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How Many Games Will The Wake Forest Demon Deacons Football Team Win This Season (2023) ?

How Many Games Will The Wake Forest Demon Deacons Football Team Win This Season (2023) ?

  • Total voters
    139
  • Poll closed .
Pilchard said:
I know that you cover Duke as well, and you didn't list the game at Duke as a "confidence" game for WF; so, fair to interpret that as thinking that Duke is pretty good this year? FWIW, their schedule is brutal too. WF and Duke are the only ACC teams to play Clemson, ND and FSU.
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I do, yes. I think the world of Mitch and have been singing his praises for a while; don't think I'm out of line giving Duke the edge at QB, though.

I look at Duke and think they could be better than a year ago without the record to show for it. The top-end talent is there, though, and depth is good at RB, WR, DT, CB.

But a Thursday night game and we'll have seen both of these teams play 8 games by then ... that's probably a toss-up. I have the VT and Syracuse games as more confident because Wake has better talent than both of them.
 
I ran through the SP+ preseason projections last week. I can't remember if I posted here or not but here are where the line would approximately be (accounting for 2.5 to 3 points for the home team) for each game:

Elon: No odds (Wake is -30 or so on Sagarin for tomorrow night)
-14.5 v. Vandy
-20.5 @ ODU
-14.5 v. Ga. Tech
+20 @ Clemson
-6 @ VT
+.5 v. Pitt
+10 v. FSU
+2 @ Duke
-.5 v. NCSU
+16 @ ND
+.5 @ Cuse

So breaking it into tiers:

Double Digit Favorites: Elon, Vandy, ODU, Tech (the first four games of the year)

Slight Favorite: Virginia Tech

Tossups: Pitt, Duke, State, Cuse

Double Digit Underdogs: Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame

If we go "as projected" for the double digit games, we need to win 2 of @VT, Pitt, @ Duke, State, @Cuse to hit bowl eligibility.

I think 6.5 from Vegas is on the money and I think we hit 7. Now as others have mentioned, if we don't start 4-0 all bets are off there
 
CONeill said:
I do, yes. I think the world of Mitch and have been singing his praises for a while; don't think I'm out of line giving Duke the edge at QB, though.

I look at Duke and think they could be better than a year ago without the record to show for it. The top-end talent is there, though, and depth is good at RB, WR, DT, CB.

But a Thursday night game and we'll have seen both of these teams play 8 games by then ... that's probably a toss-up. I have the VT and Syracuse games as more confident because Wake has better talent than both of them.
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Yeah Duke's schedule last year was particularly favorable. IIRC they only played one top 35 team. Per Sagarin, I believe they and Virginia Tech were the only P5 teams not to play a top 30 team. That's...sad
 
And yeah it's been discussed a lot, but getting rid of divisions was an absolute boon to the Atlantic teams that aren't Clemson and will have the Coastal teams playing a harder conference schedule. The breakdown in power between the two divisions over the last few years was rough.

The non Georgia Tech teams in the Coastal ended up playing Clemson like twice over the last seven years while Clemson was a national title/title contender. Time for Duke, UNC, Miami, Virginia Tech, Pitt and UVA to pay the damn piper.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
And yeah it's been discussed a lot, but getting rid of divisions was an absolute boon to the Atlantic teams that aren't Clemson and will have the Coastal teams playing a harder conference schedule. The breakdown in power between the two divisions over the last few years was rough.

The non Georgia Tech teams in the Coastal ended up playing Clemson like twice over the last seven years while Clemson was a national title/title contender. Time for Duke, UNC, Miami, Virginia Tech, Pitt and UVA to pay the damn piper.
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and I hope NC State is happy with losing us as a rival but gaining Clemson. bless their hearts.
 
