2022 races (and 2021 for weird commonwealths like Virginia)

[06deacon]

Lol what. The economy is reopened and people are back to work.

 

[WakeandBake]

lol brilliant plan!

 

[Louis Gossett Jr]

Honest question: Do you really think it is difficult to beat the Party of Trump in 2021? Y'all won this state a year ago. What changed?

2020-21: Biden (D) wins WH; McAuliffe (D) LOSES by 2-3

2016-17: Trump (R) wins WH; Gillespie (R) LOSES by 9

2012-13: Obama (D) retains WH: McAuliffe (D) WINS by 2.5

2008-09: Obama (D) wins WH; Deeds (D) LOSES by 17

2004-05: Bush (R) retains WH; Kilgore (R) LOSES by 6

2000-01: Bush (R) wins WH; Earley (R) LOSES by 5

1996-97: Clinton (D) retains WH; Beyer (D) LOSES by 13

1992-93: Clinton (D) wins WH; Terry (D) LOSES by 18

1988-89: Bush (R) wins WH; Coleman (R) LOSES by <1

1984-85: Reagan (R) retains WH; Durrette (R) LOSES by 10

1980-81: Reagan (R) wins WH; Coleman (R) LOSES by 7

1976-77: Carter (D) wins WH; Howell (D) LOSES by 13

1972-73: Nixon (R) retains WH; Godwin (R) WINS by 1.2

 

[TownieDeac]

Their terms or racism, xenophobia and made up shit about CRT and cancel culture. Tell me how leftists or liberals counter that.

lol how liberals react to the reactionaries?

because there are so few material, universal, policy-based improvements to daily life that either party offers their constituents these days, almost everything is reduced to culture

there are inciting events that happen (like Ferguson or George Floyd Protests) that get filtered through news media and culture. liberal-aligned media use those filters to show rioting, property damage, and fringe sloganeering like abolish police (and ignore the cultural context or historical conditions around police and communities of color). television and film either produce cringey afternoon specials or pull problematic old episodes. what little thoughtful and well-articulated response there is to inciting events is so atomized that it trickles down to such a tiny part of the population--the holistic view is one that can be sarcastic, cynical, or reactionary about it on facebook. and even though democrats didn't nationally endorse any coherent police reform or defund or abolish ideology (and were at pains to remind everyone about that), they still got absolutely hammered on it by the GOP.

that playbook, which is that a central thesis emerges from a generationally charismatic politician (clinton, obama, trump) or from inciting events in history, it gets to be the predominant cultural narrative for four years, and then there's a massive cultural backlash to it. as it happens, republicans are keen observers of the same PC politics liberals use. they've adopted the same bodies and spaces language that liberals were using 10 years ago to accommodate a changing workforce and culture but applying it to white identity now (go listen to Hawley, he's just doing pc HR grievance politics for white guys).

the primary reason the GOP are more effective than dems at controlling the narrative is their boosters like the Kochs pay activists directly rather thank think tanks. the DNC mostly just pay consultants to focus group their message down to the most milquetoast and blandly appealing thing they can get away with, and by the time it's filtered back through the media and culture, it's ripe for conservative reactionary backlash.

 

[Demonwolverine]

Can someone explain to me how this inflation is Biden’s fault? Janet Yellen has been telling anyone that will listen for several years that this was coming.

 

[Shooshmoo]

It’s hard to see such predictable condescending elitist bullshit from a Democrat and not feel a little schadenfreude about your election losses.

Sure, my election losses, not yours. I think you stand to lose a lot more than I do with republicans controlling shit.

More people identify as democrats than republicans. Republicans just know how to get their base enthused (particularly when dems "control" 2 of the branches). Rather than trying to pander to an unpanderable base, the focus on getting people who might actually vote for a democrat enthused and out to vote.

 

[PhDeac]

It’s hard to see such predictable condescending elitist bullshit from a Democrat and not feel a little schadenfreude about your election losses.

Let’s try this again - The Democratic Party *desperately* needs dumb voters. Some of those dumb voters will be racist, many of them will not be racist. There are already a lot of racist Democratic voters. As such, the Democratic Party has to appeal to and win more dumb voters *despite* their occasional racism.

There is zero point in a *large tent* Democratic party if the tent isn’t large enough to actually compete with Republicans.

This is where we disagree. You seem to think Democrats can appeal to "racist" voters while I think Democrats need a firm anti-racism message to fully appeal to anti-racist voters. I don't think Democrats can split the middle on this. Going all in on anti-racism will piss off many white voters and send them to the Republican party. We've seen it happen on every civil rights issue over the last 60 years. But it's going to be much more beneficial to chase after non-college educated BIPOC voters with an anti-racism platform that also speaks directly to their issues than to play hide the ball with an anti-racism agenda to keep chasing non-college educated white voters.

