https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/...oud-mvp-historic-rookie-season-houston-texans
Stroud is now second in the NFL in passing yards and ranks in the top 10 in almost every efficiency metric, including expected points added and QBR. That’s how Houston has stuck around in the playoff chase despite featuring a bad running game and an exciting but mediocre defense.
This is what the great quarterbacks do. They accelerate a team’s timeline. Stroud has been so good, so early, that it’s no longer a question whether he should be the offensive rookie of the year, or whether the Panthers erred in passing on him to take Bryce Young with the top pick in April. Those conversations have already moved on. Stroud’s points of comparison aren’t Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis. They’re Dan Marino, Andrew Luck, and Justin Herbert—at least among all-time NFL rookie seasons. If you didn’t know anything about the second pick from the 2023 draft, I’d forgive you for thinking “the first rookie QB since” was part of his legal name. It’s all you heard after Stroud led Houston to a second game-winning drive in as many weeks on Sunday.
Stroud is on pace to become the first rookie QB to lead the NFL in passing yards since Davey O’Brien in 1939. Only Herbert and Luck threw for more yards in their first nine starts. Since the turn of the century, only five rookie quarterbacks have averaged more EPA per dropback: Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Matt Ryan (2008), Robert Griffin III (2012), Russell Wilson (2012), and Dak Prescott (2016). Here’s a list of first-year quarterbacks who have averaged more yards per dropback over that span:
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There is no list. It’s Stroud all by himself.
We don’t even need the “rookie” caveat to talk about Stroud anymore. He ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA per play after 10 weeks. He’s slotted in right behind Tua Tagovailoa, who’s throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and backed by the league’s most efficient run game, and Jalen Hurts, who is pulling in $51 million a year to throw to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith while playing behind the best offensive line in football. The Texans have provided Stroud with a good (not great) supporting cast, and he’s keeping pace with two guys who have been in the MVP discussion the past two years. He’s been more efficient than Herbert, Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins. He is leading a passing game that ranks third in DVOA. We aren’t just watching a great rookie season; this would be a great season for any quarterback in the league, regardless of experience level.