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2023 Pit Fantasy Football League - THE PLAYOFFS ARE SET

It didn’t even get 25 total points on the board for the real game.

I’m out of the playoffs now at 5-7. But under the OblongPickle plan where the remaining team with the most points gets the 8 seed, I’d be 5 points behind 7-5 James Sokolove for the last spot because I have the 8th highest points total despite being 14th in the league. So I've become the scenario I warned against last week.

PhDeac said:
The whole point of H2H is to be consistently good from week to week. Using top score as a wild card spot doesn't match the purpose. Top score as tiebreaker for the last spot is sufficient.
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PhDeac said:
Right. We could end up with a 7-7 team getting in over multiple 9-5 teams.
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PhDeac said:
That’s the scenario you’re thinking of. That’s not necessarily the scenario that will happen. It’s just as likely or more likely that the 2 or 3 teams tied for the 8th best record will get jumped by the 11th team with the 8th highest point total.

Either way, making total points the tiebreaker alleviates reasonable fairness concerns while keeping it a weekly head to head contest.
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You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain #RIPJKarl
 
Ph, I actually like that rule. I would be open to something like that for next year!
 
WEEK 12 RECAP
Elimination Station, Some Travelers Must Depart

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Twelve weeks down, two more to go and the playoff picture is finally taking shape. A few teams have officially clinched their spots in the playoffs, a few others have joined us peasants being eliminated with games still to play, and the muddy middle has cleared up just enough to give good odds on who can still make their way into the field and who might need to wait until 2024 for another shot. This week we will look at those teams still in the race for the remaining playoff spots, but first here's how everything shook out this week:

WEEK 12 STATS​

Week 12 Scores.jpg Week 12 Stats.jpg
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PLAYOFF PICTURE
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BERTHS CLINCHED*​

@DeaconPeach (10-2, 1st in Kitchin Division)
@WakeForest Fan (9-3, 2nd in Kitchin Division)
@iodeac (9-3, 1st in Taylor Division)
@deacon14 (8-4, 1st in Davis Division) - 99%
@Sleepy (8-4, 1st in Poteat Division) - 99%​
*Teams with 99% playoff odds will be included as having clinched​
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TEAMS ELIMINATED​

@mako1331 (2-10)
Gooner (2-10)
@Ghostsurfer (3-9)
@OblongPickle (4-8)
@redwing42 (5-7)
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IN THE HUNT​

@TripleDeacon (7-5, 83% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Barca (6-6), Edarem (7-5)
Triple has by far the most straightforward path into the playoffs: win and in. Benefitting from his 2nd highest overall score on the season after a Week 12 top score, Triple will hold the points tiebreaker against the rest of the field so long as Sleepy holds on to the Poteat Division lead. It isn't the easiest road for Triple as both remaining opponents are firmly within the playoff race themselves, but even if Triple were to falter in both matchups, there are few remaining paths to eight teams getting to 8-6 and eliminating Triple outright. But the safer, much less stressful method of winning to clinch a spot (potentially even in Week 13) is surely Triple's preferred way of going about this.

@JamesSokolove (7-5, 70% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Lone Wolf (6-6), Triple (7-5)
Edarem finds himself in an extremely strong position going into Week 13, only marginally weaker than Triple due to being a couple spots lower on the points chart, but arguably the better Week 13 opponent in Lone Wolf. The story is the same for Ed as Triple, win and in, the one note being that they both cannot do that as they play each other in Week 14. That guaranteed loss for one of them is likely why neither has yet to creep into 90% playoff odds as there are still some scenarios where 7-7 isn't enough to get in, but a big projected win against currently QB-less Lone Wolf gives Ed a huge advantage going into that Week 14 matchup if he can get the job done, and it may be enough to clinch his spot outright before the game against Triple even takes place.

@Satan (7-5, 68% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Ghost (3-9), Peach (10-2)
Satan's road to the playoffs is nearly as straightforward as Triple and Edarem, the only caveat being that any slipup is much more punishing as Satan does not nearly have the points cushion he would want for tiebreakers. And while the Satan 2023 rollercoaster is back on the climb after falling below .500 in Week 9, the remaining schedule surely looked more reasonable before Ghost up a season-high score in Week 12. Add in just enough bye week trouble to keep him up at night and Satan might be in a must-win Week 14 situation against Peach, a scary prospect for any aspiring playoff team. I still think Satan has enough in the tank to get it done in Week 13 against Ghost, but this might be one to revisit next week to get a real gauge on Satan's chances.

