2024 Wake Baseball Thread: What Did We Do To Deserve This?

[deacon14]

That series win against FSU looks to be big.

Let's sweet NC State and essentially lock up that 7 or 8 seed

Considering that there's oftentimes very little difference in the resumes of the teams seeded 7-10, it's amazing how big of an advantage the 7/8 seeds get compared to the 9/10 seeds.

Of course the logistics make this impossible, but I think a home/away/home setup for the 5-8 seeds (or just all of them) would be better in an ideal world.

 

[IAppreciateIt]

In my mind, the teams in contention for a top 8 seed are:

Tenn, UK, Ark, A&M, UNC (All 5 are nearly locks. Would require getting swept to be at risk)

UGA, Wake, Clemson, FSU, Oregon State (5 teams with the best chance at the last 3 spots)

ECU, Duke, UVA, Indiana State, NC State (5 teams with ranking and/or RPI problems for getting top 8, but still possible)

Oklahoma is definitely in that second tier.

Would also add UCSB, South Carolina, probably Oklahoma State and maybe even Arizona and Miss. State into that third tier.

 

[80deacon]

They didn’t sweep Clemson

Thanks for the correction. I misread the schedule/results.
But they did win series 2-1

 

[vtwhat etc]

That series win against FSU looks to be big.

Let's sweet NC State and essentially lock up that 7 or 8 seed

If we sweep State, our ceiling is higher than the 7.

That could be 13 consecutive wins to finish the season, with nearly half of them against teams in consideration for a national seed.

Duke winning the Carolina series gives us a really good shot at the 7 or 8 seed, even if we just take 1 in Raleigh... imo.

 

[80deacon]

Got to think that beat down on national tv Sunday will only help us come out on the positive side in a close final seeding decision.

 

[Deacfreak07]

The fact that Kurtz was hurt specifically is actually really helpful. He’s such a known talent, and has played so well since returning. It makes it easier to overlook some of those stumbles. Even though his injury helped more than hurt at the time.

If we beat State 2-3 this weekend we’re likely in that 7-8 spot. If we sweep them and Hartle looks great again, then I could see us getting all sorts of benefit of the doubt.

 

[Deacfreak07]

These are dope as hell. I get it, but wish we could be in on the first wave.

 

[deacon14]

Oklahoma is definitely in that second tier.

RPI of 17 seems like a big hurdle for them to be in the second tier, but I definitely missed them in the third tier. RPI is also the reason I didn't have Oregon State in the first tier.

RPI is certainly somewhat biased against the west coast teams, but the committee absolutely still uses it.

 

[DeacWatcher]

If we sweep State, our ceiling is higher than the 7.

That could be 13 consecutive wins to finish the season, with nearly half of them against teams in consideration for a national seed.

Duke winning the Carolina series gives us a really good shot at the 7 or 8 seed, even if we just take 1 in Raleigh... imo.

If we do that and go deep in ACC tourney, maybe that's possible but just like in basketball the committee is gonna look at the full body of work.

That will include our fuckups vs Duke, UVA, UNC and unfortunately ND. Also that stinker vs Elon doesn't help.

 

[Deacfreak07]

If we do that and go deep in ACC tourney, maybe that's possible but just like in basketball the committee is gonna look at the full body of work.

That will include our fuckups vs Duke, UVA, UNC and unfortunately ND. Also that stinker vs Elon doesn't help.

Elon game has absolutely zero impact.

 

[Pilchard]

ATLANTIC
1	Clemson	17-10	0.630	-	37-13	0.740	7	11-7	5-5	3 Losses
2	Florida State	15-11	0.577	1½	37-12	0.755	8	6-7	6-4	1 Win
2	North Carolina State	15-11	0.577	1½	29-19	0.604	20	9-11	7-3	1 Win
4	Wake Forest	15-12	0.556	2	36-16	0.692	9	11-12	9-1	9 Wins
5	Louisville	13-14	0.481	4	29-22	0.569	62	7-14	5-5	4 Losses
6	Notre Dame	9-18	0.333	8	27-22	0.551	60	2-16	7-3	1 Loss
7	Boston College	8-19	0.296	9	22-27	0.449	80	8-13	2-8	1 Win
COASTAL
1	North Carolina	20-7	0.741	-	39-11	0.780	5	6-7	9-1	6 Wins
2	Virginia	15-12	0.556	5	37-14	0.725	13	6-6	7-3	1 Loss
2	Duke	15-12	0.556	5	34-16	0.680	22	12-11	5-5	1 Loss
4	Virginia Tech	14-13	0.519	6	32-17	0.653	55	3-10	6-4	1 Win
4	Georgia Tech	14-13	0.519	6	30-19	0.612	48	8-10	5-5	1 Win
6	Miami (FL)	10-17	0.370	10	23-27	0.460	83	9-15	5-5	1 Loss
7	Pittsburgh	8-19	0.296	12	23-26	0.469	88	7-17	6-4	1 Loss

 

[deacon14]

Elon game has absolutely zero impact.

