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2022 races (and 2021 for weird commonwealths like Virginia)

myDeaconmyhand said:
It’s a general election, party switching is irrelevant because every voter gets the same ballot. How much more data do you need to acknowledge that 2020 Biden support isn’t resulting in increased Democratic Party support?

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I just mean switching the party they vote for not switching registration.

Telling me that previously, 60% of a demographic group voted for a candidate in one party and then in a different election 62% of that same demographic group voted for a different candidate in a different party doesn’t tell me much without more data. Maybe the exact same people voted for the exact same party but a big chunk decided to just stay home, so the percentages look wildly different but the number of people that voted for the gop is the same. There is no evidence of a huge swing in support for the GOP without more information.

Having said that. I agree with you that Biden’s support was slim and largely based on anti-trumpism. That is not a winning strategy when trump is not on the ballot.
 
birdman said:
I just mean switching the party they vote for not switching registration.

Telling me that previously, 60% of a demographic group voted for a candidate in one party and then in a different election 62% of that same demographic group voted for a different candidate in a different party doesn’t tell me much without more data. Maybe the exact same people voted for the exact same party but a big chunk decided to just stay home, so the percentages look wildly different but the number of people that voted for the gop is the same. There is no evidence of a huge swing in support for the GOP without more information.

Having said that. I agree with you that Biden’s support was slim and largely based on anti-trumpism. That is not a winning strategy when trump is not on the ballot.
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Thanks for responding, I better understand your questions regarding the statistical percentages. I guess my confusion with those questions, is what is the practical difference between increased support for Republicans or decreased Democratic voter participation? The election outcome is the same and the voting percentage data is the same either way.

To put it more succinctly, its a common maxim from browbeating Dems that “not voting for Dems is the same as voting for Republicans” - wouldn’t this be an example of statistics bearing that out?
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Thanks for responding, I better understand your questions regarding the statistical percentages. I guess my confusion with those questions, is what is the practical difference between increased support for Republicans or decreased Democratic voter participation? The election outcome is the same and the voting percentage data is the same either way.

To put it more succinctly, its a common maxim from browbeating Dems that “not voting for Dems is the same as voting for Republicans” - wouldn’t this be an example of statistics bearing that out?
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To me the practical difference is in strategizing for the next election. If Dems want to win they need to put up charismatic, exciting candidates to turn out the vote in droves; the policy agenda and talking points during the campaign don't seem to matter in most races.

I am not sure I understand your second question. I don't think the statistics presented are evidence of anything useful without more information.
 
birdman said:
…strategizing for the next election. If Dems want to win they need to put up charismatic, exciting candidates to turn out the vote in droves; the policy agenda and talking points during the campaign don't seem to matter in most races.
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Honestly not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I don’t believe this obvious Democratic campaigning/advertising problem is going to be solved with messaging or different candidates. We are looking at the Republican Party and wanting to replicate their unified devotion and energy, but the Republicans are a *homogenous* party driven directly by white evangelical cultural grievances and economic deregulation. The Democratic Party can’t replicate the Republican strategy because we are much too diverse, in every way. Yes of course the Democrats have vague general principals which we all mostly agree on, but our platform having to serve everyone and offend no-one actually results in us not having any message.

The party hardliners complain that Democrats have to “fall in love” while Republicans just “fall in line”, but what that fails to consider is that maybe Republicans actually are *in love* with their party, or at least that those voters are aware that Republican politics are far more capable of achieving conservative cultural goals than Democratic politics are capable of achieving…anything?
 
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myDeaconmyhand said:
Honestly not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I don’t believe this obvious Democratic campaigning/advertising problem is going to be solved with messaging or different candidates. We are looking at the Republican Party and wanting to replicate their devotion and evergy, but the Republicans are a *homogenous* party driven directly by white evangelical cultural grievances and economic deregulation. The Democratic Party can’t replicate the Republican strategy because we are much too diverse, in every way. Yes of course the Democrats have vague general principals which we all mostly agree on, but our platform having to serve everyone and offend no-one actually results in us not having any message. The party hardliners complain that Democrats have to “fall in love” while Republicans “fall in line”, but fail to consider that maybe Republicans actually are in love with their party, or at least that Republican politics are far more capable of achieving conservative cultural goals than Democratic politics are capable of achieving…anything?
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This is a great post.

The Republican Party is run by power hungry wealthy people. On the surface, it doesn't seem like those people would attract the much less affluent base, but those power hungry people are aspirational and easily activated by white identity grievance politics.

The Democratic Party is run by feckless people who are afraid to take on evil people for fear of angering clueless people. The Dem base just want to live our lives in peace and vote every few months or years for decent people who pass legislation that advances basic human rights. Most aren't dead set on any particulars. They just want progress. Instead, every election is holding the line against the latest fascist nonsense and when Dems do get into power, they struggle to get everyone on board.