@YoungBuck95 (7-5, 59% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: redwing (5-7), Sleepy (8-4)
Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V to Satan's section with even less points cushion for tiebreakers. While YB does control his own destiny in that two wins secures him his playoff berth due to the Week 14 Triple/Edarem matchup, getting to the 9th overall team in line means we are now in the territory where results elsewhere weigh heavily. For example with just the 3 teams above, should each of Triple, Edarem, and Satan win in Week 13, YB would be on the chopping block with a loss against redwing and need a win against top-scoring Sleepy in Week 14 just to hopefully get a tiebreaker. A win is currently projected against redwing and bye week gaps are pretty easily fillable for YB, but stranger things have happened. YB will be in wait-and-see mode all weekend as we won't have a good handle on his true odds until we see the results for the teams ahead of him in the playoff queue, definitely one to keep an eye out for in Week 14.

@BarcaDeac (6-6, 11% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Triple (7-5), Mrs. I/O (3-9)
As we get down to Barca at 6-6, we see a massive drop in playoff odds and are officially in the "must-win, needs help" portion of the playoff picture. Barca benefits from having the most straightforward Week 13 he could have: beat fellow playoff contender Triple. If Barca loses, it's pretty much curtains as 7-7 plus a middling points tiebreak will be difficult to get over the line in front of the four teams ahead of him. But should Barca win against Triple, he gets already-eliminated Mrs. I/O and his hopes and dreams would be much easier to realize. While we won't know the specific teams he needs to lose until Week 13 results come in, Barca's best hopes as of right now are to get to 8-6, hope for Edarem to beat Triple, and hope either YB loses out or make up the 8 point deficit on the scoring charts to win the tiebreak.

NEED ALL THE HELP THEY CAN GET
@Wolf1297 (6-6, 4% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Edarem (7-5), Fighting Cocks (9-3)
@Screamindemon3 (6-6, 4% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Peach (10-2), Gooner (2-10)
@DeacHawk (6-6, 2% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Mrs. I/O (3-9), Ghost (3-9)
@PhDeac (5-7, 1% playoff odds); Remaining Schedule: Pickle (4-8), mako (2-10)

I won't go into too much detail for these teams; while they are all still technically not eliminated from playoff contention, they all would have to win out and score so many points and have enough results go in their favor to vault them into the 7/8th seed spot on the points tiebreaker. And while Ph has the easiest road of any team with remaining playoff odds, he could be eliminated in Week 13 if any 3 of the top 4 playoff contenders win their matchups, and will be eliminated at any point if 3 total teams get to 8 wins. Last year brought total chaos in the last two weeks and I believe we did have a team go from single-digit playoff odds to in the field, but lightning doesn't tend to strike twice in the same spot.

Best of luck to all teams still in contention for playoff spots, we will see how this all goes down in Week 13 and hopefully still have some exciting possibilities in Week 14!

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Tough high-scoring L’s for me and Ph this week. Obviously it hurts him a lot more given our situations, but 2 of the top 5 scoring teams losing their matchup seems pretty rare
 
Btw, if any of you want to root for chaos in Week 13 to set up the most fun Week 14, here is the best potential Week 13 slate of results to get maximum fun:

Wolf beats Edarem
Barca beats Triple
SD3 beats Peach
DeacHawk beats Mrs. I/O
redwing beats YB
Ghost beats Satan
Ph beats Pickle

This would give us:
Triple 7-6
Edarem 7-6
Satan 7-6
YB 7-6
Barca 7-6
Wolf 7-6
SD3 7-6
DeacHawk 7-6
Ph 6-7

Because one of Triple/Edarem must finish 7-7 in that scenario, it opens up the chances for two of those bottom 4 teams to get in with a fortuitous 8-6 if the rest of the results fall their way (e.g., 14th overall scorer DeacHawk gets in if he beats Ghost and SD3 gets in if he beats me while Satan/YB/Barca all lose in Week 14).

Let chaos reign.
 
My bad, OP.

