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Danny Manning Credibility Watch Thread Credibility Watch

SpringChicken said:
I'm guessing there's a disconnect between my definition of "marquee win" and your definition of "Tier A" win. That comes from KP, right? And corresponds to what, top 50?

I'm not saying those would be bad wins, they would be good wins (and I'm of the belief that any ACC win is really a great win). I'm saying that a win against Syracuse (although a road win would be great) or at home against Clemson is not something that I see the committee looking back on and saying "Well it's close, but Wake did have a win over ______ so they're in."

There may also be a disconnect between my definition of "we have a shot at winning" and your apparent (and technically correct) view that we play each of these games, so we might win. I'm just trying to be realistic and thinking that Duke at home (and if they're ranked, VT) are the two that I think we have a good chance to win. Someone can throw up the latest KP win chances if they have them; maybe I'm wrong and we have good chances @ND or @Duke. Like I said, I think vs. Louisville may be in the winnable zone too (but not sure).
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Yes, it accounts for where the game is played and whether or not the team is a top 50 team in his rankings or not.

If we are just looking at the "big name" (sans statistical evaluation) wins then we have two chances this week: @Syracuse and Duke. Those are both "eye-openers" to somebody if they saw the score on the bottom line.

Our odds for the remaining games:

@Cuse 49%
Duke 44%
@BC 78%
GT 84%
@Notre Dame 24%
State 82%
@Clemson 37%
@Duke 21%
Pitt 77%
Louisville 37%
@VPI 44%

Total: 5.77 more wins (so 8.77 in total, rounding up to a 9-9 projected ACC record)
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Total: 5.77 more wins (so 8.77 in total, rounding up to a 9-9 projected ACC record)
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Actually, with 11 games remaining, I think it is 5.24 wins, which is closer to 8-10. That said, it is also skewed by the fact our projected "wins" are in the high 70s and 80s - the interesting ones are obviously the Cuse, VT and Duke (home) that Wake is a dog, but much closer to a toss-up...
 
Deacsfan27 said:
@Cuse 49%
Duke 44%
@BC 78%
GT 84%
@Notre Dame 24%
State 82%
@Clemson 37%
@Duke 21%
Pitt 77%
Louisville 37%
@VPI 44%
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That more or less aligns with my thinking. Not sure I agree with your take on Cuse...to a more casual fan yes but to one who at least is following basketball this year I'm not sure it counts as an eye-opener. Again, it would be a great win and I'd be ecstatic to get a 3 game winning streak and 2 on the road in the ACC. Just trying to think from the POV of someone who is not a Wake fan but is reasonably up on current college hoops and whether the win would stand out to them at this point in the year. Cuse is 11-9 and 57 in KP (just behind Chattanooga).

Basically I'm looking for wins over top 25 teams. Not as my personal metric of success, but as something that stands out to an outside observer. And I think we can have a successful season without any, but IMO having one gives an outsized bonus when it comes to postseason consideration.
 
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WPDeac said:
Actually, with 11 games remaining, I think it is 5.24 wins, which is closer to 8-10. That said, it is also skewed by the fact our projected "wins" are in the high 70s and 80s - the interesting ones are obviously the Cuse, VT and Duke (home) that Wake is a dog, but much closer to a toss-up...
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Based on the KP numbers that I listed out we are expected to go 5.77-5.23. That makes our projected record 8.77-9.23, which rounds up to 9-9.

I don't really understand what you mean by "it's skewed".

His projections work well because it doesn't assign 0 (for a loss) or 1 (for a win), but rather the percentages of each happening.

Perhaps I'm missing what you are saying though?
 
SpringChicken said:
That more or less aligns with my thinking. Not sure I agree with your take on Cuse...to a more casual fan yes but to one who at least is following basketball this year I'm not sure it counts as an eye-opener. Again, it would be a great win and I'd be ecstatic to get a 3 game winning streak and 2 on the road in the ACC. Just trying to think from the POV of someone who is not a Wake fan but is reasonably up on current college hoops and whether the win would stand out to them at this point in the year. Cuse is 11-9 and 57 in KP (just behind Chattanooga).
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Yeah, I definitely get what you are saying. I'm not really sure what the perception of Cuse is nationally, but they did make the Final Four last year, so beating them on the road would likely be considered a success by "casual" observers. Regardless, it would be a nice win under our belt!
 
Where is the stat that shows when you're up 8 points on the road with 7-8 minutes left with your best player still on the bench, what are the odds of winning that game? Also, what are the odds of losing around 20 conference games when either you have a 3-4 point lead or are down by 3-4 points in the last 2 minutes? I don't claim to be a master statistician, but in the latter scenario, I would guess a teams winning percentage should be roughly .500.

