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Danny Manning replacement search thread

RJKarl said:
Hmm..I note you didn't "file away" the way you addressed my saying the "buyout" wasn't an issue for getting rid of Danny this year (or really last) and that Danny was gone.

You want to play gotcha but not give any credit.

How very telling.
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What do you want credit for? We had zero credible information on the buyout before. We have zero credible information now. In fact, we'll probably never know what it was... Or how much it played into keeping Manning around last year.

You and I have discussed this before... I don't think we're really far apart on this one. I thought the buyout, as Goodman reported it last year, was ridiculous and not possibly true. I've come around to believing that it was definitely a factor in keeping Manning around after last year. I don't know how much of an issue it is this year... But I think Currie, as a new AD, is better positioned to scrape the money together to move on (from Wellman's mistake).
 
If your coach is fired, none of his staff is retained, + your team leader is gone (who's dad would no longer be with the team) I have a hard time believing a lot of people will choose to stay.
 
DeacsATS said:
Yup.

Most is more than half. Seems like a lot, but who knows.
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depends on how we count them - we have 12 scholarship players, and 3 of them (Childress, White, Johnson) are definitely leaving, unless Johnson somehow gets approval for a 7th year (insert Belushi gif)

lack of transfers last offseason was not at all surprising to me - several players tweeted out a version of "Hell Yeah" when Manning was retained
 
DeacsATS said:
Wasn't calling you out. I liked that you took a position on future transfers. Feel free to post some of my predictions from the past... There are a ton of them that didn't work out. In this case, I think we'll have at least 3 transfers/early departures with a coaching change... Regardless of whom is hired.

IIRC, your take on the buyout was that it wasn't as bad as reported... We have no evidence either way. I think most posters just think that things are so bad that the buyout doesn't matter as much as it did last year (because, in part, it is one year less onerous).
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I don't think some of the bench players will be back regardless. Next year's Top 7/8 would be a different story.

Let's assume the "buyout" is as onerous as some say. Don't you think the financial powers that be would understand that firing Danny last year would be, at very worst, marginally more expensive than it will be this year due to the massive in revenues of Danny here this year versus the excitement of a new coach for 19-20?

Think about it, if we only gained 2500 more ticket sales, at $60/person for tickets/parking/concessions, etc., we would realize about $2.1M for 14 home games. Plus, we'd be in a better place to move forward and should propel next year's revenues higher. The amount we'd "save" by keeping Danny for this year is negligible even if the "buyout" number from last year is real.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
If your coach is fired, none of his staff is retained, + your team leader is gone (who's dad would no longer be with the team) I have a hard time believing a lot of people will choose to stay.
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What if you get a big name, successful coach to replace your failed coach? What if you see with a new coach your team will be good next year? What about sitting out?
 
birdman said:
If Currie is worth his own salary he should have already raised the money. There is no way sh should have waited until March 1st to figure out if he can afford to fire manning and hire someone new.
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The problem is the people with the money seem to be fine with the status quo.
 
RJKarl said:
Let's assume the "buyout" is as onerous as some say. Don't you think the financial powers that be would understand that firing Danny last year would be, at very worst, marginally more expensive than it will be this year due to the massive in revenues of Danny here this year versus the excitement of a new coach for 19-20?

Think about it, if we only gained 2500 more ticket sales, at $60/person for tickets/parking/concessions, etc., we would realize about $2.1M for 14 home games. Plus, we'd be in a better place to move forward and should propel next year's revenues higher. The amount we'd "save" by keeping Danny for this year is negligible even if the "buyout" number from last year is real.
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I just don't think everyone (at least everyone that matters) looks at it that way.

I don't really know how these things work, but I'd assume the AD has to pass around the hat to the big donors... That hat either comes back with enough for the buyout (and new coach) or it doesn't. It only takes a couple of holdouts that think maybe Manning can turn it around with another year for the buyout to fall apart.

Every year that goes by, that number comes down. And every year that goes by, we have more evidence that Manning won't be successful at Wake Forest.

So this year seems more likely than last year. That's how I view it and that's what I hope.
 
RJKarl said:
What if you get a big name, successful coach to replace your failed coach? What if you see with a new coach your team will be good next year? What about sitting out?
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I could definitely be wrong, but my thought process tells me this isn't likely for a few reasons:

1. If Sarr and Chaundee can grad transfer, the biggest reason they'd stay is if they think they have a shot at success next year - which is dependent on a variety of things. They'd have a better chance of going elsewhere and having a good last season similar to Keyshawn.
2. Transfer rates are high anyway. Losing a head coach should only make that number go up.
3. Your statement also assumes the big name head coach wants everyone to stay/they fit into his coaching style.
4. These kids came to play for Danny/his staff and clearly like them. They are also 18-22 years old.

Again, I could end up being wrong and I hope we keep Chaundee, Sarr, Mucius, Massoud, Neath - but I'm definitely not counting on it.
 
The cornerstone of that is the "buyout" is as onerous as some think. If it isn't, that entire house of cards collapses.

