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2023-2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Thread

EssexThayer said:
So interestingly, there was a Twitter conversation with Torvik recently on Wake, and the reason the Deacs are lower than others, per him, is allowing some Q4 teams to stay in the game near/after halftime. Just how it factors into his metric.
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Forbes needs to find the tape of the Chill game vs u*NC where he came out of the halftime locker room on fire and turned a close game into a blowout.
 
Thank god that shot by Cleveland at the end of regulation of the Miami game rimmed out. Given the near total board meltdown over the last couple days, can only imagine how bad it would be if we had also lost to Miami.
 
EssexThayer said:
So interestingly, there was a Twitter conversation with Torvik recently on Wake, and the reason the Deacs are lower than others, per him, is allowing some Q4 teams to stay in the game near/after halftime. Just how it factors into his metric.
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I mean, Wake certainly did do that multiple times. Elon, Towson, and Charleston Southern were all much closer games than the final score would indicate. Not sure about the predictive capability of distinguishing these two games though:

Game A) 20 point win, 10 point lead at halftime.
Game B) 20 point win, tied at halftime

I’m assuming that Torvik has some data that Game A is more indicative of a top team than Game B
 
FSU and ND are totally screwing tier 2 of the conference. They totally sucked on OOC games in Nov-Dec and are now starting to play much better. This is becoming the winter of our discontent.

Meanwhile, UVA, who has sucked for 3 weeks, put another nail in VT's NCAA coffin. Bennett is now starting Minor the last 2 games at C and is going total rock fight mode. And I get it because Minor can actually play D whereas Groves is so soft. But this is so reminiscent of his 1st year or 2 where he hadn't accumulated much talent and the games were in the 40s. And Ryan Dunn took all of 4 shots all night, and 2 were a follow and an alley oop. I don't get why Tony can't get him to be more assertive. And Tony is now playing Harris over Gertrude. VT Gs were driving around him all night, and now the rumor is Gertrude will be transferring. UVA could be much worse next year.
 
We are in the midst of the most offensively efficient basketball season ever... (or since analytics became a thing):

 
UncleTupeloDeac said:
Thank god that shot by Cleveland at the end of regulation of the Miami game rimmed out. Given the near total board meltdown over the last couple days, can only imagine how bad it would be if we had also lost to Miami.
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Presumably in this losing hypothetical you would be more concerned with our teams record than with the reactions on the board?

There is no reward for being calm or blasé about your team losing. People are here because they care about the team and are invested in the game results.
 
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DeacsATS said:
I'm more of a believer in FSU than NCSU.

So yeah, that rematch with the Pack at the Joel is huge.
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Florida State is definitely a decent team. Only issue is people won’t give them credit for it.
 
deacon14 said:
I mean, Wake certainly did do that multiple times. Elon, Towson, and Charleston Southern were all much closer games than the final score would indicate. Not sure about the predictive capability of distinguishing these two games though:

Game A) 20 point win, 10 point lead at halftime.
Game B) 20 point win, tied at halftime

I’m assuming that Torvik has some data that Game A is more indicative of a top team than Game B
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He uses a Game Control score, which basically just "controls" for the fact that, just because you won by 10, doesn't mean you dominated the whole game, or vice versa. We moved up in Torvik after our loss to State because the our Game Control score was +5 (basically we were up 5 throughout the course of the game even though we lost by 7).

I think there is something there as far as "consistency". Getting down by 20 to Elon and winning by 20 certainly doesn't instill the same faith in me if we were up 40 and ultimately won by 20. Not sure how he differentiates though there.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
We could also easily be 6-0

Four of our six ACC games have been close enough to be toss ups
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Unrealistic to think that a team will win more than half of toss up games. You are an idiot if you flip a coin four times and think it "easily" should come up heads four times (6.25% chance). That would be an anomaly. 4-2 is where WF should be right now.
 
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FSU has already moved from being ranked at 116 in Torvik after their Lipscomb loss to being ranked at 80 after last night's win at Miami. Lipscomb and USF games are dragging them down a tremendous amount, but they are getting to a respectable point in the metrics already given their win streak.

If they keep winning, Wake's loss at FSU will assuredly end up as a Q1 loss, which is fine. But that means that three (potential) Q1 road wins have already slipped through Wake's fingers (UGA, FSU, NCSU), and the one that we thought we had (BC) looks like it may be Q2.
 
Watched some of Houston taking apart TT last night. Sampson has been killing it the last few years, and they play fantastic D. Seems there are 4 teams that are separating themselves at this point - Houston, Kansas, UConn and Purdue.
 
Pilchard said:
Unrealistic to think that a team will win more than half of toss up games. You are an idiot if you flip a coin four times and think it "easily" should come up heads four times (6.25% chance). That would be an anomaly. 4-2 is where WF should be right now.
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Yeah, I said this before that 6 game stretch... That it was a less than 5% chance of running the table, and if we somehow thought it was 2/3 that we'd win each of those games, it'd be like 8% (and an expected value of just under 4 wins).

The 4-2 outcome was positive. 5-1 would have been phenomenal. 6-0 was highly unlikely.

If you look at the next 6 games (which is a reasonable way to break it up, because it is now until Duke)... 3.74 "expected" wins (according to KP). So call it a 4-2 baseline, which seems reasonable. I think we could even go 5-1, which would be great. KP says 3% chance of winning all 6, but that's largely due to 18% chance of winning @ UNC.

I'd be happy with 4-2, given 3 of these are on the road... But somehow going 5-1 over this stretch would be HUGE (no matter which 1 is the L).
 
DeacsATS said:
Yeah, I said this before that 6 game stretch... That it was a less than 5% chance of running the table, and if we somehow thought it was 2/3 that we'd win each of those games, it'd be like 8% (and an expected value of just under 4 wins).

The 4-2 outcome was positive. 5-1 would have been phenomenal. 6-0 was highly unlikely.

If you look at the next 6 games (which is a reasonable way to break it up, because it is now until Duke)... 3.74 "expected" wins (according to KP). So call it a 4-2 baseline, which seems reasonable. I think we could even go 5-1, which would be great. KP says 3% chance of winning all 6, but that's largely due to 18% chance of winning @ UNC.

I'd be happy with 4-2, given 3 of these are on the road... But somehow going 5-1 over this stretch would be HUGE (no matter which 1 is the L).
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A win at UNC would probably be worth dropping two of those road games. We've been missing a giant road win on our resume and I actually think we could absorb a disappointing loss on the road with a big win on the ledger.
 
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