Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

[BarcaDeac]

People here acting too good for the NIT but we didn’t even qualify for it during the lost decade

 

[PhDeac]

People here acting too good for the NIT but we didn’t even qualify for it during the lost decade

Only one or two people are acting too good for the NIT. Others are saying the NIT isn't a good outcome.

 

[Rafi]

So the NIT run “elevated” us to an outcome you believe is worse?

You hurt your own argument there.

I did not bring up program elevation - you did. My argument is that 5 wins to end the year would be more fun and interesting than losing on Tuesday.

But, from a program elevation standpoint, there are only two data points for the Wake "first 4 vs NIT champ" question. 2017 --> Nothing; 2000 --> NCAA tourney.

 

[DownEastDeac]

If this team were to win the NIT, they’d secure the most wins in a single season in the history of the program. That would be hard to imagine as possible to accomplish and not even make the tournament.

A team/ coach that apparently can't motivate themselves to wrap up an NCAA bid with a (recent history - historically rare) ACC tournament win over an over-matched opponent, is not a threat to have a 5-win run in the NIT.

 

[thatguy2016]

Penn State was 19 after winning the NIT. What were they on Selection Sunday? Maybe we can hit the teens after our NIT run!!!!

Penn State was #31 before they lost to Purdue in the B1G semis and #29 when they took the court to start the NIT

2019 Texas was #27 before they lost to Kansas in the B12 and #30 when they took the court to start the NIT

 

[thatguy2016]

I did not bring up program elevation - you did. My argument is that 5 wins to end the year would be more fun and interesting than losing on Tuesday.

But, from a program elevation standpoint, there are only two data points for the Wake "first 4 vs NIT champ" question. 2017 --> Nothing; 2000 --> NCAA tourney.

but 2000 --> the 2001 equivalent of a first 4 loss

and 2017 had Danny Manning

 

[Rafi]

but 2000 --> the 2001 equivalent of a first 4 loss

I think first 4 is different from playing on Thursday or Friday of the tournament.

 

[thatguy2016]

I think first 4 is different from playing on Thursday or Friday of the tournament.

I think you are being intentionally obtuse

 

[berneses]

SMU about to lose. I wonder what happens if Va Tech loses tonight and A&M loses tomorrow. Both are underdogs in their games.

 

[IckerDeac]

SMU goes down but in respectable fashion. We needed like a 70-35 beat down.

 

[daaberry]

A team/ coach that apparently can't motivate themselves to wrap up an NCAA bid with a (recent history - historically rare) ACC tournament win over an over-matched opponent, is not a threat to have a 5-win run in the NIT.

I disagree… if they win the first one, the sting of missing out goes to rear view and momentum builds. They never seemed like a team that would let a North Texas win at the Joel.
Now watch us lose to North Texas on Tuesday.

 

[thatguy2016]

Before the start of today’s games some 19 year old who started making predictions last year and only missed Syracuse in favor of Louisville had us in. His last 4 were SMU, Wake, Indiana, Rutgers. I think. I posted it earlier. No A&M, which could change now. Hopefully SMU loses. No VT.

Anyway, what I asked earlier is how the consistently best prognosticators usually fared. Have not gotten an answer to that. Do they usually miss 1 at large team? 1.5.

Also it seems unusual for the consensus to be perfect. I would not be surprised to see WY or Rutgers out. In this day and age, with all the information we have, how can Rutgers get in when we know they are not good?

Even if a consensus team or two does not make it I am not sure it will be to our benefit unless the committee stops worshipping at the altar of NCSOS.

There is almost always one team that the consensus has wrong

2019 the Bracket Matrix got 67/68
2018 66/68 (several of the better predictors got 67)
2017 68/68

 

[daaberry]

SMU about to lose. I wonder what happens if Va Tech loses tonight and A&M loses tomorrow. Both are underdogs in their games.

Wake sneaks in and makes a ucla type run. We all forget about the BC game and hang Alondes’ jersey.

 

[Rafi]

I think you are being intentionally obtuse

Really? I think most see the first 4 as different from the Thurs/Fri games. Some argue the first 4 is "not in the tourney." I don't think that, but I do perceive the first 4 differently from Thurs/Fri - not a huge difference, but a difference.

But either way, my main argument is that winning the NIT would be much better than losing on Tuesday night. I've experienced both and found the NIT championship to be way more fun.

 

[thatguy2016]

Really? I think most see the first 4 as different from the Thurs/Fri games. Some argue the first 4 is "not in the tourney." I don't think that, but I do perceive the first 4 differently from Thurs/Fri - not a huge difference, but a difference.

But either way, my main argument is that winning the NIT would be much better than losing on Tuesday night. I've experienced both and found the NIT championship to be way more fun.

well, see, the play-in did not exist in 2001. let's start with that. can we agree on that one?

 

[Rafi]

well, see, the play-in did not exist in 2001. let's start with that. can we agree on that one?

Sure. But we are talking about what we would prefer in 2022 - NIT championship or first 4 loss. And we've pretty much beat this topic into the ground...

 

[Deac83]

The twitter question is not really a good one to debate. The question should be would you take a first 4 vs NIT?

If you tell me the results it's an odd question. Would you rather be embarrassed or not embarrassed?

I believe Wake has won 3 post season games in the last 14 years. Two ACCT games and one NCAAT game. That's Dino thru Forbes.

 

[Haros]

Agree it’s a no brainer. Also agree first four loss is the choice. I haven’t watched an NIT game since Robert Morris got to host Kentucky a decade or whatever ago. I guess I’d DVR and watch after the fact if we made it but I’d be too disappointed to get excited about an NIT game.

 

[thatguy2016]

Sure. But we are talking about what we would prefer in 2022 - NIT championship or first 4 loss. And we've pretty much beat this topic into the ground...

We have. I’d rather get into the First 4 and take my chances. If we lose, we know where we stand against someone in the field of 64.

If we win the NIT, we won a tournament nobody cares about.

 

[Rafi]

The twitter question is not really a good one to debate. The question should be would you take a first 4 vs NIT?

The Twitter question generated a fair amount of discussion. Your question - first 4 vs NIT - I think it's clear everyone would go first 4.