I'll wait for Gooner to do the official recap and playoff scenarios, but I got a good laugh that my odds went from 1% to 6%. I think I have a better chance than that if my calculations are correct.
 
I appreciate it. All of us have made some bad lineup decisions that have cost us this season.
 
PhDeac said:
My bad, OP.

I'll wait for Gooner to do the official recap and playoff scenarios, but I got a good laugh that my odds went from 1% to 6%. I think I have a better chance than that if my calculations are correct.
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I haven't done all the calculations yet, still reviewing the results and Week 14 matchups, but I believe that your odds sextupled because we got around 66% of the chaos in Week 13 that you needed. So while you still have a really tough time getting that 8th seed, if all of Ed, Satan, Wolf, and Barca end up at 7-7, you're close enough in points to maybe win the tiebreaker. It's still a lot of dominoes that would have to fall your way from what I can tell, and if just one game result goes against you, you're out. But it's less of a longshot than last week because you had enough go your way to not eliminate you just yet.
 
This is also where math vs. reality sort of goes against each other. I would also agree that the chances of the three teams losing in Week 14 that need to lose + you making up the points tiebreaker seems better than 6%, even if they all have a true 50% chance of losing, that's still only 1 in 8 that you'd get the results you need. Add in the odds of you making up the 10 points or so to take over the total points tiebreaker, that's where it gets into single-digit odds. And obviously this is the dumbest downed version of things, but that's why it "feels" like the odds are low.
 
is it true you're handing over the reins next season, gooner? or just a joke
 
Much of my hope is based on going against one of the worst teams in the leagues and the three teams I need to lose playing three of the best teams. But I didn’t realize Satan is playing Peach who may be without Trevor Lawrence.
 
For a guy that did so well in his rookie season, and for me to "hit", sorta, on a playable rookie, I certainly didn't time just about ANYTHING right.

- Week 1 he didn't see the field

- Week 2 he had 1 rush and 1 reception for 1.4 points, he was on my bench, fine.

- Week 3 (See next post) he EXPLODES with 49.3 points, on my bench, in a week which I lost to I/O Deac 91.54 - 59.46.

- Weeks 4 and 5 I start him and he actually leads me to what would end up being 2 of my only actual true performance wins of the season

- He is injured midweek between Weeks 5 and 6.

  • Week 6 - IR
  • Week 7 - IR
  • Week 8 - IR
  • Week 9 - IR

- Week 10 - [BYE]

- Week 11 - I start him, he plays for 1 drive, gets 1 rush for 1 yard and 1 reception for 4 yards for a grand total of 1.0 FPTS before he is injured on their 2nd drive and doesn't return the rest of the game.

- Week 12 - Injured, doesn't play.

- Week 13 - Is QUESTIONABLE all week, I don't check the lineup pre-game. He plays, scores 23.8 FPTS on my bench.


The ULTIMATE FML Fantasy Football Player Season there is for someone who has only played 4 full games and is still RB25 on the season.
 
OblongPickle said:
---Had I put Achane in at the flex over Tee Higgins** in Week 3 above, I would have won with 105.66 points and I/O Deac would be tied for 1st in the Taylor Division with Pitt County Pinfish which could affect the entire Playoffs.

**Higgins was IMO the worst 2nd round pick by far this season, about tied in overall points with Aaron Jones and Dameon Pierce, but a worse PPG than Jones and slightly better than Pierce. However, relative to his peers, he was the worst ranked by position. He is WR66 right now, the next worst at their positions would be Pierce and Jones at RB46 and RB45.

I plan on doing an analysis of picks by round and by team/poster once the season rounds out in a few weeks, so we can see the steals and busts of the draft and who had the worst luck cough 1st Rd - Cooper Kupp, 2nd Rd - Tee Higgins, 5th Rd - Khalil Herbert, 7th Rd - Rashod Bateman, 8th Rd - Juwan Johnson, 9th Rd - Ryan Tannehill cough....excuse me...I had a "Terrible at drafting" stuck in my throat.

I think from now on I'm going to study the ladies of the OGBoards' drafting habits, there always seems to be one or the other near the top of the standings, even when they go against convention and draft a QB at #1 overall or something (Didn't one of the ladies draft Mahomes #1 last year or the year before and he led the league in yards and TDs?) Either way, they seem to always do well.
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Can you, like, not do this? For my own mental health?
 
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