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Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

You’re saying they could get $100M+ for 7 home games. That’s ridiculous.
 
I agree.

I do, however, think that ND will let the B1G twist around and use the possibility of joining the B1G as a massive bargaining chip, and the B1G currently has no incentive to rush to invite anyone else before ND

ND would need to join a conference if they were shut out of a path to the CFP as an independent, but of course the SEC would not willingly make a move which would increase the likelihood of ND joining the B1G
 
Pilchard said:
When Notre Dame's TV contract with NBC ends after the the 2025 season (four seasons from now), they are going to have TV Networks and streaming services throwing ridiculous sums of money at them as, with conference consolidation, there are now more viewing platforms than there are available purveyors of power football. Notre Dame will be able to negotiate an annual football only payment that is far more than even the Big 10 can offer. There are now more broadcast options (with money) than ever before. Amazon is now paying the NFL $1 billion a year to televise just Thursday night games. Not a stretch to think that ND will get offers of 10%+ of that for ND's home football games and related football content. Such a move would also allow ND to keep its independent status in football (and control its schedule), while also receiving the benefit of playing in the ACC conference for all of its other sports.

Just don't see ND giving up all of that money and control so that it can be treated the same as Purdue and Indiana. ND will stay independent.
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If ND stays independent, how valuable is their brand when they can't play for a national championsip? By 2025, I think the 2 mega conferences will be settled, and will be playing for a defacto national championship. Will people still want to watch notre dame football? Probably, but not quite at the level they might expect.
 
to show how stupid the ND TV money will look (and I am not disagreeing with Pilchard...but this is funny money), here is their 2022 home schedule:

Marshall
Cal
BYU
Stanford
UNLV
Clemson
Boston College

Their 2023 schedule:

Navy (in Dublin)
Tennessee State
Central Michigan
Ohio State
Southern Cal
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
 
DeacOnCapeCod said:
If ND stays independent, how valuable is their brand when they can't play for a national championsip? By 2025, I think the 2 mega conferences will be settled, and will be playing for a defacto national championship. Will people still want to watch notre dame football? Probably, but not quite at the level they might expect.
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I think the SEC allows ND into the playoff party to prevent ND from being forced to join the B1G
 
Starting this year, the NFL is getting $1 billion for 17 regular games. That's $58.5 million per game.

Don't think it beyond the realm of reasonable possibility that, four years from now, ND can get $14 million per game. Broadcast revenue only goes up, and the the streaming services are willing to lose money on such deals based on the thought that bringing in a commodity like Notre Dame football will lead to an increase in subscribers and legitimize the streaming service as a standard viewing option. We shall see. Think people will be blown away by the deal that ND football will be able to negotiate.

Also, by 2025, don't see the SEC and Big 10 consolidating to the point where no other schools can get into the playoff. Among other reasons, why would the SEC agree to that? They get more teams into the CFP already. The Big 10 doesn't. Currently, the Big 10 is more likely to be left out all together than to have two teams get into, while the SEC gets 2 teams almost every year. When more playoff spots are eventually offered, most of those additional spots are going to the SEC; the SEC has no incentive to work with the Big 10 on CFP slots.
 
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thatguy2016 said:
to show how stupid the ND TV money will look (and I am not disagreeing with Pilchard...but this is funny money), here is their 2022 home schedule:

Marshall
Cal
BYU
Stanford
UNLV
Clemson
Boston College

Their 2023 schedule:

Navy (in Dublin)
Tennessee State
Central Michigan
Ohio State
Southern Cal
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
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Good point. And that schedule gets worse if SEC and Big Ten schools only play each other.

Pilch, paying $58.5 million for the first NFL game of the week and only NFL game on that day and time makes sense. It's an NFL team vs. an NFL team. And the NFL can manipulate the schedule to put some high profile matchups on TNF. Also the only other football is maybe two or three college football games.

