• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

We gave UVA too many offensive rebounds. We also should have fouled them earlier toward the end of the game. I don't think I've ever seen a team go 0-9 from the stripe. We could have extended the game and given them empty possessions from the FT line. It's like Jim Valvano never existed sometimes.
 
I’ve seen some argue “it’s not just about Q1, it’s about Q1+Q2”. Uhhh look at everyone around us. Just about all of them have more Q1+Q2 wins and certainly more Q1 wins.
 
I said after the NCSU game in Raleigh that this team is destined to have its bubble burst by a terrible showing in its first game in the ACC tourney. Starting to think that even that was overly optimistic.
 
Up to 26 on Kenpom. Our luck rating is 352/362. That is insane. The best explanation I can give of what luck is is the opposite of clutch. Basically we lose a ton of games we should have won and waste all our efficiency on blowouts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The reason I still have hope are:

(1) If we win the next two home games - I think we’re firmly in the field. There’s a good likelihood we end with at least 2 quad 1s which should be enough (between Duke, Florida, maybe VT and big maybe BC could get there with a strong finish). Hopefully we can hold it together from there.

(2) Forbes kinda blasted Efton publically after the Duke performance. It seemed to work. He definitely blasted Cam after UVa. Hopefully changes will be coming there somehow also. I can only hope this is part of us working out all the kinks and now Forbes gets us and himself over the hump.


All the being said, the Duke game is an actual must win. The Pitt game is objectively not, but would definitely add a lot of pressure if we lost.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
If yesterday wasn’t the final straw to reign in Cam then idk what will. I understand that we need him on defense for spurts but there’s just no way he should be taking more than 5 shots per game. I think Parker plays just as hard and defends pretty well and doesn’t turn it over. I mentioned early on yesterday that Efton had a mismatch yesterday and we just completely went away from him down the stretch. Can’t happen on Tuesday bc it will be another good matchup for him.
 
lazydeac said:
The reason I still have hope are:

(1) If we win the next two home games - I think we’re firmly in the field. There’s a good likelihood we end with at least 2 quad 1s which should be enough (between Duke, Florida, maybe VT and big maybe BC could get there with a strong finish). Hopefully we can hold it together from there.

(2) Forbes kinda blasted Efton publically after the Duke performance. It seemed to work. He definitely blasted Cam after UVa. Hopefully changes will be coming there somehow also. I can only hope this is part of us working out all the kinks and now Forbes gets us and himself over the hump.


All the being said, the Duke game is an actual must win. The Pitt game is objectively not, but would definitely add a lot of pressure if we lost.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah I think so too. I'm leaning towards us playing in Dayton rather than being a lock though unfortunately - but will gladly take it. Seems like a fair compromise with our road woes as long as we can continue winning at home and beat Notre Dame
 
lazydeac said:
The reason I still have hope are:

(1) If we win the next two home games - I think we’re firmly in the field. There’s a good likelihood we end with at least 2 quad 1s which should be enough (between Duke, Florida, maybe VT and big maybe BC could get there with a strong finish). Hopefully we can hold it together from there.

(2) Forbes kinda blasted Efton publically after the Duke performance. It seemed to work. He definitely blasted Cam after UVa. Hopefully changes will be coming there somehow also. I can only hope this is part of us working out all the kinks and now Forbes gets us and himself over the hump.


All the being said, the Duke game is an actual must win. The Pitt game is objectively not, but would definitely add a lot of pressure if we lost.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
For all the complaints about the schedule, we get Pitt at home Tuesday on the short half of the week, then dook has to play @Miami on Wednesday, so we get them on a short half, as well. Win those two (we will), take care of business @ND (trap game, but hopefully the talent differential will carry us), and then take one of @VPI and Clemson, along with the GT game in between them, and we'll be in. Yesterday sucked both because it limited our upside and reduced our margin of error to practically nothing, but the path is still there.
 
Kind of amusing that we are still ranked higher in the net than UVA. UVA has had some pretty bad road losses.
 
I mean, we beat them by 20 at our place they beat us by 2 at theirs. They only play Duke and Carolina once each at the end of the season. We beat Florida by more than they did even with the home/neutral skew. Florida's a quad 1 now so they only have one extra quad 1 win, which was Clemson by a point. It's a good win but we are pretty clearly a better team than Virginia at this moment.
 
DCDeac said:
I mean, we beat them by 20 at our place they beat us by 2 at theirs. They only play Duke and Carolina once each at the end of the season. We beat Florida by more than they did even with the home/neutral skew. Florida's a quad 1 now so they only have one extra quad 1 win, which was Clemson by a point. It's a good win but we are pretty clearly a better team than Virginia at this moment.
Click to expand...

100%. We beat Florida by 11 at the Joel. UVA beat Florida by 3 at a neutral site (Charlotte). Every metrics system in the world says WF's win is better, except for the Quad system, if Florida dips back down to #31 in the NET.
 
No team ranked higher than No. 38 in the NET has missed the cut in the past three years. At the same time, no team lower than No. 77 has earned an at-large bid over that span.
Click to expand...
At-large candidates in the range from Nos. 38 to 55 have made it into the field about half the time. On the other hand, at-large hopefuls from Nos. 56 to 77 have received good news in just 12% of the cases.
Click to expand...
NET notes

I don't want to see Wake end up as a test case. I also do not want to end up in Dayton (though that beats the NIT). I would love it if just once, we finish the year on an honest-to-God winning streak. Beat Pitt, beat Duke and the sun is shining a little brighter.

I also want to point out that Forbes catches some flak for his ability to coach defense, but we're sitting in the top 30 of the country in defensive efficiency in KenPom. There has been significant improvement on that front as the season has gone along.
 
UVa has scored under 54 points three times this season. They lost to Wisconsin 41-66. The other two games were scoring 47 at Wake and 49 at home vs. Wake. Defense isn't the problem.
 
I think Virginia is basically getting the treatment we got 2 years ago. A week or two left and everyone kept saying we were in. Bilas was like "Wake Forest is a lock already" and a couple other high profile guys had us in at this point regardless of our finish. But watching our metrics you knew there was trouble brewing.

That's the same take most have on UVA right now, but they only have one easy win left on their schedule. @VT is a tough rivalry game, UNC/Duke are likely losses because of the home/away setup. BC is a tough road game also. Plus we won at BC, we play soon at VT, and we end with Clemson. So our metrics are highly tied to theirs, and without a Duke/UNC win they can't really falter anywhere (nor can we).

Then there's wild card Pitt. Won 7 of their last 8 and playing great basketball on the road. I think they might get to 13 as well and they would also eclipse UVA at 13/14 ACC wins. That's the ultimate Wake 2 years ago scenario - Wake/Pitt get to 13 and suddenly UVA has to win the ACC tourney to get in.

Pitt on Tuesday is a huge game - was really happy to hear Forbes specifically call out how underrated they are metrics-wise in his post-game so we're not overlooking it for the Duke rematch. I think they're playing better than Duke right now and they have a legit star in Hinson who can be unguardable. If I had to bet my house on the game I'd honestly put it on Pitt Tuesday. But then I'd have us winning out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top