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Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

Ball State Deac said:
I'm not sure how close, if at all, ECU was to joining the ACC during expansion, but boy, had they gotten on that train, their fortunes would be totally different.
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Such a curious take. ECU was as close to joining the ACC as Pfeiffer College and Lenoir Rhyne.
 
Pilchard said:
It would be great if football reps were based upon merit. They should be.

Even though Texas football has been a non-factor for a decade, and A&M has been less of a factor than TCU or even UCF, in recent years, merit and performance alone don't build reps in college football. Texas and Texas A&M will always be the big swinging dicks among the schools in that state, and nationally, even if TCU or Houston perform better on the field. There is a reason that the vaunted SEC worked back channels to bring in Texas and OU, and would laugh at an application from any of the schools that just applied to the Big 12. More than any other sport, in college football, actual performance on the field means the least in building a national brand.
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Can you explain why you think A&M has been less of a factor in college football than TCU? Since 2012, A&M had gone 77-37 with 4 top 25 finishes. In that same time span, TCU has gone 69-44 with 3 top 25 finishes. 2012 was also when A&M joined the SEC and TCU joined the Big 12.


Boise State would've been cooler than UCF.
 
PhDeac said:
To that point, here are the Top 12 finishes of the old Big XII teams vs. the new Big XII teams from 2011-2020. Eleven from the old including seven from OU and nine from the new.

A&M - 2012, 2020
Missouri - 2013
Oklahoma - 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Texas - 2018
Colorado - none
Nebraska - none

UCF - 2013, 2017, 2018
TCU - 2014, 2015, 2017
Houston - 2015
Cincinnati - 2020
BYU - 2020
WVU - none

(Fixed)
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You can't look at those in isolation. Those top 12 finishes by the added schools, or certainly the number of them, are not the same if they're playing in another P5 conference with a P5 schedule. They don't get to play one big bowl game that they throw everything into and maybe one other big game during the regular season and cruise past the rest of the patsies in the AAC in a P5 conference. More likely, you'd see a situation akin to WVU, where the quality of football suffered under a big dog in the conference, and the program fell on hard times as a result. I do think BYU will contend no matter where you put them, though, and potentially UCF simply because of their location and growth.
 
TimmyClutch said:
Can you explain why you think A&M has been less of a factor in college football than TCU? Since 2012, A&M had gone 77-37 with 4 top 25 finishes. In that same time span, TCU has gone 69-44 with 3 top 25 finishes. 2012 was also when A&M joined the SEC and TCU joined the Big 12.


Boise State would've been cooler than UCF.
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Sure. In 2014, 11-1 TCU was ranked in the top 4 in the BCS heading into the last week of the season (they ended up 12-1 after winning the Peach Bowl). The Horned Frogs then beat Iowa State 55-3; yet, tOSU somehow jumped them in the final BCS selection. The controversy led to the Big 12 playing a CG to add to the Big 12's BCS resume. Texas A&M has never been that close to getting into the BCS playoffs (don't tell me about last year; after Bama trucked A&M, they never had a shot at getting a BCS berth). TCU also finished the season in the top 10 two other times in the last 6 seasons (2015 TCU finished #7; 2017 TCU finished #9). Last year, was the only time during that span when A&M finished in the top 10. If you want to widen the lens, in the 2000s, A&M finished the season ranked 5 times (2010, 2012, 2013, 2018 and 2020). OTOH, in the 2000s, TCU has finished the season ranked 11 times.
 
You like CFP that much better? I will try to work CFP in.
 
