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Buy or Sell Aminu being in NBA in 5 years

ArlingtonDeac said:
He's a 21 year old that rebounds above the league average. He'll play 10+ years, either as rotation guy or as a guy filling out the end of a bench. Guys like that always have work in the NBA, and Aminu's got soft hands and a nice shot to boot. I have no problem saying he'll have a long NBA career. I don't think he's really found his niche yet.
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That's because still has no skill that contributes to an NBA team outside of athleticism and some size.

For one, though he's 6'9, he's still 215-pounds. And he's a skinny 215-pounds. He can't shoot from inside or outside of the arc (31% 3FG last year and 0% thus far this year vs. 43.7% 2FG last year and 36.4% this year), he's not a great finisher, and he still lacks the handles to create anything for himself. He's a solid defender, but that's almost entirely contingent on his athleticism right now. I liked AFA at Wake, but he has not improved (via stats or tape) at all despite being placed in two optimal positions to produce and produce a lot.

In five games he's rebounding the ball at a respectable rate, but last season he was pretty terrible all things considered (7.3 rebounds per 40 minutes is nothing to cheer about if you're an elite 6'9 athlete with a 7'4 wingspan). He is also just as turnover prone as at any point in his career...
 
He's shooting better from the NBA three point line than he did in college. He's a pretty much automatic free throw shooter now. He's a much better ball-handler than he was in college. He's added some muscle.
 
He has had a terrible start this year and not playing much. Switching teams in his 2nd year doesn't help. Making any significant statements about his play this year would make SmallSampleSizeDeac proud. He worked very hard on his shot last year and was over 40% from three for over the 1st half of the NBA season before hitting the rookie wall.

I don't know why people can't wait to read the eulogy on our early entries NBA careers.
 
Strickland33 said:
That's because still has no skill that contributes to an NBA team outside of athleticism and some size.

For one, though he's 6'9, he's still 215-pounds. And he's a skinny 215-pounds. He can't shoot from inside or outside of the arc (31% 3FG last year and 0% thus far this year vs. 43.7% 2FG last year and 36.4% this year), he's not a great finisher, and he still lacks the handles to create anything for himself. He's a solid defender, but that's almost entirely contingent on his athleticism right now. I liked AFA at Wake, but he has not improved (via stats or tape) at all despite being placed in two optimal positions to produce and produce a lot.

In five games he's rebounding the ball at a respectable rate, but last season he was pretty terrible all things considered (7.3 rebounds per 40 minutes is nothing to cheer about if you're an elite 6'9 athlete with a 7'4 wingspan). He is also just as turnover prone as at any point in his career...
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He was 9th in the NBA in rebound rate for all SFs last year.
 
I hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking sell. He is providing almost nothing on the offensive end. On the defensive end, he's good but does not seem strong enough to cut it at the 4 and I'm not sure he is quick enough and doesn't have the attitude to become a lockdown defender at the three. Hopefully he can earn a lot of minutes for this young NO team and find a niche.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
...He was 9th in the NBA in rebound rate for all SFs last year.
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Yeah, and he was solid on the boards. That's why I said respectable. A good rebounding rate definitely correlates with rebounding prowess, but it doesn't necessarily mean he was top-10 NBA rebounder. He didn't even play 20 minutes a game... Here are the top guys who played 20+ minutes.

This is also assuming he's a SF... The rookie wall you speak of was also about him being unable to match-up with SFs than it was him not making shots. If he was a lockdown defender, then they'd find a way to keep him on the floor...

I was just saying that he hasn't improved all that much since college and he really doesn't do anything well enough yet to carve out a niche.

He may carve out a niche (and more) and I hope he does, but as a hyped lotto pick struggled to crack a 29-win team's SF rotation consisting of Rasual Butler (32.6% 3FG), Ryan Gomes (34.1% 3FG), and Randy Foye (32.7% 3FG), color me unimpressed... Dude played 81 games last year and didn't start a game after starting by default for the first 14 (because of the above rotation's s**ttiness.

Here are the splits, btw:

He shot the ball well (for 32 games at the very beginning of the season and in 14 games as a starter)... The rest of the time? Well, I'll give you a hint: the above rotation had him by about 10-percentage points.

And Hollinger has him #58 in PER among NBA SFs. I could go on, but he's just not that good yet. I hope he will be, but the time wasn't last year and, if this year is any indication, it's not quite now, either.
 
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TBDeac said:
I hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking sell. He is providing almost nothing on the offensive end. On the defensive end, he's good but does not seem strong enough to cut it at the 4 and I'm not sure he is quick enough and doesn't have the attitude to become a lockdown defender at the three. Hopefully he can earn a lot of minutes for this young NO team and find a niche.
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+1
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
Aminu is the 13th youngest player in the NBA (They haven't entered Cory Higgins birthday yet). Out of 450. OMG HE HAS HAD A TERRIBLE START TO THIS YEAR HE IS DONE IMO.
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He was 59th in PER last year and 58th this year.

I agree with you that he's got a ton of potential to do some things very well, but it can't be that much of a leap for you to admit that he's really not that good yet. Can it?
 
