Aaron Judge - New HR Champ

[Frosty]

Pop looking at Cliff Lee’s 2012 10 inning scoreless L like…if he wants to win awards…needs to be picking up that W

If he really wanted to be a valuable player he could've batted better and contributed on offense like...oh wait

 

[deacon14]

In all sincerity, I find the MVP race between Judge/Ohtani really interesting. You cannot argue that Judge was a much better hitter.

Judge: 696 PA, OPS: 1.111, OPS+: 211 (100 is average), 10.6 brefWAR, K%: 25.1, BB%: 16.0
Ohtani: 666 PA, OPS: 0.875, OPS+: 145 (100 is average), 3.4 brefWAR, K%: 24.2, BB%: 10.8

But then you obviously have to factor in Ohtani as a pitcher:

166 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 172 ERA+, 1.012 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 6.1 brefWAR

Adding them together solely considering WAR, Judge had the better year (10.6 to 9.5). Fangraphs WAR thinks the difference is even more stark (11.4 to 9.5).

But I don't really think that tells the whole story. Ohtani is an elite SP and a very good DH combined into one roster spot. The flexibility that having those two roles be one person gives to a team is incredibly valuable (although the Angels did not capitalize on it at all). It gives your team the ability to carry an extra utility player or an extra bullpen arm. I have no idea if WAR considers this as part of the equation, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

I'd probably give the award to Judge tbh, he was fantastic this year even without considering the dumb HR record. But what Ohtani is kind of breaks the system, because there's not a good way to evaluate how valuable it truly is to have both of his skillsets wrapped up in one player. I wouldn't blame anyone that wants to give the award to Ohtani.

 

[buckets]

how do the angels keep getting generational talents but also suck so bad

 

[TownieDeac]

Look at those best fans in baseball go

 

[2&2 Slider To Leyritz]

imagine still pointing to batting average and rbis to debate player value in the year of our lord two thousand twenty two

It is amazing to see how may idiots who still don't understand that advanced stats are to differentiate among the losers. Do you know what still primarily wins baseball games offensively? Batting average and RBIs. If you don't have a lot of guys with high batting average and RBIs then you can try to use some other stats to prioritize among whatever else you do have, but every single coach who is trying to win is still going to take high average and RBIs first. Ted Williams will be the first offensive player selected to start a team whether it is 1941 or 2022.

 

[ChrisL68]

It is amazing to see how may idiots who still don't understand that advanced stats are to differentiate among the losers. Do you know what still primarily wins baseball games offensively? Batting average and RBIs. If you don't have a lot of guys with high batting average and RBIs then you can try to use some other stats to prioritize among whatever else you do have, but every single coach who is trying to win is still going to take high average and RBIs first. Ted Williams will be the first offensive player selected to start a team whether it is 1941 or 2022.

what made Ted Williams even a better hitter than his BA was also the fact that he drew alot of walks, didn't strike out often and hit for power. amazingly, statistics have been developed to take all of these things into account.

If you look at the teams that led the MLB in runs this year, it correlated with their OBP slugging % stats, not batting average.

 

[Frosty]

It is amazing to see how may idiots who still don't understand that advanced stats are to differentiate among the losers. Do you know what still primarily wins baseball games offensively? Batting average and RBIs. If you don't have a lot of guys with high batting average and RBIs then you can try to use some other stats to prioritize among whatever else you do have, but every single coach who is trying to win is still going to take high average and RBIs first. Ted Williams will be the first offensive player selected to start a team whether it is 1941 or 2022.

There was a pretty popular book that was adapted into an Oscar nominated movie about why this is wrong.

 

[2&2 Slider To Leyritz]

what made Ted Williams even a better hitter than his BA was also the fact that he drew alot of walks, didn't strike out often and hit for power. amazingly, statistics have been developed to take all of these things into account.

If you look at the teams that led the MLB in runs this year, it correlated with their OBP slugging % stats, not batting average.

Yes, that is generally the way it works. If you can hit for a high average, it usually means (a) you are good at pitch selection, and (b) the opposing pitchers are trying to pitch around you. The root of everything is the ability to hit the baseball at a high percentage. Everything else flows from there. It is still the hardest thing to consistently do in the sport and the first thing any coach is looking at.

 

[2&2 Slider To Leyritz]

There was a pretty popular book that was adapted into an Oscar nominated movie about why this is wrong.

No, that book/movie prove my point exactly. If you don't have high average and RBIs, there are things you can do to try to make up for it to get to 3rd or 4th place. But at the end of the day, moneyball is still going to lose to the better hitters. You can supplement the better hitters with some moneyball concepts like the Royals did, but you still need to be able to hit the baseball.

 

[ChrisL68]

but why look at BA% when you can use a statistic that factors in the ability to do all of those other things? Here is an example from 2008.

To show an example on this comparison of statistics, two ballplayers who play the same position but have drastically different approaches will be examined: Robinson Cano (Yankees 2B) and BJ Upton (Devil Rays 2B/CF). Both have somewhat similar batting averages this season - despite a slow start, Cano is hitting .263 while Upton is at a clip of .271. The difference between batting averages is less than 1 hit per 100 at bats, so they are nearly the same. When comparing their on base percentages, though, a huge difference is discovered. Cano, who almost never walks, has an on base percentage of just .298, way below the major league average of .330. Upton, on the other hand, carries a .381 on base percentage. So although the two reach base almost exactly the same amount on hits, Upton reaches base nearly 1 more time every 10 at bats than Cano simply because he is willing to take a few strikes in order to draw monumentally more walks.

on base % is a much better judge of one aspect that helps win games, which is getting on base. a walk is just as good as a single. Upton here is a much better batter than Canoe even through their batting averages were almost the same.

