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2024 Presidential Primaries and Election

PhDeac said:
I’ve seen polling and analysis that shows Haley’s best chance at NH is taking advantage of their unique mix of high independent voters and open primaries that would allow Biden-skeptical Dems to vote for her. It wouldn’t help with the broader electorate but it’s her only chance at a win.

I don’t think even Trump has come out for a national ban. I think he’ll probably try to tamp down that talk enough though he’d certainly sign it.
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I agree that he'll try to avoid talking about abortion, but I don't think he'll be able to ignore the issue. Too much of the GOP base wants a national ban and other GOP politicians won't stop talking about it - certainly the Religious Right won't. And in 2022 Democrats finally seemed to realize that hammering Republicans on abortion rights is their key to winning elections.
 
Yeah. It will be an interesting test of how much power he actually has over his base. Republicans will definitely run on abortion at the state level.
 
Does Republican voting culture also lean on the concept of negative responsibility? Do Republican loyalists hold all non-voters as being responsible in absentia for Democratic victories? What then of a neutral or unknown non-voter, is it like Schrödinger’s Paradox where this person does not exist and is not electorally responsible for any outcome if you don’t know their partisan alignment?
 
Republican voting culture is about showing up whether or not you like the candidate because the Republican is better than the Democrat. The far right gritted their teeth for decades supporting moderates. They took advantage of an opening to move the party far right after Obama and steadily and took over the party from the inside.

If there ever was a significantly bloc of people on the right who were politically active but didn’t vote and didn’t try to gain institutional power, they’ve moved into the GOP over the last 10 or so years.

The conservative/Republican theory of change has always been about controlling government by controlling who can vote. If people who oppose conservatives willingly don’t vote, that’s just making conservatives disenfranchisement easier.

Latest NH poll has Trump 52, Haley 34, DeSantis 8. Haley would need to beat that significantly to justify staying in the race.
 
PhDeac said:
If there ever was a significantly bloc of people on the right who were politically active but didn’t vote and didn’t try to gain institutional power, they’ve moved into the GOP over the last 10 or so years.
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What does it mean to be politically active and not vote?
 
It seems rather arbitrary to have a set determination of “inaction” where a voting eligible person ceases to be held electorally responsible.
 
Wouldn’t it be more logically consistent that every voting eligible person be held equally responsible for electoral outcomes?
 
awaken said:
I don't think Trump will gain any votes since 2020. Elderly MAGA are dying, Covid deaths hit MAGA states hard, more Gen Z are eligible to vote each year, overturning Roe will convert female voters and energize the opposition, the Taylor Swift factor, J6 has to cost them at least some votes. I don't see how Trump would gain votes outside of MAGA Gen Z becoming eligible. I don't think the plan is to win the election. The plan is to run, lose, and somehow steal the election/overthrow the government. For Project 2025 to be executed, their has to be a plan for him to get the Presidency.
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No way. He thinks he can smoke Biden this time, and he's probably right.
 
Ball State Deac said:
The nice thing for Trump, is the rules do not apply to him. He can support a total ban to one group and a different standard to another and blame the media when it’s reported.
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Plus, he doesn't care one way or the other - Trump's indifferent about abortion, as he is with all Christian-related policies. If it fires up his base, he'll promote a ban. If not, he won't.
 
That was fast.

Wasserman already called it for Trump.

Guess we’re really doing this a 3rd time. Jesus Christ.
 
CNN saying it's too close to call. AP called it. The big question is the margin though.

They did call it for Biden so I guess what's his name will drop out. He couldn't beat Biden when he wasn't even on the ballot. It's 74% write-ins so far.
 
So far, it looks like Trump needed DeSantis to drop out to give him a shot at getting a double-digit win.
 
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