By comparison, Notre Dame is mostly playing lesser programs as one of several other college football games. If the game stays at 3:00, it will be still be going head-to-head against the 3:30 marquee SEC game and several other high profile games. ESPN and FOX aren't going to schedule around ND games.
 
But Notre Dame sticks out among college football programs. There's not really a comparable NFL team.
 
Have you looked at some the NFL matchups on Thursday night this year?

Panthers v. Falcons
Commanders v. Bears
Eagles v. Texans
Jags v. Jets

Realize that the NFL is far bigger than ND football, but there are people all over the country that live and die for ND football. It's not a regional following; it's national. ND will be over-paid for the rights to televise their games. We shall see what the ultimate offer is, but think there is a strong chance that money offered to ND will be enough for the Irish to stay independent (keep in mind that ND still receives $$$ from the ACC in addition to its football contract.
 
Pilchard said:
Have you looked at some the NFL matchups on Thursday night this year?

Panthers v. Falcons
Commanders v. Bears
Eagles v. Texans
Jags v. Jets

Realize that the NFL is far bigger than ND football, but there are people all over the country that live and die for ND football. It's not a regional following; it's national. ND will be over-paid for the rights to televise their games. We shall see what the ultimate offer is, but think there is a strong chance that money offered to ND will be enough for the Irish to stay independent (keep in mind that ND still receives $$$ from the ACC in addition to its football contract.
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Each of those god awful NFL games will dwarf all of NDs games this year in ratings except maybe Ohio State where it may be close and that's because Ohio State.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2021/11/30/Media/Notre-Dame-TV.aspx

"No Irish game this season drew more than 4 million viewers. NBC’s best game this season was 3.8 million for the Irish’s lone loss against Cincinnati. Also hurting Notre Dame viewership this season: a sharp drop for its USC game, which averaged just 2.9 million viewers on primetime Oct. 23."

That's still a lot of viewers and worthy of a big contract but comparing it to the NFL is silly. The worst NFL games still get 10 million viewers.
 
And ND will still be playing ACC football opponents if it expects to keep playing in the ACC in all of its other sports. They only have so much control over their football schedule, and thus its value to a broadcaster.
 
BBDeac said:
Each of those god awful NFL games will dwarf all of NDs games this year in ratings except maybe Ohio State where it may be close and that's because Ohio State.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2021/11/30/Media/Notre-Dame-TV.aspx

"No Irish game this season drew more than 4 million viewers. NBC’s best game this season was 3.8 million for the Irish’s lone loss against Cincinnati. Also hurting Notre Dame viewership this season: a sharp drop for its USC game, which averaged just 2.9 million viewers on primetime Oct. 23."

That's still a lot of viewers and worthy of a big contract but comparing it to the NFL is silly. The worst NFL games still get 10 million viewers.
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Only saying that, four years from now (taking into account the present value of money and that TV rights fees contracts only increase), ND may be able to negotiate a contract that is 10% of the annual value of the NFL Thursday night contract, and 25% of the value of per game value of the NFL contract. Using math from your example, a "bad" NFL game gets 10 million viewers, ND football averages 2.9 million viewers; so, ND getting 25% of what the NFL gets for bad football games in rights fees does seem that insane.
 
Pilchard said:
Only saying that, four years from now (taking into account the present value of money and that TV rights fees contracts only increase), ND may be able to negotiate a contract that is 10% of the annual value of the NFL Thursday night contract, and 25% of the value of per game value of the NFL contract. Using math from your example, a "bad" NFL game gets 10 million viewers, ND football averages 2.9 million viewers; so, ND getting 25% of what the NFL gets for bad football games in rights fees does seem that insane.
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/nfl-ra...otching-best-results-in-six-years-11642018351

"Thursday night games, which were carried by Fox and the NFL Network and are streamed on Amazon Prime, AMZN -2.26%▼ averaged 16.4 million viewers this season, a gain of 16%. Next season, Amazon.com Inc. will become the exclusive media outlet for most Thursday games."

