Danny Manning Credibility Watch

[Deacsfan27]

Which shows why they are glorified guesses. Getting to 7 ACC wins was almost a pipe dream before the season and is basically the same today.

Nobody said they weren't guesses. They are statistical projections, which, usually fall under the definition of guesses/estimations/etc.

I would be interested to see your W/L breakdown looking at the schedule though. You can either do wins or losses, or apply percentages to each game. He doesn't deal in solid wins and losses, but rather percentages to win each game. That's a better way to do it.

To me, "pipe dream" would mean that we are expected to only win 3-4. If you think we can win 5-6 based on the schedule, then getting to 7 isn't that farfetched at all if a couple of things went our way in close games.

 

[daaberry]

Which shows why they are glorified guesses. Getting to 7 ACC wins was almost a pipe dream before the season and is basically the same today.

That is just way off base. Wake has lost 7 times with the "worst" team currently being rated as the 33rd best team in the country. Is it that crazy that they are going to beat NC St once, Pitt, G Tech, & BC? That gets you to 5 wins. Beating Miami should happen which takes you to 6. NC St is in a downward spiral (esp w/ a loss today) which could make it 7. That would be accomplished w/o really doing anything special at all.

 

[RJKarl]

I thought 5 was the sweet spot. I figured we'd only be favored in about thee ACC games this year based on talent, but could pick off a couple of others if things went our way.

This year's ACC is deeper than it ever has been. Although we are improved, we are still one to two players from being close to being a .500 team in this year's ACC.

If State had a coach, we couldn't touch them.

 

[Deacsfan27]

I thought 5 was the sweet spot. I figured we'd only be favored in about thee ACC games this year based on talent, but could pick off a couple of others if things went our way.

This year's ACC is deeper than it ever has been. Although we are improved, we are still one to two players from being close to being a .500 team in this year's ACC.

If State had a coach, we couldn't touch them.

Look at the schedule we have and tell me the games that you think we will/won't be favored in by Vegas.

 

[PhDeac]

He expects us to go 16-14, 7-11. If we win tomorrow night that will become 17-13, 8-10.

That's not really "expecting" us to make the tournament, but we are certainly on the bubble right now by any projected statistical metric.

If we wound up going 17-13, 8-10, and then won a game or two in the ACCT then I would put us at a very likely team to make the NCAAT with what will be a top 10 schedule in the country.

It's time to win some games though.

So we need to win games we are expected to win and some games we aren't expected to win in order to make the tournament.

 

[Deacsfan27]

So we need to win games we are expected to win and some games we aren't expected to win in order to make the tournament.

KenPom has us projected to win 7 games (7.41 wins to be exact, as we have 1 win already, and a projected 6.41-6.59 record in the final 13 games) in the ACC right now. We need to get to 8 wins, no matter how we do it.

He has us over 50% in 6 games right now, and up to this point, he has predicted every game correctly (every game he has us over 50% we have won, every game he has us below we have lost).

If we beat Miami tomorrow then we "pick up" the 44% that is up for grabs (since we have a 56% win chance), and we would be at 8 expected wins for conference play. Depending on how we win the game, it's possible we could also turn the Cuse game into a toss-up from the 42% we are at now.

We need to win one more game than KP expects us to in order to get to 8-10. If we just beat "B tier" and "Other Tier" teams, then we need to win one "A-Tier" game to get to 7.

 

[Deacsfan27]

If my quick math is right, if we were charting the percentage likelihood of each ACC win total at this point, then we would be slightly more likely to win 8 games in conference than 6, and slightly more likely to win 9 games than 5.

 

[deacvision7]

If my quick math is right, if we were charting the percentage likelihood of each ACC win total at this point, then we would be slightly more likely to win 8 games in conference than 6, and slightly more likely to win 9 games than 5.

WE'RE GOING DANCING!!!11!

 

[Deacsfan27]

WE'RE GOING DANCING!!!11!

That's not what I said at all.

We need to win some games over these next 6.

 

[deacvision7]

That's not what I said at all.

We need to win some games over these next 6.

nope. DANCING QUEENZZZ

 

[PhDeac]

I guarantee WE'RE GOING DANCING!!!11!

Fixed.

 

[deacvision7]

Confirmed ! Happy !

 

[RJKarl]

Look at the schedule we have and tell me the games that you think we will/won't be favored in by Vegas.

I think we'll be favored against GT and BC. Maybe State at home.

 

[Deacsfan27]

I think we'll be favored against GT and BC. Maybe State at home.

What about Pitt and Miami here?

 

[RJKarl]

Maybe...If we are it will be very slightly.

The problem with Pitt is we have no one to cover Artis and if we put JC on Young, it could easily lead to foul trouble.

 

[daaberry]

What about Pitt and Miami here?

Wake will be small faves tomorrow (around 2 pts). If the game were today vs Pitt, Wake would be favored by around 6-7 pts. Wake will be 6-8 pts faves vs NC St at the Joel.

 

[deacz]

The only certain losses remaining on our schedule are @ND and @Duke. The remainder are games we can compete in. If this team gains some confidence in late game situations, the season is not all lost.

Then again, the way we have finished games, we could totally end up with 3 ACC wins.

 

[Deacsfan27]

The only certain losses remaining on our schedule are @ND and @Duke. The remainder are games we can compete in. If this team gains some confidence in late game situations, the season is not all lost.

Then again, the way we have finished games, we could totally end up with 3 ACC wins.

and even those are 17% and 24% chances. 1/6 and 1/4. Unlikely, but also not certain losses either.

We have the same chance to beat Duke at Cameron as GT does to beat us here.

 

[Renfield]

and even those are 17% and 24% chances. 1/6 and 1/4. Unlikely, but also not certain losses either.

We have the same chance to beat Duke at Cameron as GT does to beat us here.

One of those will happen, the other will not.

 

[Pilchard]

I think we'll be favored against GT and BC. Maybe State at home.

The line tomorrow will be around a pick.

This weekend's game at State will also be close to a pick.

WF will be less than a 5 point dog at Cuse, at home against Duke, home against L'ville and at VT. If you want to claim that WF can't match up with those teams bet a s-load against WF because those lines will be low.

WF will be favored by 5+ at BC and home against GT, State and Pitt.

The only games the rest of the way that WF will be more than a 5 point dog are at ND and at Duke.

You can try to play down expectations to shield Manning, but every game the rest of the way (with the possible exceptions of the games at Cameron and South Bend) is winnable. If WF wins 5 or less ACC games (meaning WF goes 4-9 or worse the rest of the way), the problem is not with the quality of the ACC, but a staff and team that doesn't know how to win its fair share of winnable games.