thatguy2016
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What were the confidence intervals of prediction interval on the 255000 prediction and the 219000 prediction? Predicting 61 days ahead that there will be 255000 deaths and actually having 223000 is pretty good.
IHME no longer posts their old projections in an easy to reference manner, and I stopped downloading them quite a while ago so I'm not sure
Keep in mind as of September 1 we knew there were 176,000+ deaths to date in the US; therefore the prediction was ~79,000 additional (IHME) or ~43,000 additional (YYG), and actual was ~46,000
so, IHME, after 5 months of practice, was off by more than 70% in its estimate of deaths over those two months
YYG noted that IHME's model for daily deaths had fallen out of the confidence interval after 20 days:
As to the point of mentioning this, IHME is still the source I see referenced most often. Ali Mokdad gets a ton of face time on CNN. Good for him. But if you really want to dive into the forecasts, look around at others to get a complete picture.
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