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2020 Senate Races

Yeah doofus would definitely let A.I kenpom run things. If he did his beloved cubs would never have won, just think of the odds why even play those last 3 games.
 
538 is a pretty conservative model. Its models include more historical polls that most of the other ones, so recent swings might not be shown until there's enough of them.
 
That's quite possibly the complete opposite of their model, well it is conservative in giving equal weighting to the likelihood of 50/50 but they are the fastest model to react to new polls.
 
That wasn't how I understood the 538 model.
 
The Senate takeover number has dropped below 60% for the first time. However, the most likely outcomes if Hillary wins are 51-49 followed by 52-48 with 50/05 and 53-47 in a virtual tie for third.
 
RJKarl said:
The Senate takeover number has dropped below 60% for the first time. However, the most likely outcomes if Hillary wins are 51-49 followed by 52-48 with 50/05 and 53-47 in a virtual tie for third.
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51 is the magic number for Dems. Can nuke the filibuster and get Scalia replaced by someone younger and more liberal immediately if GOP refuses to confirm Garland in the lame duck session. No reason not to, since it would slow down RBG and Breyer replacements. 50/50 is dicey because Kaine's seat may go 'Pub in the 2017 special election. That's when Garland might resurface.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
51 is the magic number for Dems. Can nuke the filibuster and get Scalia replaced by someone younger and more liberal immediately if GOP refuses to confirm Garland in the lame duck session. No reason not to, since it would slow down RBG and Breyer replacements. 50/50 is dicey because Kaine's seat may go 'Pub in the 2017 special election. That's when Garland might resurface.
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If Hillary wins, I'd be surprised if Garland isn't approved before the inauguration. I wouldn't be surprised if RBG after the end of the current session.
 
I don't think the Democrats will have more than 50 seats when this is over. Right now it is 46-46 with these 8 either toss-up or at least in play:

New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin & Nevada.

Personally, I think Rubio, Ayotte & Burr will win to give the Republicans 49; Feingold will win to give the Democrats 47.

That leaves Bayh vs Young in Indiana, Heck vs Cortez in Nevada, Toomey vs McGinty in Pennsylvania and Blount vs Kander in Missouri. My personal upset pick is that Young will pull out a win against Bayh. Indiana is trending heavily Republican as we near the election.

Don't see how in the world that anyone thinks the Democrats can get to 53....or even 52, for that matter. Agree that 51 is the critical number...especially for the GOP if Hillary wins the election. I'd say there is a 90% chance that it will end up 50-50 or 51-49, one way or the other.

ETA: If someone wanted to have an election contest, a good way to do it would be to use those 8 senate contests & pick out 12 president competitive states for a 20-pick contest, with one point for each correct pick. The 12 states I would use would be: Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia & Iowa.

(I realize that 2 or 3 of those states may not be considered all that close, but I was just trying to pick 12 of the closest ones to get to an even 20 for the contest.)
 
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RJKarl said:
If Hillary wins, I'd be surprised if Garland isn't approved before the inauguration. I wouldn't be surprised if RBG after the end of the current session.
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GOP won't do HRC any favors. They'll slow play every nomination as long as they can.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
GOP won't do HRC any favors. They'll slow play every nomination as long as they can.
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Approving Garland before she gets in covers their own asses against a really liberal nomination. With a majority comes the nuclear option.

I wonder if Kamala Harris would give up her Senate seat for one on the Supreme Court. She was near the top of the list a couple of times for Obama.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
GOP won't do HRC any favors. They'll slow play every nomination as long as they can.
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You mean Tim Kaine because it is doubtful Hillary even makes it to the inauguration. Hard to get there from jail.
 
RJKarl said:
Approving Garland before she gets in covers their own asses against a really liberal nomination. With a majority comes the nuclear option.

I wonder if Kamala Harris would give up her Senate seat for one on the Supreme Court. She was near the top of the list a couple of times for Obama.
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Harris has her eye on VP or CA Governor down the line. Two other possibilities with Bay Area ties: Goodwin Liu (46) or Jennifer Granholm (57). JG may be too old.
 
TheReff said:
You mean Tim Kaine because it is doubtful Hillary even makes it to the inauguration. Hard to get there from jail.
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So true. Hillary still has many radio presents in her closet, and when she's indicted they'll all be revealed.
 
Last five commercials in order:

Anti Toomey
Pro Toomey
Anti McGinty
Pro McGinty
Anti McGinty
 
avalon said:
Last five commercials in order:

Anti Toomey
Pro Toomey
Anti McGinty
Pro McGinty
Anti McGinty
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Still don't get TV ads anymore. People don't have DVRs? Trump ran a cartoon ad on SNL last night. Initially thought it was part of the show, but fast forwarded through that shit once it was clear it was real.
 
It's the nightly news, so these at least are aimed at those who watch the news live. (So..... my parents.) There are a lot of ads during sports here also, but I imagine the nightly news slots are way cheaper than the Eagles game.

Next commercial breaks:

Anti Santarsiero (House)
Pro Hillary
Anti Trump
Anti Fitzpatrick (House v Santarsiero)
Anti McGinty

I feel terrible for people who actually watch the nightly news, almost every ad was political. (I just left whatever was on while I was doing some stuff on the computer.)
 
Trying to watch Sunday Ticket and there's a long Trump gloom and doom documentary type ad.

I think the late blitz by Trump and those Future45 ads will probably help him.

It usually makes sense that people pick their candidate early, but these ads are about convincing people to vote at all and vote for Trump by convincing them how much America sucks.
 
I don't trust anyone who is swayed either way by a political ad 2 days before an election
 
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