By digging through CDC data, they saw that the reason death rates failed to decline as expected was not entirely due to suicide and substance abuse. Although those factors explained about 40 percent of the gap, the rest was attributable to the leading causes of death—things like heart disease, diabetes, and respiratory disease. Though there are still fewer people dying from those diseases than there were in the 1960s, according to this analysis, the rate of decline has slowed.
That means not only are middle-aged white people drinking more, using more opioids, and killing themselves at higher rates, more of them are getting sick with the diseases that usually kill older people. And when they do get sick, they don’t get better.
This trend was especially concentrated in the South, they found. “In seven southern states—West Virginia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas—the gap between actual and expected mortality in 2014 exceeded 200 deaths per 100,000 people. In West Virginia, mortality rates were higher than at any time since 1980,” they write. The report was not published in a peer-reviewed journal, and its raw data was not made available.
It’s worth noting that, because of historic racial injustice, health outcomes for African Americans still lag behind those of white Americans in many areas. African Americans
die an average of four years younger than white Americans do, for example. However, the mortality rate for African Americans is declining, and that of white Americans is increasing—a historically anomalous trend.
Squires and Blumenthal think the worsening economic standing of uneducated, middle-aged whites might have played a role.