Yeah, it's confusing for people because losing Q3/Q4 games has a giant impact for basketball, but losing a few midweek games to bad teams just doesn't mean that much in baseball.

Midweek games involve the use of a bunch of pitchers that would probably not even get to pitch in a regional, and the committee knows that. Therefore they just don't matter all that much in terms of seeding.

 

[Pilchard]

This week's games:

Tuesday:

ND at Butler
G'town at BC
Penn State at Pitt
JMU at VT
FSU at Stetson
UNC at UNCW
Indiana at L'ville
Miami at FIU
Charleston at Duke
Clemson at Coastal
Mercer at GT
Liberty at WF (ACCN)

Thursday-Saturday Series:

BC at Clemson
GT at FSU
ND at L'ville
UNC at Duke
VT at UVA (ACCN on Saturday)
WF at NC State (ACCN on Friday)
Pitt at Miami

ND, Pitt, Miami and BC battling for the last two spots in the ACCT

 

[IamThunderbolt]

If GT takes the series at FSU and we take ours, we'd be the #2 seed in the Atlantic. Taking the series against State and FSU dropping only 1 keeps us 1/2 game back of second.

Did a game between State/FSU get cancelled? They are the only two teams in the conference to not have played 27 - that extra game has some big seeding implications for all three teams involved.

 

[deacon14]

Incredibly lame that the cancelled game between FSU and NC State is now helping both of them in terms of ACCT seeding, as one of them should have another loss and be 15-12 with Wake, UVA, and Duke currently.

It's absolutely insane that #3 in the ACC is currently 15-11 and #9 is 14-13. Duke getting Pitt at home is the only one of those 7 bunched up teams that has an easy series this weekend.

 

[Pilchard]

Last week, Baseball America projected the following ACC Teams to be on the NCAA Tournament bubble:

• GT - since then, they took 2 of 3 against Duke
• L'ville - since then UNC swept them
• VT - since then, Miami took two out of three in Blacksburg; after a hot start, the Hokies have lost five consecutive ACC series

 

[thatguy2016]

If GT takes the series at FSU and we take ours, we'd be the #2 seed in the Atlantic. Taking the series against State and FSU dropping only 1 keeps us 1/2 game back of second.

Did a game between State/FSU get cancelled? They are the only two teams in the conference to not have played 27 - that extra game has some big seeding implications for all three teams involved.

Yes, a game between NCSU-FSU was cancelled.

There is no #2 seed in the Atlantic. We could finish second in the Atlantic and be the #5 seed if Duke and UVA end up with the same record as us (since they win the tiebreaker).

To earn a top 4 seed, WF needs to win the NCSU series, and either have a better weekend than two of UVA/Duke/FSU, or better than one and have a much better weekend than Clemson

 

[CONeill]

Incredibly lame that the cancelled game between FSU and NC State is now helping both of them in terms of ACCT seeding, as one of them should have another loss and be 15-12 with Wake, UVA, and Duke currently.

It's absolutely insane that #3 in the ACC is currently 15-11 and #9 is 14-13. Duke getting Pitt at home is the only one of those 7 bunched up teams that has an easy series this weekend.

Duke is home against UNC this weekend.

 

[uncaboref]

Incredibly lame that the cancelled game between FSU and NC State is now helping both of them in terms of ACCT seeding, as one of them should have another loss and be 15-12 with Wake, UVA, and Duke currently.

It's absolutely insane that #3 in the ACC is currently 15-11 and #9 is 14-13. Duke getting Pitt at home is the only one of those 7 bunched up teams that has an easy series this weekend.

That list above is incorrect for Pitt's opponent, they go to Miami. Duke hosts UNC this weekend.

 

[CONeill]

This week's games:

...

Thursday-Saturday Series:

BC at Clemson
GT at FSU
ND at L'ville
UNC at Duke
VT at UVA (ACCN on Saturday)
WF at NC State (ACCN on Friday)
Pitt at Duke (ACCN on Thursday)

ND, Pitt, Miami and BC battling for the last two spots in the ACCT

Rough week for Duke to have a split-squad series, since their only legitimate starting pitcher (Santucci) was a late scratch and didn't pitch last weekend and their third baseman hitting .410 was a late scratch from yesterday's game.