 

[Louis Gossett Jr]

Can’t wait to learn what pushed a Republican wave in the midterms next year. It certainly won’t be that Americans just vote against whoever is in power because nothing every really changes for them, or if it does it gets messaged away with some cultural grievance. Won’t be that the party in power usually has crippling midterm losses, and that was before the incredible partisan divide that flows through everything now. I’m sure it will be gas prices.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

lol you can’t make this shit up, the political equivalent of that sideshow Bob stepping on rakes gif

 

[Kory]

Can’t wait to learn what pushed a Republican wave in the midterms next year. It certainly won’t be that Americans just vote against whoever is in power because nothing every really changes for them, or if it does it gets messaged away with some cultural grievance. Won’t be that the party in power usually has crippling midterm losses, and that was before the incredible partisan divide that flows through everything now. I’m sure it will be gas prices.

well no you see it was bad messaging

 

[Deleted member 7528]

Can someone explain to me how this inflation is Biden’s fault? Janet Yellen has been telling anyone that will listen for several years that this was coming.

If only she were in a position to effect the money supply during those years.

 

[PhDeac]

Speaking of gas prices.

 

[Liquid Karma]

Can someone explain to me how this inflation is Biden’s fault? Janet Yellen has been telling anyone that will listen for several years that this was coming.

Just because it's not his fault doesn't mean his administration can stick their head in the sand and ignore the problem.

Same with the ports.

Democrat policies didn't cause either, but their chances of maintaining control of government hinge on effective management of those very real problems, unlike bullshit trumped up crises like the border or CRT.

 

[Shooshmoo]

Can’t wait to learn what pushed a Republican wave in the midterms next year. It certainly won’t be that Americans just vote against whoever is in power because nothing every really changes for them, or if it does it gets messaged away with some cultural grievance. Won’t be that the party in power usually has crippling midterm losses, and that was before the incredible partisan divide that flows through everything now. I’m sure it will be gas prices.

Meh -- I fully expect the Republican wave next year, but this time it feels different. Republicans are unashamedly and unabashedly going all in on voting laws (to add to their rampant gerrymandering) that may make next year the last year where we see the major midterm wave.

 

[Kory]

see this is prime RJ territory - to come in here and give us the new DNC playbook

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

This is where we disagree. You seem to think Democrats can appeal to "racist" voters while I think Democrats need a firm anti-racism message to fully appeal to anti-racist voters. I don't think Democrats can split the middle on this. Going all in on anti-racism will piss off many white voters and send them to the Republican party. We've seen it happen on every civil rights issue over the last 60 years. But it's going to be much more beneficial to chase after non-college educated BIPOC voters with an anti-racism platform that also speaks directly to their issues than to play hide the ball with an anti-racism agenda to keep chasing non-college educated white voters.

I said dumb, I never mentioned race. Seems ignorant and elitist as shit to assume that racism is the #1 agenda item for every white person without a bachelors degree. You can bisect, dissect, trisect the American electorate however you choose, American politics is determined geographically, not racially, and *geographically* the Democratic Party needs uneducated white votes. That’s just the bottom line. You writing off all non-educated white votes as racist and unnecessary is you dooming your own party. This notion that we have to pick white voters *or* black voters is ignorant, offensive, melodramatic, and completely untrue.

 

[Liquid Karma]

Interestingly Powell is about to speak, and will likely address some of the inflationary issues.

 

[Deleted member 7528]

I said dumb, I never mentioned race. Seems ignorant and elitist as shit to assume that racism is the #1 agenda item for every white person without a bachelors degree. You can bisect, dissect, trisect the American electorate however you choose, American politics is determined geographically, not racially, and *geographically* the Democratic Party needs uneducated white votes. That’s just the bottom line. You writing off all non-educated white votes as racist and unnecessary is you dooming your own party. This notion that we have to pick white voters *or* black voters is ignorant, offensive, melodramatic, and completely untrue.

MDMH is putting on a clinic today. Not much brings he and I together but he's on one today.

 

[PhDeac]

I said dumb, I never mentioned race. Seems ignorant and elitist as shit to assume that racism is the #1 agenda item for every white person without a bachelors degree. You can bisect, dissect, trisect the American electorate however you choose, American politics is determined geographically, not racially, and *geographically* the Democratic Party needs uneducated white votes. That’s just the bottom line. You writing off all non-educated white votes as racist and unnecessary is you dooming your own party. This notion that we have to pick white voters *or* black voters is ignorant, offensive, melodramatic, and completely untrue.

You said "racist." I did not say "racism is the #1 agenda item for every white person without a bachelors degree." Racism isn't an agenda. It's a framing device by which most people in this country see the world. The questions are which voters benefit from that and which voters don't or which voters challenge that framing and which ones don't. I think Democrats need to challenge that framing and I acknowledge that will lose them voters just like it did when Democrats supported the Civil Rights Act.

I'm not writing off "all non-educated white voters as racist." I am realizing that those are the voters Democrats have been losing for decades since supporting civil rights. Ignoring the historical context for any of our political issues dooms the party to pursuing half-measures that turn off more voters than they attract.

 

[Shooshmoo]

MDMH is putting on a clinic today. Not much brings he and I together but he's on one today.

You guys are two peas in a pod!