Democrats are trying to fight religious zeal and racial fears with politics. It doesn’t work.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
hard not to feel pretty fucking cynical today
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Gas is $3.30 a gallon.
Crime is way up.
Inflation is wiping out any of these handouts.
Afghanistan was a complete debacle and everyone who is not lying saw it in real-time.
The Dem candidate said the quiet part out loud about the roles of families in public education.
All of these things were real and remained real through election day. Voters aren't dumb and they don't believe the lies you all trade back and forth here.
 
IMO, the McAuliffe campaign didn't even do a good job of obsessing about Trump. What they mostly missed was that, as far as any Republic/centrist person who might be put off by Trump was concerned, they did their job by rejecting Amanda Chase (self described "Trump in heels") in the primary. The thing is, Chase did campaign for Youngkin and was her usual crazy self. If McAuliffe had made her the focal point of the Trump-Youngkin connection, he may have forced Youngkin to either dismiss her support or publically accept it. Instead, she got to do her thing with the audience she wanted without any scrutiny that she didn't want.
 
ConnorEl said:
The entire success of Republicans depends on voters being dumb.
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Yep, and this is both the reason Virginia voted the way it did yesterday, and the response that 80% of Republicans who voted would give (and Anus and JH if they were or are in VA):

 
Do you all think it’s helps the Democratic Party to discourage voters from attributing their circumstances to politics? Just looking at partisan trends around the country, and Republicans are doing a damn good job convincing “dumb” voters that *negative* circumstances are the fault of Democrats. The Democratic strategy to simply counter that attack by appealing to voters logic doesn’t appear to be working.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Do you all think it’s helps the Democratic Party to discourage voters from attributing their circumstances to politics? Just looking at partisan trends around the country, and Republicans are doing a damn good job convincing “dumb” voters that *negative* circumstances are the fault of Republicans. Our strategy to counter that with logic doesn’t appear to be working.
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big if true
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Do you all think it’s helps the Democratic Party to discourage voters from attributing their circumstances to politics? Just looking at partisan trends around the country, and Republicans are doing a damn good job convincing “dumb” voters that *negative* circumstances are the fault of Republicans. Our strategy to counter that with logic doesn’t appear to be working.
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I think you mean "aren't the fault of Republicans". I don't think republican voters see their "circumstances" as major issues. They vote based on whatever drummed up issues their party creates (or repackages) for them -- CRT, cancel culture, transgender issues -- which have nothing to do with their personal circumstances. Republicans would rather vote based on screwing the other guy than helping their own situations (unless they are wealthy and vote based on getting out of paying their fair share of taxes), and it's been like that for a while.
 
Shooshmoo said:
I think you mean "aren't the fault of Republicans". I don't think republican voters see their "circumstances" as major issues. They vote based on whatever drummed up issues their party creates (or repackages) for them -- CRT, cancel culture, transgender issues -- which have nothing to do with their personal circumstances. Republicans would rather vote based on screwing the other guy than helping their own situations (unless they are wealthy and vote based on getting out of paying their fair share of taxes), and it's been like that for a while.
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Right. For example, Republicans didn't think high gas prices were an issue in 2008. But they bring it up any time gas prices get over $3 under a Democrat. Their circumstances don't matter unless Republicans tell them their circumstances matter. Republicans see government as bad, so you can't just tell them government is going to fix their personal circumstances. That's like if you have a child who doesn't like broccoli and you just sprinkle some cheese on it.

In order to make real political gains, Democrats have to dismantle decades of Republican anti-government messaging and actively making government not work. One thing that would have helped is for Democrats to quickly and efficiently pass a Build Back Better plan and immediately promote it and run on it. But Democrats can't claim government can do good then be incapable of doing that good.
 
ConnorEl said:
The entire success of Republicans depends on voters being dumb.
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There was a post in here yesterday worrying about the effect of the weather on this election. As if it didn't rain on Republican voters too. No, gentlemen, you didn't shed 12% of the vote in 12 months because it rained. If you really think that, please don't ever call someone else dumb again in your life.
 
ConnorEl said:
The entire success of Republicans depends on voters being dumb.
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This is incorrect.

Shooshmoo said:
Yep, and this is both the reason Virginia voted the way it did yesterday, and the response that 80% of Republicans who voted would give (and Anus and JH if they were or are in VA):

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The entire success of Republicans depends on Democrats being and staying this dumb. It continues to serve them well.

Here's the NBC Poll discussed on MTP this past weekend: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...ating-sinks-42-percent-nbc-news-poll-n1282781

The key part? Right here:

71 percent say nation is on wrong track
Also in the NBC News poll, 71 percent of Americans say they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, up 8 points since August.

That includes 93 percent of Republicans, 70 of independents and even 48 percent of Democrats.
 
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