• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2021-22 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 25-9 (13-7), KP#33

PhDeac said:
Wow. ESPN has us 6th in the ACC at 10.9-9.1. Tied with Cuse.
Click to expand...

Went to look up the last time we were .500 or above in the ACC and was shocked that it was 2016-17
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Not sure what the numbers you have there mean, as there are 20 conference games. For any stat nerds, I'd argue with like 90% confidence we finish anywhere from 4th to 10th, with the ability for 3rd if everything goes perfectly, and lower than 10th if the wheels really fall off or something unexpected happens. So hard for me to gauge it because I feel like we just don't know where to put VT and Northwestern, and LSU and Oregon St for that matter. Is VT really a top 3 or 4 ACC team? They have lost to every top 40 team they have played. Is Northwestern a contender or pretender in the Big 10? They won at Maryland and against Georgia, but both those teams are towards the bottom of their leagues. They also lost to Providence who I see as a bubble team or slightly better. Give me the games against BC, Louisville, Miami, and FSU and I feel I'll have such a better idea of just where we stack up. Really important to win a minimum of 2 of those games given the brutal slate we have starting with the home game against Duke.
Click to expand...


smart-genius.gif
 
deachus said:
ooh very bold prediction
Click to expand...

Lol yea I mean a 90% confidence interval is never really a bold prediction. Just impossible for me to say anything more right now with so many unknowns. The fact that I think it is reasonable to say there is a very minimal chance of finishing below 10th is great given the past decade.
 
Just did some more research because what better way of procrastination during finals week is there than this?

ESPN's BPI has us at 53rd and 7th in the league. While our Kenpom SOS rank (288) is the worst in the ACC and will remain so for the entire year, there are four other ACC schools in the 200s of SOS and they all have at least one more loss than us. ESPN gives a Strength of Record (SOR) ranking that I think is much more useful as it rewards winning, not just scheduling. We rank 20th nationally, and second in the ACC, with a big gap behind us to Carolina at 38.

Our SOS can conceivably hurt us, and the most likely manner would be if we end up tied with one or two ACC teams in the standings and are on the bubble alongside them. The superior SOS gets the nod barring a recent head to head beatdown or something. However, it's important to remember that after 20 ACC games plus the conference tourney, our SOS will be higher than almost any mid major team on the bubble, even if it is worst in the ACC.

If we win 9 games in conference play plus 1 in Brooklyn, there's almost no way we're not in the tourmanet. A 20 win ACC team not getting in would be crazy even in a down year for the league.

It's way too early to be thinking about our hypothetical tournament resume anyway. I think the experts and the metrics are catching on and if I had to make a specific guess I'd say we finish 5th in the league behind Duke, Carolina, VT, and Louisville.
 
Last edited:
it's nice to see an actual student here, rather than all of us ex-students. Thanks for joining the discussion. We have been there when the Joel was full and loud and we'll fill it again, but your casual fan is going to need just a little bit more before they start arranging their schedules around games.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
If we win 9 games in conference play plus 1 in Brooklyn, there's almost no way we're not in the tourmanet. A 20 win ACC team not getting in would be crazy even in a down year for the league.
Click to expand...

State went 22-11 (9-9) in 2019 and didn't get in. I'd think we'd have to do considerably better than 9-11 in conference to make it.
 
It's going to depend a lot on who we beat, along with how many. Beat Duke, UNC, Louisville and .500 will not be an issue. Also need VT to finish the season strong, they need to be good. They are 1-3 against Top 60 teams.

No letdowns the next three games. After that, the only chance for a bad loss would be Pitt at home.
 
We have beaten who we are supposed to beat so far, unlike the teams under [Redacted] and Manning (Fuck you Ron!). Let's keep doing that the rest of the season and steal a few more like we did against VT. Forbes has this train on the right track!
 
cheeseheads12 said:
When was the last time we avoided the Tuesday ACCT slot? 2010 or something?
Click to expand...

2010 we were the 5th seed and played the 12th seed on day one, getting pounded by Miami and Reggie Johnson

2009 we were the 2nd seed and started the tournament on day two, getting pounded by #7 Maryland. That was the last time WF has played in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. Also the last time WF has avoided playing on the opening day of the ACCT
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Just did some more research because what better way of procrastination during finals week is there than this?

ESPN's BPI has us at 53rd and 7th in the league. While our Kenpom SOS rank (288) is the worst in the ACC and will remain so for the entire year, there are four other ACC schools in the 200s of SOS and they all have at least one more loss than us. ESPN gives a Strength of Record (SOR) ranking that I think is much more useful as it rewards winning, not just scheduling. We rank 20th nationally, and second in the ACC, with a big gap behind us to Carolina at 38.

Our SOS can conceivably hurt us, and the most likely manner would be if we end up tied with one or two ACC teams in the standings and are on the bubble alongside them. The superior SOS gets the nod barring a recent head to head beatdown or something. However, it's important to remember that after 20 ACC games plus the conference tourney, our SOS will be higher than almost any mid major team on the bubble, even if it is worst in the ACC.

If we win 9 games in conference play plus 1 in Brooklyn, there's almost no way we're not in the tourmanet. A 20 win ACC team not getting in would be crazy even in a down year for the league.

It's way too early to be thinking about our hypothetical tournament resume anyway. I think the experts and the metrics are catching on and if I had to make a specific guess I'd say we finish 5th in the league behind Duke, Carolina, VT, and Louisville.
Click to expand...

We're finishing 3rd!



maybe 2nd
 
We’re going to win the acc championship by beating K in his final conference game

#BookIt
 
LilburnDeac said:
The Tuesday ACCT games didn't begin until 2015. But the last time we didn't play in the Opening Round was 2009.
Click to expand...

That's right. Hell if Forbes has us playing our opener in the ACCT on Wednesday then I'll chalk that up to a year well done.
 
The ACC would send out Lenny Wurtz, Dick Papparo, and TV Teddy V. The extra ref on hand would be Jamie Luckie. Nobody is beating Duke in the ACC tourney if the ACC has anything to do with it.
 
Looking at KP's projections, the ACC has:

Duke 15-5
UNC 13-7
---
EVERYONE ELSE BETWEEN 12-8 and 8-12

----

Pitt 4-16

Not sure Pitt will win 4, or that Duke will lose 5, but otherwise, agree that the middle 13 teams are pretty close. Further, given that "priors" (power ratings from last year) haven't been entirely factored out of the projections, you can reasonably claim that, among ACC teams, Duke is the only team that has clearly played better than WF so far this year.

Fortunes can and will fluctuate, but pretty safe to say that barring catastrophic injuries, this WF team can beat any team on the schedule (going into Saturday, VT was projected as the 2nd toughest game on WF's schedule and WF dominated the Hokies).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top