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Bullshit Trump Says

cville deac said:
That is a bit risible.

Trump's poll #s have been on the rise the last week or 2. I often marvel at how they go up or down a point or 2 without seeming correlation to external events. Any of y'all have any theories as to why he's doing better recently?
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Random variation.
 
birdman said:
Random variation.
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I've been monitoring the approval ratings since he got elected, and, since the 1st couple of months, his average approval rating (Silver's or RCP's) has been between 38-43%. The odd thing is that they go up or down a little, but they mostly don't appear to have a correlation to events in recent news cycles. He's up near 43% now, and it's not like the events over the last few weeks have been overly helpful to him. People keep saying that his response to Cville was the lowest point of his presidency, however the polls in the few weeks after 8/12 had him going up a point or so. I'm the kind of person who likes to have logical explanations for things, but I will accept your random variation as the only apparent answer.
 
cville deac said:
I've been monitoring the approval ratings since he got elected, and, since the 1st couple of months, his average approval rating (Silver's or RCP's) has been between 38-43%. The odd thing is that they go up or down a little, but they mostly don't appear to have a correlation to events in recent news cycles. He's up near 43% now, and it's not like the events over the last few weeks have been overly helpful to him. People keep saying that his response to Cville was the lowest point of his presidency, however the polls in the few weeks after 8/12 had him going up a point or so. I'm the kind of person who likes to have logical explanations for things, but I will accept your random variation as the only apparent answer.
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I attribute it to random sampling variation of the polls and temporal variation in people’s opinions. Statistically, 43% is pretty much the same as 38% especially when each poll has a standard deviation estimated at 3 or 4%. That basically means that if the estimated support for trump is 38% with a 3.5% standard error, you’d have a 95% chance of getting anywhere between 31% and 45% support for if you ran the survey a second time. The fact the the surveys show no sustained trend and seem to vary unrelated to any correlates further supports the hypothesis that week to week or month to month variation in Trumps support is purely random variation.
 
birdman said:
I attribute it to random sampling variation of the polls and temporal variation in people’s opinions. Statistically, 43% is pretty much the same as 38% especially when each poll has a standard deviation estimated at 3 or 4%. That basically means that if the estimated support for trump is 38% with a 3.5% standard error, you’d have a 95% chance of getting anywhere between 31% and 45% support for if you ran the survey a second time. The fact the the surveys show no sustained trend and seem to vary unrelated to any correlates further supports the hypothesis that week to week or month to month variation in Trumps support is purely random variation.
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PoLlS aRe UsElEsS tHeY gOt 2016 WrOnG
 
birdman said:
I attribute it to random sampling variation of the polls and temporal variation in people’s opinions. Statistically, 43% is pretty much the same as 38% especially when each poll has a standard deviation estimated at 3 or 4%. That basically means that if the estimated support for trump is 38% with a 3.5% standard error, you’d have a 95% chance of getting anywhere between 31% and 45% support for if you ran the survey a second time. The fact the the surveys show no sustained trend and seem to vary unrelated to any correlates further supports the hypothesis that week to week or month to month variation in Trumps support is purely random variation.
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Sorry, I wasn't clear. I get that individual polls have 3-4% standard deviations. And I get that certain pollsters tend to be on the low side of the average (say Gallup) and others (say the Economist) tend to usually be on the high side, and that's due to the bias of their model. I'm talking about the polling average across all the polls. Both 538 and RCP have the overall average of Trump's recent favorability polls, and RCP also lists the daily polls. So if there's an overall uptick or a downtick, that means it's an across the board movement. I'm no stats person at all, but you still think a point or 2 of movement either way is still mostly random?
 
cville deac said:
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I get that individual polls have 3-4% standard deviations. And I get that certain pollsters tend to be on the low side of the average (say Gallup) and others (say the Economist) tend to usually be on the high side, and that's due to the bias of their model. I'm talking about the polling average across all the polls. Both 538 and RCP have the overall average of Trump's recent favorability polls, and RCP also lists the daily polls. So if there's an overall uptick or a downtick, that means it's an across the board movement. I'm no stats person at all, but you still think a point or 2 of movement either way is still mostly random?
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Yes, I think it is random. Averaging across multiple polls helps dampen the sampling variance, you're right, but an honest presentation of the data would still present uncertainty in the estimates. The green shaded area around the central line presented in this 538 tracking figure shows the estimate uncertainty:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

There has basically been no change in Trump's approval since February 10th. Even the dip at the end of January is well with in the confidence boundary of today's estimate...42% is no different from 39.5% given the spread of the data. 538 does a really good job with this and I really like how the estimated approvals are influence by the previous estimates and weight by poll sample size and poll quality.
 
Yes. Such week to week movement is due to sampling moreso than people changing their minds.

Even if a poll shows Trump’s approval goes from 40 to 42, would it really be that big of a deal if it meant 2% out of the 60% changed their minds for a week? Not really.
 
Deadbolt said:
They bend the narrative of new information to fit whatever bias they already have.
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See the Left, Tunnels.

The board pivot away from 2+ years of 'RUSSIAN COLLUSION' to 'OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE!!!' is a perfect illustration of this.
 
Colonel Angus said:
See the Left, Tunnels.

The board pivot away from 2+ years of 'RUSSIAN COLLUSION' to 'OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE!!!' is a perfect illustration of this.
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Pretty sure a lot of really smart people on here have been saying that obstruction of justice was going to be the real thing out of all of this for years. Mostly because there are a lot of smart people on here who, unlike you, realize that "collusion" was made up by Trump to have something to fight against because there is no such thing as criminal collusion.
 
Smart people like this?

 
Five members of the jury want to get to the bottom of the issue to protect the integrity of our government, the other four only want to hear the defendant's and his attorney's story while proudly wearing a red hat.
 
Colonel Angus said:
Smart people like this?

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What the fuck is Glenn Greenwald talking about here and why is he referencing Barr’s summary letter in the first tweet?

For anyone who’s actually been following this debacle of historical proportion, the reporting on the Russian scandal has been top notch. The Mueller report confirmed a lot of the reporting from the past two years.
 
WakeForestRanger said:
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He just laughs it off.

Anyone whose reply to anything trump does is “but Obama !” is completely disingenuous.

Dude is in a league of his own assholery/poor leadership.
 
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