ODU is bad bad (that's pretty much unanimous last place; there are 14 teams and they got 17 points):

2023 SUN BELT CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PRESEASON COACHES POLL
East Division
1. James Madison – 78 Points (4)
2. App State – 75 Points (4)
3. Coastal Carolina – 71 Points (3)
4. Marshall – 68 Points (2)
5. Georgia Southern – 52 Points (1)
6. Georgia State – 31 Points
7. Old Dominion – 17 Points
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Yeah Duke's schedule last year was particularly favorable. IIRC they only played one top 35 team. Per Sagarin, I believe they and Virginia Tech were the only P5 teams not to play a top 30 team. That's...sad
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The way I've been writing it -- Duke played all 5 ACC teams that didn't go to bowls last year and went 4-1; this year, 7 of 8 ACC games against teams in bowls last year and basically traded non-con games against Temple and Kansas for UConn and Notre Dame.

And I don't know if you've heard but ND has Joe Montana 2.0 this year, going to be rough for Duke on Sept. 30.

Every Coastal team was bound to pay dues in new scheduling model; Duke's bill just came up in Year 1 of it.

BarcaDeac said:
and I hope NC State is happy with losing us as a rival but gaining Clemson. bless their hearts.
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Couldn't help but chuckle at the story from the N&O that was just published.

"The ACC finally ditched divisions, which means the Wolfpack doesn’t have to finish ahead Clemson to get to Charlotte. Just everybody else."

I'm sure it's explained in the article ... but like, it's easier to finish in front of everybody else when you don't have Clemson on the schedule!
 
Regular season 7-5, think we go back to the Pinstripe Bowl and finish 8-5

Elon-W
Vandy-W
ODU-W
GT-W
Clem-L
VT-L
Pitt-W
FSU-L
Duke-W
NC State-L
Notre Dame-L
Syracuse-W
 
While I'm making lists, here's the preseason snapshot of where teams we play rank in Sagarin and SP+ just for general feel of how the schedule sets up and tracking purposes. Sagarin includes FCS teams with FBS (and actually includes Week 0 results) while SP+ ranking is just based on FBS teams, so there is a little bit of a gap for teams once you get outside the top 70 or so (SDSU is the only FCS team in the top 70 at 56).

Elon: 170th (Sagarin)
Vanderbilt: 71st (SP+), 112th (Sagarin)
Old Dominion: 115th (SP+) 125th (Sagarin)
Georgia Tech: 70th (SP+), 89th (Sagarin)
Clemson: 12th (SP+), 8th (Sagarin)
VT: 69th (SP+), 73rd (Sagarin)
Pitt: 40th (SP+), 34th (Sagarin)
FSU: 11th (SP+), 24th (Sagarin)
Duke: 56th (SP+), 62nd (Sagarin)
State: 46th (SP+), 40th (Sagarin)
ND: 15th (SP+), 11th (Sagarin)
Syracuse: 59th (SP+), 66th (Sagarin)

Wake is 52nd and 48th.
 
CONeill said:
Couldn't help but chuckle at the story from the N&O that was just published.

"The ACC finally ditched divisions, which means the Wolfpack doesn’t have to finish ahead Clemson to get to Charlotte. Just everybody else."

I'm sure it's explained in the article ... but like, it's easier to finish in front of everybody else when you don't have Clemson on the schedule!
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NC State has only finished 2nd in the ACC Atlantic 2 times (2021, 2017) since 2005 when the ACC formed the divisions. They went 9-4 and 9-3 in those two seasons.

So yeah, Clemson being in the Atlantic with them was totally the only thing holding them back.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
While I'm making lists, here's the preseason snapshot of where teams we play rank in Sagarin and SP+ just for general feel of how the schedule sets up and tracking purposes. Sagarin includes FCS teams with FBS (and actually includes Week 0 results) while SP+ ranking is just based on FBS teams, so there is a little bit of a gap for teams once you get outside the top 70 or so (SDSU is the only FCS team in the top 70 at 56).

