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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

So this probably belongs on the recruiting thread but I’ll put it here for now. I’ve looked at Manning’s recruiting from the front end (based on rankings) and how he stacks up to past Wake coaches, but after recent discussion I thought I’d look at it from the back end (based on how players actually turned out) as well.

I looked at the Win Shares produced at Wake Forest for every recruited player (including transfers) that entered the program in 2002 or later (Prosser’s first full class). I’m not a big fan of win shares but it’s the best easily accessible stat I had to go on.

For each of our last 4 coaches I’ve listed the total WS produced at Wake by that coaches recruits, the total number of recruits, the total # of seasons those recruits played, and the average WS produced per season played.

Skip: (includes AT&T)

Total WS: 126.9
Players: 26
Seasons: 74
Avg/season: 1.71

Dino:

Total: 26.4
Players: 9
Seasons: 19
Avg: 1.39

[Redacted]:

Total: 24.2
Players: 13
Seasons: 31
Avg: .74

Manning:

Total: 45.5
Players: 17
Seasons: 32
Avg:1.42

Manning (completed classes only):

Total: 38.9
Players: 8
Seasons: 20
Avg: 1.95
 
RChildress107 said:
So this probably belongs on the recruiting thread but I’ll put it here for now. I’ve looked at Manning’s recruiting from the front end (based on rankings) and how he stacks up to past Wake coaches, but after recent discussion I thought I’d look at it from the back end (based on how players actually turned out) as well.

I looked at the Win Shares produced at Wake Forest for every recruited player (including transfers) that entered the program in 2002 or later (Prosser’s first full class). I’m not a big fan of win shares but it’s the best easily accessible stat I had to go on.

For each of our last 4 coaches I’ve listed the total WS produced at Wake by that coaches recruits, the total number of recruits, the total # of seasons those recruits played, and the average WS produced per season played.

Skip: (includes AT&T)

Total WS: 126.9
Players: 26
Seasons: 74
Avg/season: 1.71

Dino:

Total: 26.4
Players: 9
Seasons: 19
Avg: 1.39

[Redacted]:

Total: 24.2
Players: 13
Seasons: 31
Avg: .74

Manning:

Total: 45.5
Players: 17
Seasons: 32
Avg:1.42

Manning (completed classes only):

Total: 38.9
Players: 8
Seasons: 20
Avg: 1.95
Click to expand...

Or you could just look at the coach's win/loss records. Seems a way easier and more direct way to measure a coach's ability. And if you want to measure a coach's recruiting ability you could look at class rankings for each recruiting cycle. If you really want to get fancy you can take class rankings and win-loss record and create a table measuring if the team's underperformed or overperformed their recruiting rankings.
 
Gary Clark, Jamie Skeen, and Harvey Hale contributed 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 WS for their careers. 3.0 appears to be a nice cutoff to not be declared a bust.

Danny has had 6 recruits with > 3 career WS and Brandon will almost surely surpass that (I’d bet on Chaundee and Sarr but it’s too soon to tell). That’s a 75% hit rate in his first two classes and a likely 53% overall through 4

[Redacted] had 3 (Devin, CMM, and Coron) for a 22% hit rate.

Dino had 2 (though they were each >10) for a 23% hit rate.

Skip had 15 for a 58% hit rate.
 
netflixnchildres said:
Or you could just look at the coach's win/loss records. Seems a way easier and more direct way to measure a coach's ability. And if you want to measure a coach's recruiting ability you could look at class rankings for each recruiting cycle. If you really want to get fancy you can take class rankings and win-loss record and create a table measuring if the team's underperformed or overperformed their recruiting rankings.
Click to expand...

I’ve already done both, just with a better indicator than w/l record.

Thought I’d look at it from a different angle. I submit it without comment (for now).
 
This is an impressively deceptive stat that wellman will trot out to the blue hairs this season. Thanks.
 
So you didn't at all take into account who was coaching those recruits?
 
Ayo said:
So you didn't at all take into account who was coaching those recruits?
Click to expand...

No. Couldn’t think of an easy way to do it. I understand that could deflate (or inflate) recruits at the tail end of a coach’s tenure. That probably hurts Dino the most in this sample, but who knows.
 
RChildress107 said:
No. Couldn’t think of an easy way to do it. I understand that could deflate (or inflate) recruits at the tail end of a coach’s tenure. That probably hurts Dino the most in this sample, but who knows.
Click to expand...

I think we do know.
 
RacerDeac said:
Manning is just such a nice guy.
Click to expand...

I think justification is two parts, Manning isn't an asshole like Buzz, and Buzz killed all the cares the fanbase had so nobody is around anymore to give fucks but the sunshine brigade.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
I think justification is two parts, Manning isn't an asshole like Buzz, and Buzz killed all the cares the fanbase had so nobody is around anymore to give fucks but the sunshine brigade.
Click to expand...

