2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

[CreamyGoodness]

Let's say we go 3-2 in our last 5 games but those 3 wins are Duke, @VT and Clemson. I know it would give us a couple bad losses but we keep seeing teams projected in the field with many bad losses.

Wouldn't that be enough to get us in?

 

[PhDeac]

Yeah, should need some sort of credentials to get a shirt.

Like a sense of impending doom?

 

[Haros]

Let's say we go 3-2 in our last 5 games but those 3 wins are Duke, @VT and Clemson. I know it would give us a couple bad losses but we keep seeing teams projected in the field with many bad losses.

Wouldn't that be enough to get us in?

Probably. Somewhat missed is that Notre Dame is on a bit of a run where they’re really close to getting into Q2 territory if you play at ND. If they beat us, that would probably push them over.

Not that we want to experiment in such things…

 

[PhDeac]

ND jumped 10 points by winning by 22 at Louisville. Looks like there's a chance the ND-Cuse winner could become a Q2 win but ND probably wouldn't stay at #135 with their last four games (WFU, Clemson, @UNC, @VT). So root for Cuse. They could realistically get over #75 with a big win vs. ND, home win over VT, winning big at Louisville, and keeping it reasonable at Clemson.

 

[truifh0]

The "unlucky" part was playing the neutral games without Reid.

Agreed. Don't they take this into consideration with seeding if a player is injured or ineligible? We definitely beat lsu and uga and probably Utah with him and that probably puts us at a 6 or 7 seed or better and safely in.

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[Frosty]

Agreed. Don't they take this into consideration with seeding if a player is injured or ineligible? We definitely beat lsu and uga and probably Utah with him and that probably puts us at a 6 or 7 seed or better and safely in.

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"But you see, if Efton Reid never transfered from Gonzaga they likely would have won at least four more games. And this is why I have the Zags in Dayton and Wake Forest in my first four out." -Joe Lunardi, probably

 

[PhDeac]

Agreed. Don't they take this into consideration with seeding if a player is injured or ineligible? We definitely beat lsu and uga and probably Utah with him and that probably puts us at a 6 or 7 seed or better and safely in.

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Or just judge the team based on the lineup with Reid.

 

[BlackjackMc]

New Mexico's Q1 wins are

Home over NET #18 SDSU by 18
Home over NET #25 Colorado St by 2
Home over NET #30 Utah State by 13
Road over NET #42 Nevada by 1

If you compare those wins to Wake's arguably four biggest wins:

Home over NET #29 Florida by 11
Home over NET #48 UVA by 19
Home over NET #52 VPI by 23 (side note - VPI has a neutral site Q1 win over the MWC's Boise State)
Home over NET #56 Pitt by 33

including margin of victory, according to KP, WF's four largest wins are better than New Mexico's, and it is not particularly close. But, Quads only consider the Quad, and not margin

KP says beating VPI at home by 23 is better than beating SDSU at home by 18
KP says beating Florida at home by 11, UVA at home by 19, and Pitt at home by 33 are all better than any of New Mexico's other Q1 wins

If you actually take a look at the schedule of all of the MWC teams, SDSU is the only school that has an NCAA tournament resume. The SOS of MWC teams is lousy, despite getting a boost from playing each other.

 

[thatguy2016]

If you actually take a look at the schedule of all of the MWC teams, SDSU is the only school that has an NCAA tournament resume. The SOS of MWC teams is lousy, despite getting a boost from playing each other.

Agreed. I’m not drinking the MWC Kool-Aid

 

[TooManyWeapons]

Hopefully the 5,000 Duke fans don't steal half the tie-dyes.

Not sure the depth of truth here, but when I called my account contact at the ticket office he said they were holding some seats specifically so they would go to Wake fans. I'm hoping I won't be able to hear myself think when Reid posters Filipowksi.

 

[Bubble Boy]

So let me see if I have this right. UVa has a better "resume" than Wake despite having a net ranking 21 spots below Wake, because they have more quad 1 wins (3 to 1). And for UVa, one of those vaunted quad 1 wins is for their 2 point victory over Wake. But then Wake does NOT get a quad 1 win for their 19 point win over UVa. So Virginia is considered better than Wake because beating Wake (by 2) is more highly regarded than beating UVa (by 19)?

 

[PhDeac]

Yes. That's how the system works.

 

[DCDeac]

How great would a Mountain West vs. ACC "potential tourney team" matchup be right now. Pick a neutral location, 1 weekend.