Elon: 170th (Sagarin)
Vanderbilt: 71st (SP+), 112th (Sagarin)
Old Dominion: 115th (SP+) 125th (Sagarin)
Georgia Tech: 70th (SP+), 89th (Sagarin)
Clemson: 12th (SP+), 8th (Sagarin)
VT: 69th (SP+), 73rd (Sagarin)
Pitt: 40th (SP+), 34th (Sagarin)
FSU: 11th (SP+), 24th (Sagarin)
Duke: 56th (SP+), 62nd (Sagarin)
State: 46th (SP+), 40th (Sagarin)
ND: 15th (SP+), 11th (Sagarin)
Syracuse: 59th (SP+), 66th (Sagarin)

Wake is 52nd and 48th.
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Elon was 136th when Bill put all of D1 together before Week 0 FWIW. Like a 3 point neutral site favorite against Hawaii.
 
I suspect that Vandy's larger gap is explained by Sagarin having input from Week 0 and the list I drew from Bill does not. That performance was.....poor. No idea what post-game win expectancy was there, but I wouldn't be shocked if Hawaii was at least 35-40% to win. Vandy took a kickoff back, had a good punt return into Hawaii territory, Hawaii shanked a punt in Vandy territory, Hawaii failed to score any points from the 6" line, and I believe had another red zone turnover on downs all while outgaining Vandy by almost 100 yards.

Hell Hawaii may have been favored in the post-game win expectancy
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
While I'm making lists, here's the preseason snapshot of where teams we play rank in Sagarin and SP+ just for general feel of how the schedule sets up and tracking purposes. Sagarin includes FCS teams with FBS (and actually includes Week 0 results) while SP+ ranking is just based on FBS teams, so there is a little bit of a gap for teams once you get outside the top 70 or so (SDSU is the only FCS team in the top 70 at 56).

Elon: 170th (Sagarin)
Vanderbilt: 71st (SP+), 112th (Sagarin)
Old Dominion: 115th (SP+) 125th (Sagarin)
Georgia Tech: 70th (SP+), 89th (Sagarin)
Clemson: 12th (SP+), 8th (Sagarin)
VT: 69th (SP+), 73rd (Sagarin)
Pitt: 40th (SP+), 34th (Sagarin)
FSU: 11th (SP+), 24th (Sagarin)
Duke: 56th (SP+), 62nd (Sagarin)
State: 46th (SP+), 40th (Sagarin)
ND: 15th (SP+), 11th (Sagarin)
Syracuse: 59th (SP+), 66th (Sagarin)

Wake is 52nd and 48th.
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going by that 7-5 ... but I will stick with my 11 or better vote. Clemson and Notre Dame are the only L's I see ... and ND is going to be closer than most would expect. Sam knows our D's weaknesses, but Clawson also knows Sam's ..
 
Vandy got outplayed by the Rainbow Warriors.

People remember the Vandy blowout at Hawaii last year, but that was Chang's first game as coach, and Hawaii had massive roster turnover. With a Hawaii's blowout losses to start last season seared in everyone's mind, Hawaii was a covering wagon to end last season. Like them against Stanford -- or did like the Rainbows against Stanford this week -- the line opened at Stanford -10; its -3.5 now; still like Hawaii, but the value is gone. People have finally caught on that Hawaii was undervalued (also Stanford is playing its first game with a new coach; while Hawaii already has a game in the bag).
 
the 1-week Vandy hype train last year was hilarious. people speculating they would be the first ranked team Bama would face, and that they'd take us out especially with Hartman coming in cold.
 
BarcaDeac said:
the 1-week Vandy hype train last year was hilarious. people speculating they would be the first ranked team Bama would face, and that they'd take us out especially with Hartman coming in cold.
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Yes I made a good chunk of change off of that one. Got it before Hartman was even announced that he would play.

I don't think either Hawaii or Vandy are good at all. I think Hawaii may be better than a toss up with Elon but I thought both teams looked pretty awful
 
lovemydeacs said:
but I will stick with my 11 or better vote. Clemson and Notre Dame are the only L's I see
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This happens every year in this thread. People only want to project the losses in which Wake will have <20% win expectancy.

If Wake has 5 games with a ~60% win expectancy, the most reasonable expectation would be to go 3-2 in those games. And Wake would be favored in all of them.
 
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