This is correct. You could also add that there’s little confidence Wellman and the brass could hire a good coach.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
I think justification is two parts, Manning isn't an asshole like Buzz, and Buzz killed all the cares the fanbase had so nobody is around anymore to give fucks but the sunshine brigade.
Click to expand...

I don’t think we have any idea what Wellman’s standard for keeping Manning past this year is. But assuming the pundits are correct and .500 or better will save Manning’s job then the “justification” for treating Manning differently than [Redacted] (who got fired after an above .500 season is some combination of the following (in order of importance):

1. Manning’s record. I imagine that in the eyes of the decision makers, and of neutral observers, a tourney appearance and greater success on the recruiting trail have bought Manning a year more than [Redacted] got.

2. There is less pressure from fans, partly because of apathy and partly because of #1, to make a change.

3. Manning’s not a dick


It’s shitty logic based on an arbitrary number on an unreliable metric, but I’d guess that’s the argument for Manning staying if he goes 17-15 but ends up outside the top 100 in Kenpom.
 
.
3 - I have been railing on this one for at least a couple of years now. The whiff on that class left a huge hole in the roster. At least the roster of guys that were ready to play. That got magnified when Collins and Dinos left. A good wing and PF in that class would have been huge.
4 - Though I don't know that I would just say "in game" coaching. Out of game coaching seemed to be an issue last season as well.
2. - I guess Dinos in combination with Collins leaving was pretty big - I just know that we would have been that much better last season with Dinos.

Personally, I think the first two were much more impactful that the last two. Of course, Manning and staff were responsible for that recruiting whiff.[/QUOTE]

Bubble Boy said:
That's stupid. So if Lebron blows out his knee in the first game and the Lakers end up sucking, no Lebron can't be the reason the Lakers suck?
Click to expand...

Completely agree but wanted to move the conversation over here.
 
And the thing is, y’all agree with me but can’t admit that you are wrong.

Rank the following but-for causes for why we sucked last year:

1. John Collins left early
2. Dinos left early
3. Manning struck out on the 2016 class
4. Manning’s a horrible in game coach

And then answer the following questions:

1. Where does last year’s team finish if JC had stayed?

2. Where does last year’s team finish if Dinos has stayed?

3. Where does last year’s team finish with two solid top 100 sophomores?

4. Where does last year’s roster finish with Skip Prosser or Dave Odom as head coach?
 
RChildress107 said:
And the thing is, y’all agree with me but can’t admit that you are wrong.

Rank the following but-for causes for why we sucked last year:

1. John Collins left early
2. Dinos left early
3. Manning struck out on the 2016 class
4. Manning’s a horrible in game coach
Click to expand...

PhDeac said:
4

Otherwise you're blaming people who weren't on the team for why a team was bad.
Click to expand...

RChildress107 said:
Manning is ultimately responsible for all 4 of those. He gets blamed for all of them. I’ve said that for over a year. Want to change your answer? If not, care to answer the next post?
Click to expand...

Yeah, that’s what I thought. I look forward to doing this again in three weeks.
 
knowell said:
1) Where would Wake have finished with the addition of a near all-star NBA player? Probably makes the tournament as a lower seed and loses out quickly due to lack of defense.

2) Where would Wake finish with Dinos? No post season. Outside chance at NIT.

3) The addition of 2 solid sophomores would likely have propelled that team to .500 or so. Unless those guys could teach defense as well as coach it, not a great deal more wins but probably avoid the embarrassing losses.

4) Skip would have avoided the embarrassing losses and would have had nice team chemistry, but we know his lack of defense takes a lot of offensive talent to overcome. Likely just misses out on NIT.

Dave Odom, on the other hand probably adds to his collection of NIT trophies. Keeps the team in consideration for the bubble for a pretty good while before settling for the NIT.
Click to expand...

RChildress107 said:
So I’ll put you down for

1
4
2
3

What do you mean by lower seed?

John Collins was a better player in his first year in the league than he was his sophomore year. Presumably he would have been a NPOY candidate. His team was an 11 seed the year before and was ranked higher than that in most ranking systems. The only players lost from that team in this scenario we’re two stretch 4s that were, in your opinion, awful and way worse than awful on D.

So with JC back we have a more experienced team with a NPOY candidate and improve on D simply by getting rid of two of our worst defensive players.

IMO, expecting a jump from the 36-43 range to the 26-33 (7-9 seed) range feels conservative.
Click to expand...

Think that pretty much catches us up. I’ll patiently await Racer, Ph, and others to join in.
 
Go ahead and move my latest response over here.
 
Lebron’s on the team this year. Collins, Dinos, and 2016 recruits who didn’t sign weren’t on the team. RC’s arguments are like saying no Lebron is why the Lakers sucked last year.[/QUOTE]

No it’s like saying Lebron leaving is why the Cavs will suck next year. It’s not blaming Lebron, it’s just a statement of fact.

Manning’s not on the team either, fwiw.
 
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