 

[thatguy2016]

It is amazing to see how may idiots who still don't understand that advanced stats are to differentiate among the losers. Do you know what still primarily wins baseball games offensively? Batting average and RBIs. If you don't have a lot of guys with high batting average and RBIs then you can try to use some other stats to prioritize among whatever else you do have, but every single coach who is trying to win is still going to take high average and RBIs first. Ted Williams will be the first offensive player selected to start a team whether it is 1941 or 2022.

Yet Ted Williams didn’t win the MVP in 1941 because #Yankees

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Ohtani probably wouldn’t get many RBIs if he was in a lineup with 8 of us.

 

[Biff Tannen]

 

[Liquid Karma]

God Pedro was such a badass. Anytime he pitched was appointment viewing for me.

 

[Strickland33]

I mean, an Ohtani-less Angels probably loses 100 games, and his relative individual impact on the team is absolutely greater than Judge's has been to the Yankees this year, but sure, hold the Angels' shit front office against him when handing out the MVP, I guess.

just so much dumb logic from people you'd absolutely expect to contribute dumb logic

People in or from South Carolina?

 

[EatLeadCommie]

In all sincerity, I find the MVP race between Judge/Ohtani really interesting. You cannot argue that Judge was a much better hitter.

Judge: 696 PA, OPS: 1.111, OPS+: 211 (100 is average), 10.6 brefWAR, K%: 25.1, BB%: 16.0
Ohtani: 666 PA, OPS: 0.875, OPS+: 145 (100 is average), 3.4 brefWAR, K%: 24.2, BB%: 10.8

But then you obviously have to factor in Ohtani as a pitcher:

166 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 172 ERA+, 1.012 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 6.1 brefWAR

Adding them together solely considering WAR, Judge had the better year (10.6 to 9.5). Fangraphs WAR thinks the difference is even more stark (11.4 to 9.5).

But I don't really think that tells the whole story. Ohtani is an elite SP and a very good DH combined into one roster spot. The flexibility that having those two roles be one person gives to a team is incredibly valuable (although the Angels did not capitalize on it at all). It gives your team the ability to carry an extra utility player or an extra bullpen arm. I have no idea if WAR considers this as part of the equation, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

I'd probably give the award to Judge tbh, he was fantastic this year even without considering the dumb HR record. But what Ohtani is kind of breaks the system, because there's not a good way to evaluate how valuable it truly is to have both of his skillsets wrapped up in one player. I wouldn't blame anyone that wants to give the award to Ohtani.

Ohtani is MVP for me, and it isn't even close. Cy Young type numbers with great offensive production. All the metrics in the world can't paint an accurate picture of what that guy does. Ohtani's primary flaw is playing on a crappy team and striking out too much (which Judge also does).

Judge gets the love for a great season, the HR record, and being the face of baseball's premiere franchise. If Judge played for the Royals, there would be far more debate than there currently is over who is the MVP.

 

[deacon14]

Ohtani is MVP for me, and it isn't even close. Cy Young type numbers with great offensive production. All the metrics in the world can't paint an accurate picture of what that guy does. Ohtani's primary flaw is playing on a crappy team and striking out too much (which Judge also does).

Judge gets the love for a great season, the HR record, and being the face of baseball's premiere franchise. If Judge played for the Royals, there would be far more debate than there currently is over who is the MVP.

I hear this, but funnily enough interrupting college football and the debate about the HR record is making people look down on Judge's season more than deserved.

Judge's SLG% is 0.686. The only people to do that since 2000 are Bonds (2000-2004), Sosa (2001), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Todd Helton (2000, Manny Ramirez (2000).
Judge's OPS% is 1.111. The only people to do that since 2000 are Juan Soto (2020), Pujols (2008), and then the same seasons listed above from 2000-2004 with the addition of Jim Thome (once), Larry Walker (once), Jason Giambi (twice).
Judge led the MLB for 2022 in WAR, OBP, SLG, OPS, Runs, Total Bases, HRs, and RBIs.

That's an absolutely historic season as a hitter, and it is really only rivaled by known steroids users as far as the modern era goes (which is a statement to how good the season was, I don't care for the steroids debates).

Ohtani was great this year, but his pitching wasn't nearly as good as Judge's hitting on a historic scale. A look at his pitching:

Ohtani's ERA this season was 2.33, there have been 12 seasons sub-2.00 since 2000.
Ohtani's K/9 was 11.87, that's second best this season (Rodon), and there have been 12 seasons better than that from 2020-2022 alone.
Ohtani's WHIP was 1.012, that's 11th best among SPs this season alone.
Ohtani's IP was 166.0, there were 8 guys that pitched 200+ innings this season and 41 guys that pitched more innings than Ohtani.

Adding in his great but not elite DH stats this year (0.273/0.356/0.519) doesn't take him to the MVP over Judge IMO. The more I research it to post on here, the more confident I am that Judge deserves the MVP over Ohtani, as special as Ohtani is as a player.

 

[deacon14]

Ohtani is MVP for me, and it isn't even close. Cy Young type numbers with great offensive production.

Also this isn't even true, Justin Verlander is -10000 odds to win the AL Cy Young, with Dylan Cease in second place and Ohtani with third best odds (+15000 and won't be happening).

 

[DeacsPop]

Sure let's give the MVP Award to a hitter/pitcher who didn't lead in any of his league's critical batting stats or win their premier pitching award.
Makes perfect sense to me. I have stated my awe of Ohtani but save your breath D14 and your sensible analysis. This is no longer a debate, this is pure Yankee hate.

 

[deacon14]

Goddamn my love of baseball statistical analysis has led me to defending a Yankee and fueling Yankee fans' persecution and superiority complexes, what have I become?