I've got a question for you. If you would be Ron Wellman and about to leave, would you want the last event in your Wake career be having your last basketball hire (whom you extended) be fired within days of your leaving? Could you possibly think that rather than "retiring" many Deacs and others would tie your leaving to Danny's and be remembered as you being fired rather than retiring?

Having an ego like Wellman's (which I think you and I and most of the board agree exists), do you think he'd like that take that chance? Do you think he'd like many think he was actually fired or his contract not being renewed rather than him generously stepping down to let a Wake guy take his place?

P.S. I'm not trying to insult you by saying you could be Ron Wellman. It's play acting. :)
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
If your coach is fired, none of his staff is retained, + your team leader is gone (who's dad would no longer be with the team) I have a hard time believing a lot of people will choose to stay.
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Brandon Childress is a senior, who will graduate from Wake and will have used all his eligibility. He will gone for 2020 - 2021 season regardless of who is coaching at Wake.
 
Deaconblue said:
Brandon Childress is a senior, who will graduate from Wake and will have used all his eligibility. He will gone for 2020 - 2021 season regardless of who is coaching at Wake.
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Correct. All I said is that he's gone.
 
Sirdeacsalot said:
Why?
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CharlotteDeac1 said:
I could definitely be wrong, but my thought process tells me this isn't likely for a few reasons:

1. If Sarr and Chaundee can grad transfer, the biggest reason they'd stay is if they think they have a shot at success next year - which is dependent on a variety of things. They'd have a better chance of going elsewhere and having a good last season similar to Keyshawn.
2. Transfer rates are high anyway. Losing a head coach should only make that number go up.
3. Your statement also assumes the big name head coach wants everyone to stay/they fit into his coaching style.
4. These kids came to play for Danny/his staff and clearly like them. They are also 18-22 years old.

Again, I could end up being wrong and I hope we keep Chaundee, Sarr, Mucius, Massoud, Neath - but I'm definitely not counting on it.
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My reasoning above.

Racer's reason being my third reason.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I could definitely be wrong, but my thought process tells me this isn't likely for a few reasons:

1. If Sarr and Chaundee can grad transfer, the biggest reason they'd stay is if they think they have a shot at success next year - which is dependent on a variety of things. They'd have a better chance of going elsewhere and having a good last season similar to Keyshawn.
2. Transfer rates are high anyway. Losing a head coach should only make that number go up.
3. Your statement also assumes the big name head coach wants everyone to stay/they fit into his coaching style.
4. These kids came to play for Danny/his staff and clearly like them. They are also 18-22 years old.

Again, I could end up being wrong and I hope we keep Chaundee, Sarr, Mucius, Massoud, Neath - but I'm definitely not counting on it.
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There's no evidence #1 is an option.

#2 assumes we replace a failed coach with another marginal coach.

Any good coach would want a solid core to stay. We have a solid core for #3. If by some chance we get Beilein, Massoud and Sarr fit perfectly as does Mucius. Chaundee fits with any good coach.

#4- do they love losing? If we get a successful coach, they'd likely stay. Plus, you are assuming they don't like Wake or don't have a lot of friends here.

Just because Windy showed up last week doesn't mean you have to pay an homage to him. :)
 
RacerDeac said:
What leverage would Currie have to renegotiate?
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Assuming we would have to continue paying Manning monthly for the length of the contract, Mr. Currie can negotiate an accelerated payment schedule or lump sum payment for a reduced obligation. If the Democrats win big in November Mannings income in future years will be taxed at much higher rates, so there is an opportunity for Manning to save $$ by taking a reduced lump sum in 2020.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
Correct. All I said is that he's gone.
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By tying Brandon's status for next year to the coaching staff, there is an incorrect implication that the coaching staff has some influence on Brandon's status, when it doesn't.

Brandon, like the best three point shooter on the team, Andrien White and team Methuselah Torry Johnson, will all use up their eligibility at the end of this season and presumably graduate from Wake.

Like many teams, Wake will need to find new player leadership for 2020-2021.
 
RJKarl said:
There's no evidence #1 is an option.

#2 assumes we replace a failed coach with another marginal coach.

Any good coach would want a solid core to stay. We have a solid core for #3. If by some chance we get Beilein, Massoud and Sarr fit perfectly as does Mucius. Chaundee fits with any good coach.

#4- do they love losing? If we get a successful coach, they'd likely stay. Plus, you are assuming they don't like Wake or don't have a lot of friends here.

Just because Windy showed up last week doesn't mean you have to pay an homage to him. :)
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-That's why there is an if with #1.

-Is there any evidence of your POV of #2? ATS just mentioned one example of players leaving regardless of coach quality in Pitt/Capel. I tried but can't find any data supporting one side or the other.

-We could have a solid core. If 1-2 or more of the four you mentioned decide to leave, that's no longer a core of players. Plus, with the number of current transfers a great head coach could find a core for himself.

-As for 4 - if they hate losing, which they probably do, the only reason they stayed this long is because they must like the coaching staff and guys they played with. If one or both of those are gone, chances of players leaving increases.

Overall, I think with the general current levels of roster turnover in CBB that assuming guys will stay during a coaching change is wishful thinking. That's all.
 
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