Strickland33 said:
Yeah, and he was solid on the boards. That's why I said respectable. A good rebounding rate definitely correlates with rebounding prowess, but it doesn't necessarily mean he was top-10 NBA rebounder. He didn't even play 20 minutes a game... Here are the top guys who played 20+ minutes.

This is also assuming he's a SF... The rookie wall you speak of was also about him being unable to match-up with SFs than it was him not making shots. If he was a lockdown defender, then they'd find a way to keep him on the floor...

I was just saying that he hasn't improved all that much since college and he really doesn't do anything well enough yet to carve out a niche.

He may carve out a niche (and more) and I hope he does, but as a hyped lotto pick struggled to crack a 29-win team's SF rotation consisting of Rasual Butler (32.6% 3FG), Ryan Gomes (34.1% 3FG), and Randy Foye (32.7% 3FG), color me unimpressed...

Here are the splits, btw:

He shot the ball well (for 32 games at the very beginning of the season and in 14 games as a starter)... The rest of the time? Well, I'll give you a hint: the above rotation had him by about 10-percentage points.

And Hollinger has him #58 in PER among NBA SFs. I could go on, but he's just not that good yet. I hope he will be, but the time wasn't last year and, if this year is any indication, it's not quite now, either.
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You said respectable this year and terrible all things considered last year because of his measurables. 9th is not terrible all things considered no matter your measurables.

His rookie year wasn't great but it wasn't bad either. It showed promise for how young he is... He isn't a good player yet but the fact that this thread even popped up is asinine.
 
Buy. Duh.

If Marvin Williams is still in the league, Aminu will be just fine.
 
Strickland33 said:
He was 59th in PER last year and 58th this year.

I agree with you that he's got a ton of potential to do some things very well, but it can't be that much of a leap for you to admit that he's really not that good yet. Can it?
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He isn't good yet. I never said he was good yet. People are talking about him being out of the league. Already.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
You said respectable this year and terrible all things considered last year because of his measurables. 9th is not terrible all things considered no matter your measurables.

His rookie year wasn't great but it wasn't bad either. It showed promise for how young he is... He isn't a good player yet but the fact that this thread even popped up is asinine.
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He didn't log 20 minutes per game. You brought up sample size, but statisticians usually consider adjusted stats reliable for 20+ mpg. Remember Marresse Speights's adjusted freshman year stats, for instance???

I agree with you about the thread. It's stupid. He's a lotto pick. He'll be in the league five years. Outside of Joe Alexander and some internationals who never hopped the pond, I can't think of anybody. Perhaps Adam Morrison? But if there was no lockout, one would have to imagine he would have been picked up for the minimum somewhere and he's doing well overseas.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
He isn't good yet. I never said he was good yet. People are talking about him being out of the league. Already.
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I was responding to the point in bold. He hasn't found a niche because he doesn't fill a niche (even on the hapless Clips and Hornets)... I still stand by that point.
 
Strickland33 said:
He didn't log 20 minutes per game. You brought up sample size, but statisticians usually consider adjusted stats reliable for 20+ mpg. Remember Marresse Speights's adjusted freshman year stats, for instance???

I agree with you about the thread. It's stupid. He's a lotto pick. He'll be in the league five years. Outside of Joe Alexander and some internationals who never hopped the pond, I can't think of anybody. Perhaps Adam Morrison? But if there was no lockout, one would have to imagine he would have been picked up for the minimum somewhere and he's doing well overseas.
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It is helpful to remember what I am arguing against. Aminu has a long way to go offensively but he has barely had a cup of coffee in the NBA yet and people are calling him lazy and saying he will be out of the league soon.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
It is helpful to remember what I am arguing against. Aminu has a long way to go offensively but he has barely had a cup of coffee in the NBA yet and people are calling him lazy and saying he will be out of the league soon.
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I never called him lazy. I was just pointing out the obvious that he can't contribute anything to a team yet as an SF or a PF and that's why he's not producing or playing as much as we'd like him to...

So, can we agree that we agree?
 
Strickland33 said:
I never called him lazy. I was just pointing out the obvious that he can't contribute anything to a team yet as an SF or a PF and that's why he's not producing or playing as much as we'd like him to...

So, can we agree that we agree?
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that's fine. He will be a SF when it's all said and done if he can improve his offensive game.
 
He'll be there. He's a kid still learning the game but his raw skill is going to keep him around five years easy. That's a couple of contracts.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
that's fine. He will be a SF when it's all said and done if he can improve his offensive game.
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I think he'd benefit tremendously by looking at the evolution of guys such as Thaddeus Young and Josh Smith, both of whom are far better as face-up PFs rather than underskilled SFs. Aminu has always struck me as a true-tweener in that sense and unless he develops a legitimate mid-range game anytime soon, it might help him a lot. It's not a knock on Aminu at all. Both of those guys turned a major corner when they started to play towards their strengths more often.*

*Ignore Josh Smith's horrific overtime jump shots. He was doing so well...
 
TBDeac said:
I hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking sell. He is providing almost nothing on the offensive end. On the defensive end, he's good but does not seem strong enough to cut it at the 4 and I'm not sure he is quick enough and doesn't have the attitude to become a lockdown defender at the three. Hopefully he can earn a lot of minutes for this young NO team and find a niche.
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right now this is my opinion too.
 
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