UNC vs. San Diego State
Duke vs. New Mexico
Clemson vs. Colorado State
Wake vs. Utah State
Virginia vs. Nevada
Va Tech vs. Boise St.

I'd take 5-1 ACC. 4-2 probably the average (Vegas) outcome? But the Mountain West is slated for 6 NCAA bids and the ACC for HALF OF THAT. Side note, New Mexico has one road win for Quad 1 and 2 combined. Quad 1+2 away they are 1-5. They have a quad 3 loss, we don't. But they're in (10 seed, not even first 4) and Wake is not in the field....

If they're seriously going to continue with what this has become - ranking the conferences across a handful of games in November to dictate total conference bids - just change the schedules. Makes absolutely no sense to "warm up" the season non-con. Split the conference season into three 7 game sections (add a bye for the 20 games). Kick it off with a couple easy games and an early tourney. Play the first 3rd conference, then 3 non-con, 2nd third, 3 more non-con, then finish the conference season. Only schedule teams after November from conferences that had equal or more bids than the ACC the previous season. Doesn't matter where they rank in the conference, just run up the score if they're awful.

The real issue is that the bullshit conference hierarchy leeches poison into the already idiotic quad system. Since New Mexico is overrated, Boise St. gets an extra Quad 1 win. Hell, even if they hadn't won, they got an opportunity. They have 10 Quad 1 opportunities, only half are road games. We get half of that since the ACC "sucks", with ONE home game till now. Which statistically is largely because GaTech and BC lost to Mountain West teams back in November. So Boise St. is easily in as a 9 seed thanks to road wins (since that is our achilles heel) quad 1+2 combined of... only Nevada and New Mexico? Remind me of how Boise State did against the ACC in November? Oh right, blown out by Clemson, beaten by VaTech.

If you were trying to leverage the variance of college basketball to randomize the NCAA field outside of the top 25 teams, this is what is looks like.

 

[thatguy2016]

So let me see if I have this right. UVa has a better "resume" than Wake despite having a net ranking 21 spots below Wake, because they have more quad 1 wins (3 to 1). And for UVa, one of those vaunted quad 1 wins is for their 2 point victory over Wake. But then Wake does NOT get a quad 1 win for their 19 point win over UVa. So Virginia is considered better than Wake because beating Wake (by 2) is more highly regarded than beating UVa (by 19)?

You nailed it.

Also, if Florida were to slip two spots in the NET, WF would lose its Quad 1 win, an 11-point home win over Florida. UVA would keep its 3-point neutral site (Charlotte) Quad 1 win over Florida. KP says a home win by 11 is better than a neutral 3-point win, but Quads don’t care about margin.

ETA: Florida dropped to 30 last night in NET. Our one Q1 win is hanging by a thread.

Obviously a win over Duke fixes many ills.

 

[macktheknife]

Forbes scolded Lunardi for "not staying in his lane re: his comments pertaining to ACC bball recruiting" & that he's never seen Lunardi out on the recruiting trail.

Packer pointed out that Lunardi still has Wake out of the NCAAT, while all other Power 6 #3 conference teams are safely in??!

These are words that should be coming from the ACC commissioner fighting for his conference. What a pussy as he watches his conference die.

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[WindyCityDeac]

Agreed. Don't they take this into consideration with seeding if a player is injured or ineligible? We definitely beat lsu and uga and probably Utah with him and that probably puts us at a 6 or 7 seed or better and safely in.

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The idea that we “definitely” would’ve beaten LSU and UGA with efton is laughable. Nothing about this team involves a “definite” win.

 

[awakegirl]

These are words that should be coming from the ACC commissioner fighting for his conference. What a pussy as he watches his conference die.

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I’m convinced a random fan would be doing better than this jackass.

 

[LilburnDeac]

These are words that should be coming from the ACC commissioner fighting for his conference. What a pussy as he watches his conference die.

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That's because it's not "his" conference. He has no previous connection to the ACC. At least Swofford, Corrigan, James, and Weaver all had some ACC ties before being given the job.

 

[BarcaDeac]

The guy comes from a school with no tournament tradition so doesn’t know what it means to fight for bids

 

[tigerswood]

The idea that we “definitely” would’ve beaten LSU and UGA with efton is laughable. Nothing about this team involves a “definite” win.

I mean we’re beating similarly bad/mediocre teams by 30 with him, so I think it’s warranted here.