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2020 Senate Races

BarcaDeac said:
I don't trust anyone who is swayed either way by a political ad 2 days before an election
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But that doesn't really matter does it?
 
avalon said:
It's the nightly news, so these at least are aimed at those who watch the news live. (So..... my parents.) There are a lot of ads during sports here also, but I imagine the nightly news slots are way cheaper than the Eagles game.

Next commercial breaks:

Anti Santarsiero (House)
Pro Hillary
Anti Trump
Anti Fitzpatrick (House v Santarsiero)
Anti McGinty

I feel terrible for people who actually watch the nightly news, almost every ad was political. (I just left whatever was on while I was doing some stuff on the computer.)
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I'm in Philly now and just saw one of the anti McGinty commercials followed by the "Taxin' Steve Santarsiero" spot. Nice to see new ads before Tuesday.

Man, I love this "Shady Katie McGinty" ad.
 
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Toomey wins PA. Yet another swamp rat remains undrained.
 
Serious question:
Any chance an establishment pub in the Senate switches parties just limit power the slightest bit in the three branches?
 
dot com said:
Serious question:
Any chance an establishment pub in the Senate switches parties just limit power the slightest bit in the three branches?
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Put country over personal power? Ahahahah!
 
dot com said:
Serious question:
Any chance an establishment pub in the Senate switches parties just limit power the slightest bit in the three branches?
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Not a chance. How many times do I have to tell you that pubs get in line.
 
TX Rep Michael McCaul, Chair of House Homeland Security, allegedly under consideration to be Secretary of Homeland Security. Wouid have a good chance to knock off Cruz in a 2018 primary. Interesting to see how much Trump wants to take down Cruz and Flake in 2018 vs his cabinet. Bridgegate moved Christie out of the running for AG and moved Rudy from HS to AG.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
TX Rep Michael McCaul, Chair of House Homeland Security, allegedly under consideration to be Secretary of Homeland Security. Wouid have a good chance to knock off Cruz in a 2018 primary. Interesting to see how much Trump wants to take down Cruz and Flake in 2018 vs his cabinet. Bridgegate moved Christie out of the running for AG and moved Rudy from HS to AG.
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If a Trumpbot takes down Flake in the primary, AZ could be a Dem pick-up.
 
cville deac said:
If a Trumpbot takes down Flake in the primary, AZ could be a Dem pick-up.
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Two other potential 2018 Trump GOP Senate frenemy targets: Kasich and Susanna Martinez. Kasich could help Trump by taking out Brown and Martinez could be an unexpected blue state pick up.
 
FMR, what about other potential cabinet picks from the senate (e.g. Sessions). Do they just hold runoff elections, or what?
 
wakephan09 said:
FMR, what about other potential cabinet picks from the senate (e.g. Sessions). Do they just hold runoff elections, or what?
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Depends on the state. Governor appoints a replacement. May be the remainder of the term, but some have set limits (VA is within 12 months). Kinda doubt HRC was ever serious about Warren or Brown as VP, but had they won a GOP Governor wouid have replaced them.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Depends on the state. Governor appoints a replacement. May be the remainder of the term, but some have set limits (VA is within 12 months). Kinda doubt HRC was ever serious about Warren or Brown as VP, but had they won a GOP Governor wouid have replaced them.
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Will be curious to see what happens. I'm sure Republicans won't risk their majority by nominating cabinet members from states with D governors.
 
wakephan09 said:
Will be curious to see what happens. I'm sure Republicans won't risk their majority by nominating cabinet members from states with D governors.
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Fortunately for Pubs, there aren't that many Dem governors.
 
Ayotte allegedly may be approached for a spot in Trump's cabinet. She was a good pragmatic Senator and the best name so far linked to the Trump administration.
 
The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):
  • 12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
  • 23 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 30 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats
In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

In my opinion Alabama is a lost cause for the Dems and MI could be close but Peters probably pulls it out as Biden will blow Trump out in MI and he can ride the coattails.

As for the Pubs, the most vulnerable seats look to be AZ (McSally/Kelly), CO (Garnder/Hickenlooper), ME (Collins/Gideon), NC (Tillis/Cunningham), MT (Daines/Bullock), and now Iowa (Ernst/Greenfield). Its possible Kansas, Kentucky, and both Georgia could be in play but it would take all the cards to fall exactly right for those seats to really be in play.

My prediction this time is a Pubs pick up Bama and Dems pick up AZ, CO, ME, and MT and retake control of Senate regardless of who the President is.
 
DeacWatcher said:
The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):
  • 12 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2020 and 35 seats not up, for a total of 47 seats
  • 23 Republican seats up for reelection in 2020 and 30 seats not up, for a total of 53 seats
In a reversal from 2018, the Republicans will be playing defense, with many more seats up than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that most of these are in deep red states and are considered safe.

In my opinion Alabama is a lost cause for the Dems and MI could be close but Peters probably pulls it out as Biden will blow Trump out in MI and he can ride the coattails.

As for the Pubs, the most vulnerable seats look to be AZ (McSally/Kelly), CO (Garnder/Hickenlooper), ME (Collins/Gideon), NC (Tillis/Cunningham), MT (Daines/Bullock), and now Iowa (Ernst/Greenfield). Its possible Kansas, Kentucky, and both Georgia could be in play but it would take all the cards to fall exactly right for those seats to really be in play.

My prediction this time is a Pubs pick up Bama and Dems pick up AZ, CO, ME, and MT and retake control of Senate regardless of who the President is.
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Doesn't your count end up with a 50-50 Senate split?

I think NC is likely to flip as well.
 
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