Anyway, sarcasm aside, when are people going to wake up and realize winning close games down the stretch isn't one of Manning's strength. First, it was we had to clean out Bz's players in Year 1. Last season still needed more of Manning's "players", didn't have any 3 point shooters, and we were too young. The talent is here this season, they aren't freshmen anymore, but same result as in Year 1.

Keep using your stats to predict 5.77 more wins this season, and finish 9-9. IMO, we will win 2, at best 3 more games this season and finish 5-13 or 6-12. Im gonna use what my eyes and gut tell me mixed with DM's past performance as a head coach.

When its Year 4 and we continue to lose games like tonight keep using your stats to comfort you as we continue to stay home during March.
 
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Small thing but it bugged me he prematurely inserted Horn in on Dino's second free throw. It was a long miss and a capable rebounder in low block would have had it. I know he did it to help foul but it ended up being a little too cute
 
#hottakes

But really I was on the verge of posting about how proud I was of our fan base for not bumping the DMCW thread after a tough loss on the road to a good team, but bamadeac has to go and ruin it. #misseditbythatmuch


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Fuck Your Couch said:
There were a lot of posts like "Danny is clearly the worst coach in the ACC" in the group B section a week ago
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That's different than wanting him fired. The ACC is stacked with great coaches.
 
BamaDeac said:
Where is the stat that shows when you're up 8 points on the road with 7-8 minutes left with your best player still on the bench, what are the odds of winning that game? Also, what are the odds of losing around 20 conference games when either you have a 3-4 point lead or are down by 3-4 points in the last 2 minutes? I don't claim to be a master statistician, but in the latter scenario, I would guess a teams winning percentage should be roughly .500.

Anyway, sarcasm aside, when are people going to wake up and realize winning close games down the stretch isn't one of Manning's strength. First, it was we had to clean out Bz's players in Year 1. Last season still needed more of Manning's "players", didn't have any 3 point shooters, and we were too young. The talent is here this season, they aren't freshmen anymore, but same result as in Year 1.

Keep using your stats to predict 5.77 more wins this season, and finish 9-9. IMO, we will win 2, at best 3 more games this season and finish 5-13 or 6-12. Im gonna use what my eyes and gut tell me mixed with DM's past performance as a head coach.

When its Year 4 and we continue to lose games like tonight keep using your stats to comfort you as we continue to stay home during March.
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For the record, I wouldn't have to post so much on these threads if idiots like this guy would just let them die.

We didn't lose tonight because Manning isn't the casual wake fans wet dream of a master end game tactician. We lost because our defense sucks (and because Crawford was robbed of a third free throw).

You know what would help us win all of these close road games? Being better. This team has improved under Manning and there is no reason to suspect that improvement won't continue next year. If we lose the next three by all means bring this thread back up, until then give it a fucking rest.
 
Henry Chinaski said:
Small thing but it bugged me he prematurely inserted Horn in on Dino's second free throw. It was a long miss and a capable rebounder in low block would have had it. I know he did it to help foul but it ended up being a little too cute
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Agreed. Arians would have even been better there.
 
Because our D is not good. Not having a 6'5-6'8 wing who is quick and can play has been our downfall all season. You can't expect Wilbekin, Woods or Arians to cover a 6'5 and over wing.

Also, as was discussed multiple times, you need that 6'6+ guy to play at the FT line against the Cuse zone. Without that guy, moving the zone is much m ore difficult.
 
RJKarl said:
Because our D is not good. Not having a 6'5-6'8 wing who is quick and can play has been our downfall all season. You can't expect Wilbekin, Woods or Arians to cover a 6'5 and over wing.

Also, as was discussed multiple times, you need that 6'6+ guy to play at the FT line against the Cuse zone. Without that guy, moving the zone is much m ore difficult.
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I'd only we had a 6'6 lock down defender who is also a quality shooter and passer. Manning should get on that.
 
Sometimes I do wonder if Danny's lack of intensity rubs off on the team. I don't care about people jumping around showing emotion and yelling. But I think there's a case that emotional intensity could have some effect on defensive intensity as well.

I don't want a bunch of Devin Thomas types out there losing their shit, and maybe I'm dumb to think there's any sort of correlation, but it's something I've wondered this year. We continue to fail on defense in key situations, and have trouble stemming offensive runs as well.
 
RChildress107 said:
I'd only we had a 6'6 lock down defender who is also a quality shooter and passer. Manning should get on that.
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Snarkyass, I didn't say lock down defender, but don't let that get in the way of you misrepresenting what I said.

BTW, we have a guy like I described coming in next year.
 
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