Amazon will be paying $1B per year for a 15 game TNF package that averaged 16.4M viewers last year. ND averaged 2.5M over 7 games last year. If ND gets a deal that pays an equivalent per viewer then that would put them in the $60-70M range per year. Amazon is also out there spending F you money because they can and NBC isn't. I think they can get reasonably close to the B1G and SEC when you add in their ACC distribution from non-football stuff plus postseason payouts but I'd be shocked if they got all the way to $100M total.
 
in the face of exploding revenues, it's really perplexing that Swofford and the ACC negotiators saw fit to sign a 20-ish year contract
 
thatguy2016 said:
in the face of exploding revenues, it's really perplexing that Swofford and the ACC negotiators saw fit to sign a 20-ish year contract
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Somewhat dumb but at the same time Wake should thank him. Without a 20 year deal there isn't a 20 year GoR and without a GoR the ACC would be currently experiencing the same thing that the PAC12 and Big12 just went through because I don't think the ACC is getting anywhere close to $100M per school every year if the TV deal(and thus the GoR) were coming up soon.
 
BBDeac said:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nfl-ra...otching-best-results-in-six-years-11642018351

"Thursday night games, which were carried by Fox and the NFL Network and are streamed on Amazon Prime, AMZN -2.26%▼ averaged 16.4 million viewers this season, a gain of 16%. Next season, Amazon.com Inc. will become the exclusive media outlet for most Thursday games."

Amazon will be paying $1B per year for a 15 game TNF package that averaged 16.4M viewers last year. ND averaged 2.5M over 7 games last year. If ND gets a deal that pays an equivalent per viewer then that would put them in the $60-70M range per year. Amazon is also out there spending F you money because they can and NBC isn't. I think they can get reasonably close to the B1G and SEC when you add in their ACC distribution from non-football stuff plus postseason payouts but I'd be shocked if they got all the way to $100M total.
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OK (don't forget that this contact will start 2026, which is 5 seasons from now; so, the per view valuation is likely to rise), $70 million football only annual deal to ND could be (probably would be) enough to keep them out the Big 10. ND still would get revenue from its deal with the ACC. Also, ND loves being an independent in football, it sets them apart. Do they just want to be another program in the Big 10? ND joins the Big 10, and they are just another face in the crowd. The larger point is those thinking that ND is a lock to join the Big 10 may not be right. ND has an avenue to have its cake and eat it too as they can maintain their independence, while still making a ton of money. I agree that the key issue for ND would be to still have a pathway to the CFP as an independent. At the present time, don't see the SEC and Big 10 trying to force everyone else out as the SEC would be empowering their biggest rival, the Big 10, and that doesn't make sense.
 
There is no incentive for ESPN to want to blow up the ACC. Right now, and until 2036, ESPN gets the "valuable" ACC schools (FSU, Clem etc.) for cheap. Why would they want to pay more by having those schools join the SEC? Why would they want to give up cheap schools to Fox by destroying the ACC so Duke, UVA, u*NC etc. can go to the B??G?
 
Pilchard said:
Only saying that, four years from now (taking into account the present value of money and that TV rights fees contracts only increase), ND may be able to negotiate a contract that is 10% of the annual value of the NFL Thursday night contract, and 25% of the value of per game value of the NFL contract. Using math from your example, a "bad" NFL game gets 10 million viewers, ND football averages 2.9 million viewers; so, ND getting 25% of what the NFL gets for bad football games in rights fees does seem that insane.
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I disagree. I think these massive deals to the SEC and Big 10 are going to immediately look terrible and ND will not get anything gigantic.
 
thatguy2016 said:
I think the SEC allows ND into the playoff party to prevent ND from being forced to join the B1G
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If there are 2 mega conferences, I don't believe they invite anyone outside them for a title game, even if it is Notre Dame. Why legitimize these outsider leagues by actually playing them on the field? Its like the Current Power 5... they really don't want to bring in any outside school into the fold. The Power 2 will do the exact same thing.
 
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