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Game Thread: ODU 12:00 noon 9/16 ESPN2

Wake D-line should be able to get pressure on ODU QB without bringing extra guys. VT did. He will have a rough day. However, I think he breaks contain a few times for big plays. I also think ODU receivers beat 1 on 1 coverage a few times.

However, I think Wake O will have its way. Only stopping itself by turnovers and/or penalties.
 
Food for thought, here are the post-game win expectancies for the first two games respectively for ODU and Wake with "adjusted margin" (what the score "should" have been if played out as it went down infinite times):

ODU:

VT - 16.3% to win; Lost 36-19; Adjusted Margin: Lose by 9.8
Louisiana - 86.5% to win; Won 38-31; Adjusted Margin: Win by 14.4

Wake:

Elon - 100% to win; Won 37-17; Adjusted Margin: Win by 32
Vanderbilt - 57.6% to win; Won 36-20; Adjusted Margin: Win by 3.4
 
Food for thought, here are the post-game win expectancies for the first two games respectively for ODU and Wake with "adjusted margin" (what the score "should" have been if played out as it went down infinite times):

ODU:

VT - 16.3% to win; Lost 36-19; Adjusted Margin: Lose by 9.8
Louisiana - 86.5% to win; Won 38-31; Adjusted Margin: Win by 14.4

Wake:

Elon - 100% to win; Won 37-17; Adjusted Margin: Win by 32
Vanderbilt - 57.6% to win; Won 36-20; Adjusted Margin: Win by 3.4
That VT win percentage is interesting.

I don't know what model this is, wondering if they are considering "luck" involved with turnovers.

Maybe the position on the field where the turnovers happened were particularly advantageous for the VT offense? Three of the ODU turnovers (including turnover-on-downs) was in their own territory, including an INT that was return within their own 10-yard line.

ODU's offensive points-per-opportunity is greater than 5, which puts them with teams like FSU, Alabama, Georgia. It is +1.3 compared to Wake. But their defensive points-per-opportunity is almost exactly the same as Wake (4.) So turnovers have really hurt them. And I would expect them to have a few against Wake. If they don't we may have a problem.
 
Wake should name their score on ODU's defense and we'll more than likely see some actual slow mesh because of how much ODU puts on their linebackers

I know people have their reservations on Wake's corners... but it's going to be hard to be as bad as Louisiana's are. If Wake tries to run a heavy zone look against ODU I might just start walking home.

A thing I'm curious about is how much input Glenn Spencer had this week in terms of the gameplan. Coached as a DC against this archetype of offense from 2011-2015. Up and down there holding them to 24 and 17 in 2 wins but giving up 41, 28, and 45 in 3 losses. Not exactly an apples to oranges thing here of "well he was successful/unsuccessful against it" given that's playing a team with a similar talent pool while now having a significant talent advantage, but he might be the only person on the staff that's had really any experience against that Briles archetype? Lambert had the wild Music City bowl in 2021 but bowl games are always weird especially when missing a guy like Karlaftis
 
From Bill Connelly's writeup on ESPN (Wake is his first listed "Best Bet")
Wake Forest (-14) at Old Dominion (12 p.m., ESPN2). Despite injuries in the skill corps, quarterback Mitch Griffis and the Demon Deacons are averaging 36.5 points per game. ODU, meanwhile, has allowed 33.5 per game against Virginia Tech and Louisiana offenses that are worse than Wake's. ODU has picked up the tempo considerably this year, and maybe the Monarchs keep up for a while, but SP+ says Deacons by 21.8. I trust Wake, especially now that the line has inched to within two touchdowns.
 
Yes SP+ is higher on Wake than other models and to Pilchard's point, has ODU anchored still (as most teams) from last season's "returning value" and "transfers" but they are likely underrated. SP+ is one of the biggest spreads power rating wise here.
 
Does this strictly have to do with gambling or how we'll actually perform, because if the latter, what?

I trust Wake, especially now that the line has inched to within two touchdowns.
 
