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Chat Thread: exploring BBD's virtual bunghole

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PhDeac said:
So is that's not really a "supply" problem. That's the old location, location, location problem. There aren't enough "good" places to live.
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There is absolutely a lack of total number of homes. There was over a decade after the GFC where new homebuilding was way below the trend line of decades before that. We're still catching up and it will take years to get back to trend.
 
DeacsATS said:
My point was more that inventory (both new construction and existing homes) remains very low. So if you are looking to move to a specific area, your choices are severely limited right now. Often times, you need to settle for something that is less than ideal, but located where you want it to be.

As more supply hits the market, that scenario is less of an issue... Less of a scarcity value kind of a premium.

No idea if supply or demand will cause prices to come down significantly... It's obviously going to have to be a combination of both.

But we're still going to be "undersupplied" for years and years (not just in the total number of new homes, but also the type of housing and location). There are houses out there, but they are the wrong kind and/or in the wrong spots.
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You also fail to mention that Blackrock can pay cash for these available homes while most buyers have to get mortgages. So buyers aren't just competing against each other, we are also competing against huge corporations that have an advantage over us.
 
TimmyClutch said:
You also fail to mention that Blackrock can pay cash for these available homes while most buyers have to get mortgages. So buyers aren't just competing against each other, we are also competing against huge corporations that have an advantage over us.
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yea this is a component that i wish that market fundamentalists would take into consideration

the housing market has never existed on equal footing, but the presence of institutional investors has absolutely destroyed the supply of starter home, suburban and exurban SFH, etc. housing stock
 
TimmyClutch said:
You also fail to mention that Blackrock can pay cash for these available homes while most buyers have to get mortgages. So buyers aren't just competing against each other, we are also competing against huge corporations that have an advantage over us.
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Right. Buyers have to work with huge corporations to get a mortgage to compete against huge corporations trying to buy the same homes.

How many homes are mostly rental properties as well? There are plenty of places to live. But they are commodities owned in a way that makes it hard for people to actually buy them to live there.
 
A few years ago we got an air bnb. A little condo in a gated community in Florida. First time I realized big companies were buying up entire complexes to make into vacation rentals for the haves. It's kinda sickening. We've avoided those since and deal with the home owners. Even many of those are probably holding more than one property as an investment.
 
guitardeac said:
Umm, the point was that with the old mattress they stayed at a hotel. There was a reason I didn't replace the mattress myself.
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corporate ownership of houses should prolly go away but who's gonna vote for the proposal that's gonna tank their own home value?
 
DeacsATS said:
My point was more that inventory (both new construction and existing homes) remains very low. So if you are looking to move to a specific area, your choices are severely limited right now. Often times, you need to settle for something that is less than ideal, but located where you want it to be.

As more supply hits the market, that scenario is less of an issue... Less of a scarcity value kind of a premium.

No idea if supply or demand will cause prices to come down significantly... It's obviously going to have to be a combination of both.

But we're still going to be "undersupplied" for years and years (not just in the total number of new homes, but also the type of housing and location). There are houses out there, but they are the wrong kind and/or in the wrong spots.
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i don't disagree, but prices can only go so high without pushing out people that cannot afford it

i'm making a distinciton between "settle for something less than ideal" and "do not have enough money for down payment/financing on the existing available housing stock"
 
PhDeac said:
Right. Buyers have to work with huge corporations to get a mortgage to compete against huge corporations trying to buy the same homes.

How many homes are mostly rental properties as well? There are plenty of places to live. But they are commodities owned in a way that makes it hard for people to actually buy them to live there.
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They are building an 80+ unit townhouse neighborhood near me. 2 stories each and stacked on top of each other. They made a big deal about having affordable housing options for the community. At a community meeting i asked local (republican) politician that voted for this if she had taken any campaign donations from the builder. She ignored me once so I politely interrupted her word salad to ask again. She said no. The next meeting my neighbor had the research and when she tried to talk around it he read the reported dollar figures to her. F U Susan. Your ass was voted out less than a year later.

The model opened recently. Starts at 500k and two of the initial row already have for rent signs up.
 
dartsndeacs said:
corporate ownership of houses should prolly go away but who's gonna vote for the proposal that's gonna tank their own home value?
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Some people will. Some people won't. Just like any other issue that could affect people's wallets. But with fewer and fewer homeowners, that's more potential voters.
 
The good news (?) is that if the house of cards falls apart, those corporations will absolutely get reamed on the way down.

As it is, companies like Zillow realized how terrible of a business it was to buy and maintain an inventory of homes and have since exited the business.

I realize that is different from what other corporations are doing in terms of multi-family or communities.
 
Like a lot of other things, the state of the housing market also varies dramatically based on location. Taking the Triangle as an example, we’ve had a significant influx of high earners or high net worth individuals and housing supply is years behind. Homes may not continue to appreciate at the same rate but it doesn’t feel like a huge correction is coming herez
 
Holy shit this person I have to interact with a couple times a month now (thanks internal committees!) says “let me double click on that” to mean follow up or highlight some piece of information. This is corporate buzzword bullshit at its absolute worst.
 
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