• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

Pilchard said:
While 4th out of 362 shows incredible home court value (sorry DR), at this point, hard to believe there are even three D1 basketball teams with greater home/road variance than WF:





Amazing that WF and Cuse are both 2-6 on the ACC road, and WF point differential in road games is -13 and Cuse's is -102... That's where the luck ranking comes into play.
Click to expand...


While we have been much, much better at home, the unbalanced schedule does skew the results a bit here.

We haven't played (and won't play) 1st place UNC at home. They were our largest road loss by far.
We haven't played 2nd place Duke at home. The 8 point loss is our second largest road loss.

So, in theory, that margin should go down a bit after Saturday. That being said, I hope we beat Duke by 40.
 
tiltdeac said:
Not completely far fetched that we could end up in a scenarios where beating Clemson by too much in the last game of the season could be actively bad, depending on how much value they put in quads versus being, say, one spot higher in the NET ratings.

They are something like 29 in NET coming in and we are blowing them out, and start scoring on ourselves at the end to try to keep the quad 1 win.
Click to expand...
Quad determination should be done excluding H2H results to remove this circular reference error. Not ignoring any data, just this circular reference.

So, if we pound Clemson, for WF, Clemson’s NET excluding the game against WF should determine whether Clemson is a Q1 win. Potentially Clemson could be a Q1 win for WF but a Q2 win for others.
 
Pilchard said:
While this is clearly getting ahead of myself, pretty crazy that if WF is the #4 seed, securing the double bye, the rested Deacs could play one of Cuse, FSU, NC State or Pitt (or even a #12 or #13 seed if one of those mediocre teams gets upset) to go to an ACC Tournament Semifinal (probably against #1 seed UNC). While that doesn't seem like much, it's been so f-ing long since WF has reached an ACCT semifinal that would be meaningful.... at least to me.
Click to expand...

If we only lose 1 more game (and it’s not to Duke) and UNC and Duke beat Virginia, we would be the 3 seed. Avoiding Carolina (and Clemson) until the finals would be nice
 
thatguy2016 said:
a loss to Notre Dame will be very damaging to the metrics. KP has us winning by 9, so it's at least a 10-point swing.

a 5-point loss at ND would basically undo roughly half of the gain we realized from destroying Pitt
Click to expand...
Let's go with the subjunctive instead: would be.

The former feels too predictive.

Vibes. Let's keep 'em positive. 🙂
 
Pilchard said:
Amazing that WF and Cuse are both 2-6 on the ACC road, and WF point differential in road games is -13 and Cuse's is -102... That's where the luck ranking comes into play.
Click to expand...

That 29 point victory @ Georgia Tech is doing a lot of the work there.

But yeah, we haven't been blown out at all this season, aside from the 2nd half @ UNC.
 
tiltdeac said:
Not completely far fetched that we could end up in a scenarios where beating Clemson by too much in the last game of the season could be actively bad, depending on how much value they put in quads versus being, say, one spot higher in the NET ratings.

They are something like 29 in NET coming in and we are blowing them out, and start scoring on ourselves at the end to try to keep the quad 1 win.
Click to expand...

Nah. Clemson would still play ACC Tourney games before Selection Sunday that impact their NET. You win that game as convincingly as you can.

In my mind, the Duke game is the most important in the regular season.
Then I'd say Notre Dame because we need road wins, followed by GT because that'd be embarrassing. Call those two "can't lose" instead of "must win".
If we take care of those 3, then my preference would be to win @ VT (another road win and a Q1).
If all of that happens, the Clemson game probably doesn't mean as much because we'd already be at 13 wins with a double bye (with 2 additional Q1 wins).

Lose to Duke and we absolutely need to run the table in the regular season, IMO.
 
Ha, I don’t THINK there is more than a couple Cam HATERS. I love the guy, and I love his grit, but he’s clearly struggling offensively with the wrist injury.

I think last night was essentially the template for his game the rest of the season: lock down defense, assist and rebound like normal, if he can get to the rim go for it, and only threes if there is 1 second left on the shot clock.
 
saus21 said:
duke's biggest douchbag starters and coach in no particular order:
All time hall of famer douchbag coach : No surprise here, Coach K
Starting five douchbags: Center Greg Newton, guards Grayson Allen and Collins, Center/forward Laetner, Kyree Irving (when playing 3 guard offense)
Click to expand...
can grayson allen just hold all 5 starting spots.....?

ok, perhaps Jay Williams and Danny Ferry can take two of the spots, but Grayson holds at least three!
 
most likely we'll go 3-2 to end the season

question - do we prefer a win vs duke or a win @ VT?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top