TimmyClutch said:
Can you explain why you think A&M has been less of a factor in college football than TCU? Since 2012, A&M had gone 77-37 with 4 top 25 finishes. In that same time span, TCU has gone 69-44 with 3 top 25 finishes. 2012 was also when A&M joined the SEC and TCU joined the Big 12.
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aTm has done in the SEC exactly what they did in the Big XII, which is be mediocre with a couple good years. TCU is slipping badly now. There was a time when Patterson was a top 5 coach in CFB. He has now reached Jim Grobe levels of complacency. It's easy to forget that he also inherited a program in very good shape from Franchione (who, oddly enough, proceeded to go to aTm and be terrible). So it's largely coaching that's the difference here, with TCU having a few outlier years where they were a very well coached football team punching above their weight. aTm consistently pulls better recruiting classes and should be better than they are.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
aTm has done in the SEC exactly what they did in the Big XII, which is be mediocre with a couple good years. TCU is slipping badly now. There was a time when Patterson was a top 5 coach in CFB. He has now reached Jim Grobe levels of complacency. It's easy to forget that he also inherited a program in very good shape from Franchione (who, oddly enough, proceeded to go to aTm and be terrible). So it's largely coaching that's the difference here, with TCU having a few outlier years where they were a very well coached football team punching above their weight. aTm consistently pulls better recruiting classes and should be better than they are.
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I think this is similar to the point I was alluding to. While in the early to mid 2000's TCU was an impressive outsider, they are now middle of the pack. And while A&M has been middle of the pack for most of the 2010's, Jimbo has them pretty well stacked now, and poised for a measure of success in the SEC. I think you are going to start seeing A&M be at that top 10 level for the next couple years, while its going to be awkward at TCU for the next couple of years while they try and find a way to let Patterson go with some dignity. The Grobe comparison works particularly well.

All to say when the Big 12 grabbed TCU they grabbed a team that added to their brand, and while they attempted to do that with UCF or Cin, they may have missed the mark.
 
We shall see. TCU had a ton of injuries last year. They are solid this year. You may have to revise your assessment of the Horny Toads.
 
 
So the Big XII loses its two most marketable properties by a longshot and replaces them with four far less marketable properties and will divide revenue 12 ways instead of 10. They're fucked. That's been obvious ever since the PAC 12 didn't engage in swallowing up most of the conference. People seem to be focusing on what a great thing this is for UCF and Cincinnati, but on the whole, nobody's going to watch the Big XII and their newly renegotiated contract is going to put them further behind the 8-ball.
 
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this is a little old but I don't believe it has been shared here - the financial impact to Rutgers of joining the B1G has not been good:

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BiffTannen said:
So the Big XII loses its two most marketable properties by a longshot and replaces them with four far less marketable properties and will divide revenue 12 ways instead of 10. They're fucked. That's been obvious ever since the PAC 12 didn't engage in swallowing up most of the conference. People seem to be focusing on what a great thing this is for UCF and Cincinnati, but on the whole, nobody's going to watch the Big XII and their newly renegotiated contract is going to put them further behind the 8-ball.
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This. There are going to be four major conferences and they are going to pay players more and getter better TV than the future lower-tier Big XII. As a result, those four major conferences are going to get the best players.
 
PhDeac said:
To that point, here are the Top 12 finishes of the old Big XII teams vs. the new Big XII teams from 2011-2020. Eleven from the old including seven from OU and nine from the new.

A&M - 2012, 2020
Missouri - 2013
Oklahoma - 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020
Texas - 2018
Colorado - none
Nebraska - none

UCF - 2013, 2017, 2018
TCU - 2014, 2015, 2017
Houston - 2015
Cincinnati - 2020
BYU - 2020
WVU - none

(Fixed)
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An aside: When has and when will WF have a Top 12 finish?
And how much money is needed to expect a Top 10 finish?

Historically, ND was a relatively unknown college made great by football. And Chicago made it to the big leagues academically, in part, because of football success making that city college relevant. It would seem that WF should do the same. Football is the best vehicle. If WF is actually serious about "good to great" then WF will need to demonstrate it is willing to do innovative things similar to what Chicago did with Alonzo Stagg which was unheard of at the time.
 
BSD, did you grow up in Greenville or do you have a lot of friends who went to ECU? If not, I don’t know where you would have gotten that idea.
 
PhDeac said:
BSD, did you grow up in Greenville or do you have a lot of friends who went to ECU? If not, I don’t know where you would have gotten that idea.
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Lived in Greenville for a couple years. Fun town.
 
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