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Chat Thread: exploring BBD's virtual bunghole

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JuiceCrewAllStar said:
some signs that a peak was reached last summer: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS


this one p crazy: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS
Click to expand...
This one shows what I was talking about in terms of building below trend...

fred.stlouisfed.org

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Single-Family Units

Graph and download economic data for New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Single-Family Units (HOUST1F) from Jan 1959 to Feb 2023 about housing starts, privately owned, 1-unit structures, family, housing, and USA.
fred.stlouisfed.org

fredgraph.png
 
yeah, i think we're talking past each other a bit here

I don't have any disagreements with you on the supply side of things

my point is that the demand side cannot keep up with the current rate of change -- simply not enough people making the kind of money needed to buy houses at the prices they've been going for for houses to continue going up beyond that

supply side changes would release some pressure from that market no doubt -- i'm only commenting on the relationship of home prices to income
 
I just had one of those conversations with a co-worker where I call with a specific problem and she spends 20 minutes telling me it actually isn't a problem... Then she suddenly realizes HOLT SHIT IT IS A PROBLEM and now she's trying to present it to me like she just discovered there is a problem.

At least I don't have to solve it.
 
DeacsATS said:
The good news (?) is that if the house of cards falls apart, those corporations will absolutely get reamed on the way down.

As it is, companies like Zillow realized how terrible of a business it was to buy and maintain an inventory of homes and have since exited the business.

I realize that is different from what other corporations are doing in terms of multi-family or communities.
Click to expand...

And their tenants will get evicted

The foreclosure crisis already showed us what this looks like

Not really good news imo
 
DeacsATS said:
I just had one of those conversations with a co-worker where I call with a specific problem and she spends 20 minutes telling me it actually isn't a problem... Then she suddenly realizes HOLT SHIT IT IS A PROBLEM and now she's trying to present it to me like she just discovered there is a problem.

At least I don't have to solve it.
Click to expand...
Check out the hook while ATS resolves it
 
DeacsATS said:
I just had one of those conversations with a co-worker where I call with a specific problem and she spends 20 minutes telling me it actually isn't a problem... Then she suddenly realizes HOLT SHIT IT IS A PROBLEM and now she's trying to present it to me like she just discovered there is a problem.

At least I don't have to solve it.
Click to expand...
good to know this happens outside the software engineering world too
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
yeah, i think we're talking past each other a bit here

I don't have any disagreements with you on the supply side of things

my point is simply that the demand side cannot keep up with the current rate of change -- simply not enough people making the kind of money needed to buy houses at the prices they've been going for for houses to continue going up beyond that

supply side changes would release some pressure from that market no doubt -- i'm only commenting on the relationship of home prices to income
Click to expand...

Yeah.

It is a complicated thing, though. Inflation also didn't/doesn't help in terms of cost to actually build a house (both labor and materials).

But I guess that's why we have economic cycles.
 
DeacsATS said:
I just had one of those conversations with a co-worker where I call with a specific problem and she spends 20 minutes telling me it actually isn't a problem... Then she suddenly realizes HOLT SHIT IT IS A PROBLEM and now she's trying to present it to me like she just discovered there is a problem.

At least I don't have to solve it.
Click to expand...

did you tell her about the supply side
 
Strickland33 said:
And their tenants will get evicted

The foreclosure crisis already showed us what this looks like

Not really good news imo
Click to expand...

Yeah, that was the reason for the question mark.

Housing prices going up is a problem... Housing prices going down is a huge problem.

Inflation is similar. Sucks going up. Sucks a lot going way up. Arguably worse to have actual deflation.
 
DeacsATS said:
Yeah.

It is a complicated thing, though. Inflation also didn't/doesn't help in terms of cost to actually build a house (both labor and materials).

But I guess that's why we have economic cycles.
Click to expand...
yeah, i couldn't figure out how to set the chart to real dollars
 
DeacsATS said:
Not to go even deeper into this, but another good chart to look at is cost to rent vs. buy... The inflections in that chart tell a big story.
Click to expand...
NOTE: I cannot locate a good version of this chart anywhere online.
 
ATS is definitely in the pocket of BIG CORPORATE LANDLORDS. How do y’all think he paid for that mansion?
 
DeacsATS said:
NOTE: I cannot locate a good version of this chart anywhere online.
Click to expand...
Say what you will, but I’m just not looking forward to having to rent Townie’s condo from him because it’s the only thing in DC I can afford. I’m sure it smells like patchouli oils and a musty library. Probably end up finding unopened bags of quinoa in the cupboards.
 
Just got an email from an offshore company asking if I'd be interested in hiring someone with 4 years experience to do my job for $10/hr. This whole remote work thing is gonna offshore all of us outta jobs, isn't it?
 
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