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Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

I think 12-8 in conference play, 1-1 in the ACCT is squarely on the bubble. That's if wins/losses fall in normal places.

If we win our next three games then we are in a really good place, both in terms of wins, and getting wins over solid metrics teams (well BC isn't solid, but the two home games).
 
Yeah obviously simplifying but 12 wins is holding serve in every home game plus 2 road wins. Our most winnable remaining road games are going to be BC, Notre Dame, and Syracuse (but this one in the finale, I expect to be a challenge).

Expected win value of our 7 remaining home games: 4.43 (Torvik) , 3.98 (KenPom)
Expected win value of our 7 remaining road games: 2.78 (Torvik), 2.53 (KenPom)
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I think 12-8 in conference play, 1-1 in the ACCT is squarely on the bubble. That's if wins/losses fall in normal places.

If we win our next three games then we are in a really good place, both in terms of wins, and getting wins over solid metrics teams (well BC isn't solid, but the two home games).
Click to expand...

yes - if we get to 7-2 in the ACC, including wins against Duke and UVA, then we will be on bubble (or better) watch
 
or said another way - we've going to have to pick up a few wins against some of the middle tier ACC teams - Clemson, Pitt, State, Miami in addition to beating the teams we're supposed to like BC, ND, Ga Tech
 
Holding serve at home all year would be extremely nice. That would require winning just one more road game to get to 12 wins. Likely we drop 1-2 and have to offset them.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Holding serve at home all year would be extremely nice. That would require winning just one more road game to get to 12 wins. Likely we drop 1-2 and have to offset them.
Click to expand...
To supplement this post, KenPom believes we will go 3.98-3.02 at home, and gives us only a 1.4% chance to win out at the Joel.

That feels low, but shows where we stand in the advanced metrics.
 
buckets said:
or said another way - we've going to have to pick up a few wins against some of the middle tier ACC teams - Clemson, Pitt, State, Miami in addition to beating the teams we're supposed to like BC, ND, Ga Tech
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are Clemson and Pitt middle tier teams this year?
 
We just need to win - we lose it 38% of the time per KP.

Win by any means necessary and keep us on track for two really big home games next week.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
are Clemson and Pitt middle tier teams this year?
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Probably. They've both exceeded expectations, but even in the NET which doesn't have any recruiting ratings/transfer ratings/historic performance anchoring from the offseason, neither of the teams are in the top 50 of NET. They have had solid seasons but they're probably in the second tier right now as far as what to expect moving forward behind Virginia, Miami, Duke, and UNC. State kind of borderline tier 1/2 IMO right now.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
are Clemson and Pitt middle tier teams this year?
Click to expand...

pitt definitely is

just looking at the standings, clemson looks like they should be a top 25 teams, but the metrics seem to put them in the 50s/60s
 
Does "mid-tier" mean "where they are in the standings", or "what you should reasonably expect them to look like on the court when you actually play them"?

Those are pretty different things in Clemson and Pitt's case.

They're the 7th and 8th ranked teams in the ACC in KP.
 
BC and FSU completely shitting the bed in the OOC part of the schedule before getting shit together is really fucking the ACC up.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
To supplement this post, KenPom believes we will go 3.98-3.02 at home, and gives us only a 1.4% chance to win out at the Joel.

That feels low, but shows where we stand in the advanced metrics.
Click to expand...

Yeah - I posted elsewhere that the ACC home-court winning streak will definitely be put to the test with the next four home games:

Clemson
UVA
NC State
UNC

KP has us at 51% for Clemson and a dog for the other 3 - I think we go 3-1.
 
We made our biggest move last year (from 57 to 31) over the 4 games between January 15-24...

We won:
@UVA 63-55
@GT 80-64
UNC 98-76
BC 87-57

Combo of beating good teams and big margins of victory.

We promptly shit the bed in the next game, losing @Syracuse and falling from 31 to 44.

Point being, if we want to make a similar move this year, we'll need to win our next few games (while putting some stank on the final score).
 
It’s possible (maybe likely) that Louisville is the worst major conference team in the last 20-25 years.
 
Tier 2 and Tier 3 on that list could all be it's own Tier of "who the F knows?"

I think FSU & ND can rise out of Tier Poop.
 
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