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Yeah, McGinty seems like a consistent leader in the polls now. But those other 4 have been going back and forth both ways, sometimes kinda wildly. Bayh would be a sure thing had he been running for re-election, but what he's done for the last 6 years, what he's earned in doing so and living entirely out of state during that time is really hurting him. He's a true toss-up at this point. The 1 out of that group I want to see win the most is Kandar. IL and FL are in the bag - Kirk made sure of that a few days ago. I'd still favor Feingold in WI, but not sure it's quite in the bag. And NC is still close, though Burr should be favored.
 
I was just putting up the current #s.

Feingold is 90.7%.

Bayh could lose. I' was surprised at how high McGinty's number is.
 
RJKarl said:
I was just putting up the current #s.

Feingold is 90.7%.

Bayh could lose. I' was surprised at how high McGinty's number is.
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Final Marquette poll has HRC up 6, but Feingold only up 1. Clinton campaign back up advertising in WI. May be more for Feingold than HRC. Dems don't win the Senate without WI.

538 and Princeton models diverge on presidential, but pretty close on Senate (538: 51/49, 68%, PEC: 50/50, 61%).
 
Find it odd that Richard Burr is using the Deborah Ross refuses to release her tax returns angle in his commercials
 


I hadn't heard McGinty's Delco accent before - she sounds exactly like Tina Fey's impression of a suburban Philly mom.
 
I saw an ad for McGinty yesterday featuring Joe Biden. He even says malarkey!

 
I lived over thirty years in Delco. People in Upper Darby spoke differently than those in Havertown and Broomall. :)
 
Newest Quinnipiac poll has Ross up 4% over Burr, and Cooper up 2% over McCrory.
 
538 has Burr with a ~60% chance to win, but 6 of the last 7 polls have Ross ahead or tied. Seems odd.
 
Senate is even more impossible to predict with fewer polls, throw in more uncertainty and it's kinda of a mess. Also pretty sure Silvers method ties national vote to down ballot senate so that could also be why.

Post analysis is going to be very interesting this year with several political questions most likely getting fairly definitive answers. First, is a race real that volatile and poll bounces real, pretty much Silver vs Wang. Second, does ground game actually matter where it's essentially strong ground game vs no ground game.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Doubt it, it's just a really volatile election cycle across the board.
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I think this whole cycle has broken Silver. Tons of confidence coming off 2008/2012 (especially the latter, when Romney's people were all "the polls are wrong!"), but then he whiffs on Trump in the primary and gets regularly thrown by anomalous polls and bad data.

Regardless of who wins, this election will be a referendum on the existing prediction models.
 
What's interesting about the models is they only take into consideration polls. This year there are way more online polls, and automated polls than live caller, or in other words shitty polls and they all get thrown into the models. Once early voting starts someone needs to design a model that incorporates that information.

For example all the models, even Princeton, have NV at best 50% chance based off all the polls which show a minor Trump lead, minor Hillary lead. However a majority of the state votes early, like almost all of it, and there is information on that. So early voting 2012 Obama built a firewall of 71,000 votes from Clarke county and won by +7. This year Hillary has built a firewall of 61,000 and still has today's early voting which probably will push it further and very close to Obama.

So you know what's better for any model than hypotheticals which all polls are, is actual data. Feed that information into the models and let it adjust with actual tabulated results and historical information. I'd love to see how different peoples models adjust with real information fed into it.
 
doofus is a "never blame the models" guy

kenpom 4 pres
 
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