Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

[PhDeac]

I doubt it is much of a deterrent the closer you get to the end. Also, a few big money boosters can write big checks.

Sure. The end is 2036. We aren’t close to the end. I could see ESPN trying to make sure teams don’t leap for the next Bjg Ten deal at the earliest. That’s in 7 years.

 

[MichDeac25]

A CBA wuld require a players' union to negotiate on their behalf. Such a diverse set of interests between the players, that seems unlikely. A CBA would definitely not be in the interest of the elite players who currently have no caps on their NIL recovery. Also, CFB is dominated by the South, and unions have a rough time getting started in that region. A CBA may be the best solution, but would be very tough to effectuate.

This isn't really that difficult to imagine.

Either the CFP itself as an entity or the conferences that compete within the CFP mutually agree to some payment restrictions, i.e. the CBA, with a players union comprised of current college football players. Didn't Northwestern players begin a union a few years ago? That will likely snowball as this stuff continues down the road. From there, new college players who want to compete in the CFP or the conferences that compete within the CFP sign onto the CBA as a condition of playing in this division. Their alternative is playing football at colleges outside of the CFP division.

 

[Deaconblue]

Sure. The end is 2036. We aren’t close to the end. I could see ESPN trying to make sure teams don’t leap for the next Bjg Ten deal at the earliest. That’s in 7 years.

Seven years from now is still long before the ACC Grant of Rights ends. Any payouts from media to schools that leave the ACC would come to the ACC. The ACC would have no obligation to send even one cent to a school that chose to not be a member of the ACC.

Media rights ownership and conference affiliation do not have to be the same. But it would be stupid and financially extremely expensive if they are not.

 

[thatguy2016]

This isn't really that difficult to imagine.

Either the CFP itself as an entity or the conferences that compete within the CFP mutually agree to some payment restrictions, i.e. the CBA, with a players union comprised of current college football players. Didn't Northwestern players begin a union a few years ago? That will likely snowball as this stuff continues down the road. From there, new college players who want to compete in the CFP or the conferences that compete within the CFP sign onto the CBA as a condition of playing in this division. Their alternative is playing football at colleges outside of the CFP division.

NLRB rejected the Northwestern football union request

 

[Biff Tannen]

B1G deal has escalator clauses for when the conference grows. They aren't finished adding teams.

 

[MichDeac25]

NLRB rejected the Northwestern football union request

Good point. What was the basis? I seem to recall it was that they were amateur-athletes? Ground has shifted since then.

 

[PhDeac]

Good point. What was the basis? I seem to recall it was that they were amateur-athletes? Ground has shifted since then.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...thwestern-football-teams-attempt-to-unionize/

In what is seen as a surprising decision, the five-member National Labor Relations Board announced Monday that Northwestern’s football players cannot become the first college team to form a union, as the board unanimously voted not to assert its jurisdiction in the matter.


“In the decision, the Board held that asserting jurisdiction would not promote labor stability due to the nature and structure of NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS),” the NLRB announced in a statement. “By statute the Board does not have jurisdiction over state-run colleges and universities, which constitute 108 of the roughly 125 FBS teams. In addition, every school in the Big Ten, except Northwestern, is a state-run institution. As the NCAA and conference maintain substantial control over individual teams, the Board held that asserting jurisdiction over a single team would not promote stability in labor relations across the league.”


However, the NLRB said that its decision does not “preclude reconsideration of this issue in the future.”

 

[Biff Tannen]

Really not much different than volunteering to help out in the Chick-fil-A drive thru. Free food and everything.

 

[PhDeac]

Seven years from now is still long before the ACC Grant of Rights ends. Any payouts from media to schools that leave the ACC would come to the ACC. The ACC would have no obligation to send even one cent to a school that chose to not be a member of the ACC.

Media rights ownership and conference affiliation do not have to be the same. But it would be stupid and financially extremely expensive if they are not.

B1G deal has escalator clauses for when the conference grows. They aren't finished adding teams.

Teams will want to leave for the Big Ten. They seem to have more capacity for a big conference with three network partners instead of just ABC/ESPN. The question is when ACC teams will jump ship and break the GOR. What could make that financially feasible? I don't see anything happening until 2029 at the earliest.

ESPN now has every reason to hype up the ACC as the #2 conference and little reason to pay them like it.

 

[BeachBumDeac]

B1G deal has escalator clauses for when the conference grows. They aren't finished adding teams.

How is it determined how much is added to the contract when the conference grows? Does it go up by the same amount of money no matter which teams they are adding? Or is it negotiable based on the prestige or market?

 

[DownEastDeac]

Wow. So sad for so many. Instead of being about getting a good education while playing FB and some going onto NFL it’s all about getting on field and trying to increase earning FB potential on field even though so many will never sniff any significant $s and sure most aren’t getting a scholly due to academics and lose education opportunity altogether. What a mess.

Overlooked in all the attention given to 40-50 schools who appear headed to operate at a quasi-professional level is that the vast majority of college fb players do go primarily for a chance to keep playing a game they enjoy while getting an education, including over 500 teams at the FCS, DII and DIII levels. One of our local principals played on a DII national runner-up team far from the bright lights of DI, but he has been a great advocate for getting our local kids looks from lower divisions incl. HBCU's in the region.

 

[PhDeac]

Well said, DownEast. If a 2-star transfers from ODU to Virginia Union and gets to play and gets a degree, that's not a bad thing at all.

