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2022 races (and 2021 for weird commonwealths like Virginia)

it would be nice if the polling were wrong in dems favor for once, but i'm not optimistic
 
Heard on NPR yesterday that early voting in FL heavily favored GOP so far. 130K more registered pubs voted than Dems. There was talk of DeSantis flipping Miami Dade to the GOP for the first time since the 90s. Ugh…
 
Florida is turning red. More Republicans are registered than Democrats in the first election in awhile. There’s little Dem infrastructure at every level as far as I can see.

There’s been a concerted effort to portray Florida as a uniquely free state. That along with being a haven for retirees has kept in-migration of conservatives strong.

The Dems need a really strong candidate like Obama was to boost turnout but that’s not happening. Not yet at least.

birdman, I’m guessing this is what you read.

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www.cnn.com

MCDONALD: We really can't answer that question with the data that we have available, because we don't know how people are voting.

On balance, the early vote in a typical election is usually won by Democrats, or at least registered Democrats. This election cycle it is the Republicans who are winning the early vote.

So far, as of (November 2), registered Republicans have an almost 180,000-vote advantage in both the mail ballots and the in-person early vote, and most of that advantage is actually coming from the in-person.

But still, all these Democrats have mail ballots. And here's the curious thing: They're not returning them. Not to the same degree or rate that the Republicans are.

So if you look at the return rate, as of (November 2), 48% of Democrats have returned their mail ballots compared with 55% of Republicans. So those are people who have a mail ballot in their hand, and you're seeing a big disparity there in these return rates.

Part of what's happening in Florida is a self-fulfilling prophecy that people who don't believe that the Democrats can win are not voting. And because they're not voting, the Democrats can't win.
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birdman said:
Heard on NPR yesterday that early voting in FL heavily favored GOP so far. 130K more registered pubs voted than Dems. There was talk of DeSantis flipping Miami Dade to the GOP for the first time since the 90s. Ugh…
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Hoping for Dems to win statewide races in Florida is fool's gold at this point. Demings is a great candidate and would be a great Senator, but she's being wasted down there. As Ph said, the FL Democratic Party is a joke and the FL GOP has built a vastly superior statewide organization from top to bottom. Add in that many South Florida Latinos are turning Republican and the state is pretty much a lost cause, at least for a good while. When this election is over FL Democrats likely won't hold a single elected statewide office and will be irrelevant in state politics.
 
Highland Deac said:
Hoping for Dems to win statewide races in Florida is fool's gold at this point. Demings is a great candidate and would be a great Senator, but she's being wasted down there. As Ph said, the FL Democratic Party is a joke and the FL GOP has built a vastly superior statewide organization from top to bottom. Add in that many South Florida Latinos are turning Republican and the state is pretty much a lost cause, at least for a good while. When this election is over FL Democrats likely won't hold a single elected statewide office and will be irrelevant in state politics.
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Uplifting! Thanks!
 
Crist is the canary in the coal mine for Florida Dems. He was a mediocre Republican Governor. He should not have been the de facto Dem candidate for Senate in 2010 as an independent. He should not be the Dem candidate now.

Democrats don’t have a starting lineup in FL much less a bench. They’re losing ground in Miami-Dade because they’re not growing candidates in Miami-Dade and not running candidates from Miami-Dade.
 
Not that I've been in Fl forever, but NPR usually makes the point that the vote totals in Dade usually are closer than the results. Lots of Cubans vote R.
Broward, I've seen called the Peoples Republic of Broward. if that starts going purple, things are bad for dems.
 
BiffTannen said:
You realize Kemp or Perdue, either one, would probably defeat Abrams in the fall, right ? They both lead her in the polls, despite Perdue trailing Kemp by a large margin with Republicans.

Of course when she loses again she'll be trotted out as the face of the Democratic Party.
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Correct so far.
 
So brave for predicting a Republican will win in GA.

Most likely Abrams goes the way of Jaime Harrison, out of the spotlight but very effective running things nationwide.
 
Harrison seems like he's doing a fine job as party chair.
 
PhDeac said:
So brave for predicting a Republican will win in GA.

Most likely Abrams goes the way of Jaime Harrison, out of the spotlight but very effective running things nationwide.
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Kind of wish she held off for four years, in retrospect, rather than going up against an incumbent. Although there was reason to think Kemp would not be a popular incumbent.
 
Kemp is the "See that's the kind of republican I like" candidate. Compared to trump, his wannabes, and the mtg's of the world he checks all the boxes... "nicely" for the remaining republicans that are self reflective enough to be embarrassed what their party has become. They still love those policies they just don't want people in their lives thinking (knowing?) they are deplorables still.
 
deaconson said:
Kemp is the "See that's the kind of republican I like" candidate. Compared to trump, his wannabes, and the mtg's of the world he checks all the boxes... "nicely" for the remaining republicans that are self reflective enough to be embarrassed what their party has become. They still love those policies they just don't want people in their lives thinking (knowing?) they are deplorables still.
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Kemp still gives the pubs all they want and more on god/abortion, guns, and tax cuts without being an insurrectionist or committing outright election fraud (but still engaging in as much legal voter suppression as possible). It kills me that not committing treason is enough to make him a "reasonable" republican.
 
It's good Phil Knight wasted a lot of money, but it's not good Phil Knight can waste a lot of money like it's nothing.
 
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