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BillBrasky Memorial Political Chat Thread

Yes the economy has traversed through a very rough post covid period and seems to be coming out much better than expected.

Frustrating that an admin can leave with inflation ramping up and not have any accountability.

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ChrisL68 said:
Yes the economy has traversed through a very rough post covid period and seems to be coming out much better than expected.

Frustrating that an admin can leave with inflation ramping up and not have any accountability.

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The GOP has done a great job getting people to believe that the sky is falling.
 
PhDeac said:
You could argue that by November Biden could be riding on 2+ years of steady wage growth and falling inflation.
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“From this, it’s clear that most workers saw their real wages decline throughout nearly all of 2021 and 2022. Positive real wage growth only resumed in February of this year.”
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
“From this, it’s clear that most workers saw their real wages decline throughout nearly all of 2021 and 2022. Positive real wage growth only resumed in February of this year.”
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So 3 years of increasing real wage growth rates (the bottom on that chart was Nov 2021) and 1.75 years of steady positive real wage growth.
 
PhDeac said:
So 3 years of increasing real wage growth rates (the bottom on that chart was Nov 2021) and 1.75 years of steady positive real wage growth.
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lol Remind me not to hire you for a campaign
 
What did I get wrong?
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Meh doesn’t feel right so will ignore.
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One of the tough things that I’ve had to learn as a wildlife management researcher is that you he people and thier feelings about the system matter. If your hunters are pissed the health of the deer population is irrelevant. You can do all the analysis you want to show that the management actions are working, that deer abundance is up and harvest rates are up, but if the hunters are pissed none of it matters. You have to shift your focus and research why they are pissed.
 
this feels like wasted desperation to find the exact interpretation or spin of economic research that will absolve the President of any blame for voters economic disapproval. I don’t think the best most convincing tweet in the world is going to fix Biden’s approval rating.
 
PhDeac said:
What did I get wrong?
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Well for starters, you are citing a year (at least) of negative wage growth as a positive outcome which you seem to believe that voters should have taken hope from.

I get the whole “line on graph going up is a positive trend” view, but people don’t experience their wages in that way. What -1 wage growth actually means, is a period of time where most responders to this research reported that their wages had fallen from the previous year, where they had fallen from the previous year. The notion that workers/voters would have taken a positive view of this, as an upward trend, is ridiculous. Thats why Matt Bruenig specifically mentioned that real positive wage growth did not begin until early 2023.
 
You take a room of 100 voters and the majority of them tell you they are making $100 less dollars per month than the previous year, you wouldn’t realistically respond to them by saying “well that shows the economy is improving, because last year you reported you were making $200 dollars less than the previous year”
 
The stupid poors just need help realizing how much better they have it now.

Quick, someone throw a linegraph on a bilboard and put it up on business 40. I think we already used the spot once.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
You take a room of 100 voters and the majority of them tell you they are making $100 less dollars per month than the previous year, you wouldn’t realistically respond to them by saying “well that shows the economy is improving, because last year you reported you were making $200 dollars less than the previous year”
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your point still stands, but since we're talking real wages my understanding isn't that people are making $100 less per month than two years ago, but that it costs $100 per month to buy the same things (assuming your salary/hourly wage is the same as two years ago)

I think this distinction could matter because people feel it every day when they buy groceries or gas or dinner or whatever and it's constantly in their face about how much more expensive things are
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Well for starters, you are citing a year (at least) of negative wage growth as a positive outcome which you seem to believe that voters should have taken hope from.

I get the whole “line on graph going up is a positive trend” view, but people don’t experience their wages in that way. What -1 wage growth actually means, is a period of time where most responders to this research reported that their wages had fallen from the previous year, where they had fallen from the previous year. The notion that workers/voters would have taken a positive view of this, as an upward trend, is ridiculous. Thats why Matt Bruenig specifically mentioned that real positive wage growth did not begin until early 2023.
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No shit. But those are the facts and frankly that’s how recovery works. Things get really bad, then less bad, then better. The complaint is that process didn’t happen quickly enough which frankly is a sign that people have memory holed the pandemic and expected an unrealistic turnaround.

But what we got was a reasonable recovery. Things got really bad as we were still just getting vaccinated and wearing masks. Things got less bad as the spread of COVID slowed down. Things got better as we established a new normal.

My main point which you conveniently ignored was if trends hold, Biden will be working with almost two years of real positive wage growth by the time people actually vote. So if you believe feelings align with these facts, people will feel better about the economy when it matters.
 
The recovery has gone significantly better than most expected.

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