 

[Deaconblue]

Teams will want to leave for the Big Ten. They seem to have more capacity for a big conference with three network partners instead of just ABC/ESPN. The question is when ACC teams will jump ship and break the GOR. What could make that financially feasible? I don't see anything happening until 2029 at the earliest.

ESPN now has every reason to hype up the ACC as the #2 conference and little reason to pay them like it.

If Texa$$$ and Oklahoma can't financially pay off the Bi12 GoR, I don't see any ACC team doing it.

The GoR means that any payments from any media presentation of any current ACC team go to the ACC. If, for example, (between now and 2036) the B1G wanted to broadcast Ohio State at new member u*NC, the ACC would get paid, not B1G.

And, because the team was not part of the ACC, The ACC would have no obligation to send any money to the departed school.

 

[DeacKillsaDevil]

???

Will the GOR for the B12 be officially up when they leave? I honestly don't remember.

If the end of the GOR was so close, they may have just figure it wasn't worth the hassle and the time in court would have put them on a similar timeline to leaving when they are now.

 

[PhDeac]

Seven years from now is still long before the ACC Grant of Rights ends. Any payouts from media to schools that leave the ACC would come to the ACC. The ACC would have no obligation to send even one cent to a school that chose to not be a member of the ACC.

Media rights ownership and conference affiliation do not have to be the same. But it would be stupid and financially extremely expensive if they are not.

If Texa$$$ and Oklahoma can't financially pay off the Bi12 GoR, I don't see any ACC team doing it.

The GoR means that any payments from any media presentation of any current ACC team go to the ACC. If, for example, (between now and 2036) the B1G wanted to broadcast Ohio State at new member u*NC, the ACC would get paid, not B1G.

And, because the team was not part of the ACC, The ACC would have no obligation to send any money to the departed school.

Yes. I know how it works.

 

[Colonel Angus]

I doubt it is much of a deterrent the closer you get to the end. Also, a few big money boosters can write big checks.

Get real - What booster(s) will commit to stroking that check without an idea of what the potential liability looks like?

There is a reason UT and OU gave four years notice to the Big 12 that neither school would renew GOR upon expiration of current contract in 2025.

 

[DeacDaddy]

B1G deal has escalator clauses for when the conference grows. They aren't finished adding teams.

SSSSSSSSSCCCCCCCCCCOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPP !

 

[Pilchard]

Could be wrong (ask ManMan), but in some ways, the massive Big 10 media rights deal may deter further expansion as in further poaching from other conferences (with ND being the exception).

The primary purpose of expansion is to grow the conference revenue pie so that the new teams allow for the current members to receive more revenue per school. USC and UCLA do that by delivering the West Coast market which is somewhat reflected in this new deal (like OU and Texas did for the SEC).

We shall see, but by setting such a high revenue per school mark with this new deal, it will be hard to justify expansion unless it bring even more revenue per school. Not sure if any combination of ACC teams does that (which partially explains why the ACC has smaller media rights deals). Maybe Clemson and UNC, but maybe not. Other than that, at this time, don't see any two (or more) ACC teams growing the Big 10 pie enough for the expansion to make sense. Also, it's thought that the Big 10 new media rights deal makes it more likely ND stays as an independent:
https://www.onefootdown.com/2022/8/9/23297874/nbc-and-big-10-deal-could-help-keep-notre-dame-football-independent-nd-news-irish-cbs-espn-tv-acc

 

[thatguy2016]

If I am reading the reporting correctly, then the B1G game selection will be:

#1 Fox at noon
#2 NBC 7:00 pm
#3 CBS 3:30

just picking a week at random, 10/8 weekend the B1G games are:

Nebraska-Rutgers
OSU-Michigan St
Wisconsin-NW
Iowa-Illinois
Purdue-Maryland
Michigan-Indiana

So OSU - Michigan State would air at noon on Fox, NBC will show whatever game USC plays, and CBS picks up a table scrap of...Wisconsin-NW? Michigan-Indiana? Yeesh.

 

[DeacInVermont]

Could be wrong (ask ManMan), but in some ways, the massive Big 10 media rights deal may deter further expansion as in further poaching from other conferences (with ND being the exception).

The primary purpose of expansion is to grow the conference revenue pie so that the new teams allow for the current members to receive more revenue per school. USC and UCLA do that by delivering the West Coast market which is somewhat reflected in this new deal (like OU and Texas did for the SEC).

We shall see, but by setting such a high revenue per school mark with this new deal, it will be hard to justify expansion unless it bring even more revenue per school. Not sure if any combination of ACC teams does that (which partially explains why the ACC has smaller media rights deals). Maybe Clemson and UNC, but maybe not. Other than that, at this time, don't see any two (or more) ACC teams growing the Big 10 pie enough for the expansion to make sense. Also, it's thought that the Big 10 new media rights deal makes it more likely ND stays as an independent:
https://www.onefootdown.com/2022/8/9/23297874/nbc-and-big-10-deal-could-help-keep-notre-dame-football-independent-nd-news-irish-cbs-espn-tv-acc

Or, B1G expansion adds additional inventory that the conference can sell to other networks that didn't get a piece of this action (Amazon, Apple, ESPN) especially since Fox/CBS/NBC have saturated their timeslots. I think you are correct that it would be a high hurdle, but not an impossible one to contemplate.