Does this strictly have to do with gambling or how we'll actually perform, because if the latter, what?
It has to do with gambling. Although the opening line a lot of folks are talking about was -17 on Circa (one of the first to put lines out) while almost every other book I saw opened at -13.5 or -14 for Wake.

Wake is currently a two touchdown favorite (-14)
 
If Wake tries to run a heavy zone look against ODU I might just start walking home.
I don't know if what we were doing against Vandy was "heavy zone" (felt like it at times given distance we were off and not moving too much on the outside receivers). But if it was...get ready to walk home
 
I don't know if what we were doing against Vandy was "heavy zone" (felt like it at times given distance we were off and not moving too much on the outside receivers). But if it was...get ready to walk home
Eh I think the two gameplans are different even if they might look somewhat similar by having 7-8 guys in coverage and not blitzing a ton. Dropping into heavy zone against Vandy is probably how most teams are going to play Swann. Drop eight, sit in a zone, and let him make the mistake. He eventually will and as long as you tackle well you'll come out pretty fine but you don't want that WR group testing you vertically. Keep the explosives at a minimum, wrap up, and play roulette when they get to short-yardage situations. You'll do that against QBs that are mistake prone or rely on the QB to have to make some difficult throws

You're not playing that game for the most part against this archetype. They go too fast and you'll get locked into a bad package for 5-6 yards until you decide to quit and call a timeout. If you give up inside releases they'll just take that over and over. Wilson is better than Swann at not throwing turnover-worthy passes, but he's just not a great passer like Hendon Hooker who was able to put it on a dime at Tennessee. It's hard to compare what Wake did/does against other teams because really no other team lines up like this, but outside of specific situations this feels like one where they try to test how much they trust their 3rd and 4th corners in man and adjust from there.
 
Eh I think the two gameplans are different even if they might look somewhat similar by having 7-8 guys in coverage and not blitzing a ton. Dropping into heavy zone against Vandy is probably how most teams are going to play Swann. Drop eight, sit in a zone, and let him make the mistake. He eventually will and as long as you tackle well you'll come out pretty fine but you don't want that WR group testing you vertically. Keep the explosives at a minimum, wrap up, and play roulette when they get to short-yardage situations. You'll do that against QBs that are mistake prone or rely on the QB to have to make some difficult throws

You're not playing that game for the most part against this archetype. They go too fast and you'll get locked into a bad package for 5-6 yards until you decide to quit and call a timeout. If you give up inside releases they'll just take that over and over. Wilson is better than Swann at not throwing turnover-worthy passes, but he's just not a great passer like Hendon Hooker who was able to put it on a dime at Tennessee. It's hard to compare what Wake did/does against other teams because really no other team lines up like this, but outside of specific situations this feels like one where they try to test how much they trust their 3rd and 4th corners in man and adjust from there.
Yeah, and the spacing ODU uses causes a lot of issues of you go zone - there's just too much to cover. Best case is to leave corners on an island and focus on getting to the quarterback. It forces you to commit to run or pass before the snap. If our 4 deep need extra help, it could be a long day. I have been pleasantly surprised by our coverage, so I feel optimistic about the game. Getting up a couple of scores early is key.
 
Yeah, and the spacing ODU uses causes a lot of issues of you go zone - there's just too much to cover. Best case is to leave corners on an island and focus on getting to the quarterback. It forces you to commit to run or pass before the snap. If our 4 deep need extra help, it could be a long day. I have been pleasantly surprised by our coverage, so I feel optimistic about the game. Getting up a couple of scores early is key.
I think the corners are improved

but with the nature of this offense you're just going to get beat deep a couple of times. Happens to everyone with this offense, especially given you can't really bring 6 rushers often
 
I'd love to see an early lead and then maintain a dominant ground attack the remainder of the game. Shorten it, get on the bus and go home 3-0. **

** Having said this, I'll most likely have broken a remote, taken the Lord's name in vain and started drinking at 2pm. I am a "seasoned" WFU sports fan.
 
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Well, actually...

It's over 4 hours... Soooo 🛫

The game or trip? TV promised shorter games and just simply filled the time with commercials. Those are Clawson's thoughts, not mine. See his presser this week.
 
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