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Hypothetical Seed Discussion (#8/#9 vs. #10 seed) (NWT)

Arsene Wenger said:
Is a Dayton game is best case scenario at this point?
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It would appear so. The committee chair said the field will be determined by who you played, where you played, and who you beat. I think that is bad for us. He said metrics would weigh more heavily for seeding. That's actually good for us. I doubt we would land as the last team in and then have NET and Kenpom move us out of Dayton, but I guess there's a Lloyd Christmas chance. I think a BC win would have gotten us in and avoided Dayton (pending potential bid thieves). Our nonconference SOS is going to weigh more heavily than any single loss I think. At least years ago it seemed the biggest "snub" for a power conference team was always the one with a terrible nonconference SOS.
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
It would appear so. The committee chair said the field will be determined by who you played, where you played, and who you beat. I think that is bad for us. He said metrics would weigh more heavily for seeding. That's actually good for us. I doubt we would land as the last team in and then have NET and Kenpom move us out of Dayton, but I guess there's a Lloyd Christmas chance. I think a BC win would have gotten us in and avoided Dayton (pending potential bid thieves). Our nonconference SOS is going to weigh more heavily than any single loss I think. At least years ago it seemed the biggest "snub" for a power conference team was always the one with a terrible nonconference SOS.
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This.
 
Eh if things go chalk there are arguments out there to put Wake above Notre Dame and maybe Michigan. Especially with the whole punching thing. It's probably like 10% we get a last bye, 40% Dayton, 50% NIT. But if VaTech beats UNC tomorrow I think it's over. Don't see 6 ACC teams getting in.
 
DCDeac said:
Eh if things go chalk there are arguments out there to put Wake above Notre Dame and maybe Michigan. Especially with the whole punching thing. It's probably like 10% we get a last bye, 40% Dayton, 50% NIT. But if VaTech beats UNC tomorrow I think it's over. Don't see 6 ACC teams getting in.
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I mean we all know that VT is going to play like the curse of the nut punch is behind them.
 
I say if we are lucky enough to make the play-in game that's on the team. Go out and win it. We had 3 chances to cement an NCAAT bid, double digit lead against Miami at home, @ Clemson and BC in the ACCT.

We just needed to win one of those games and we'd be hard to keep out of the NCAAT.

Lunardi has no say in anything. I'm betting we will magically appear in last 4 out in the next two days without any real reason.

ETA: today in the bracket matrix we were only in 85 brackets, as a 12, which is interesting since that is out of 133 brackets. There are only 3 teams listed that are not in 100+ brackets. The other two are/would be conf champs. VCU in other is on 60, Indiana was only on 36 coming into today.

The bracket matrix is interesting since its a wide swath of predictions. Not sure I can really handle hope but Xavier is in 19 more brackets than us.
 
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Of course we should have taken care of our own destiny, but Wyoming? Really? They were 4th in the Mountain west. Their Quad 1 wins are Colo St, Boise St, @ Fresno (75 Net), @ Utah St (18-16, 8-10 7th place, Net 60).

I know the ACC is down but is Utah St. really better than Miami? Someone beat OK, but by playing a tougher schedule and losing does that make the conference teams better.

Long and the short of this is, we need Wyoming to lose, badly hopefully. Of course they will win the way it's going.
 
Why is the first four always in Dayton? Did someone on the City Council or with the University say "Pasadena has the Rose Bowl, Augusta has the Masters, we need the sad pre-tourney Tourney games that delay everyone's brackets until 12 hours before the tipoff of the real games?" Kind of sucks that two of the play-in teams could get de facto home games (against us, perhaps).
 
If we have to play in front of an entirely pro Xavier crowd, we’re getting what we deserved as it was easily avoidable. As I said elsewhere, maybe it will actually fire us up.

If we end up in the NIT, we’ll get a pro Wake crowd, but it won’t be huge.
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
It would appear so. The committee chair said the field will be determined by who you played, where you played, and who you beat. I think that is bad for us. He said metrics would weigh more heavily for seeding. That's actually good for us. I doubt we would land as the last team in and then have NET and Kenpom move us out of Dayton, but I guess there's a Lloyd Christmas chance. I think a BC win would have gotten us in and avoided Dayton (pending potential bid thieves). Our nonconference SOS is going to weigh more heavily than any single loss I think. At least years ago it seemed the biggest "snub" for a power conference team was always the one with a terrible nonconference SOS.
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If the committee chair said that, and if they apply that, we are out. If we get a bid, he will have those words shoved back in his face and he will be pressed as to why WF would be let in under those criteria. Sucks because Notre Dame has one non-con win over the top 200, but they can point to playing people (and mostly losing) along with that one win over Kentucky.
 
I understand why we played a shitty OOC schedule, but I liked it a lot better when we had a record that was a little worse and we got to rely on the strength of our OOC schedule and of the ACC. We can’t play a bunch of terrible teams, rack up wins and then expect to make it off the bubble. Again, I know why we had to do that this year, but I look forward to arguing out SOS should get us in, not should keep us out.
 
daaberry said:
I still feel they land in the final 4 byes. It seems like Wake fell harder for not playing over the weekend as opposed to losing yesterday. After NC St game, felt they were last couple 9s or first couple 10s.
Don’t think the one loss drops them out. From Lunardi’s last update, I think WF favors well when evaluated next to both Michigan and Notre Dame.
We’ll see what happens. If they get shipped to NIT, I wonder if they would end up one of those teams that give it there all or play uninspired due to disappointment in being there.
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I mean, do you really have to wonder how the team would play?
 
The committee should also recognize that we beat VT (on the road), UVA (on the road), UNC, and ND. Also, we finished 5th in the ACC. Not “8th/9th”. It’s still a major conference. You still have to play in Cameron and the Carrier Dome etc.
 
awakegirl said:
I understand why we played a shitty OOC schedule, but I liked it a lot better when we had a record that was a little worse and we got to rely on the strength of our OOC schedule and of the ACC. We can’t play a bunch of terrible teams, rack up wins and then expect to make it off the bubble. Again, I know why we had to do that this year, but I look forward to arguing out SOS should get us in, not should keep us out.
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Oregon State was not expected to be as abysmal as they turned out to be. Preseason picked 4th in Pac 12, finished DFL 1-19. Northwestern (preseason 14 B1G finished T10) and LSU preseason 6 SEC, finished T5) have done about as expected.

None of the other 7 exceeded expectations enough to become Q2 wins. The Orgeon State win, expected to be Q1/Q2 ended up Q3.
 
Deaconblue said:
Oregon State was not expected to be as abysmal as they turned out to be. Preseason picked 4th in Pac 12, finished DFL 1-19. Northwestern (preseason 14 B1G finished T10) and LSU preseason 6 SEC, finished T5) have done about as expected.

None of the other 7 exceeded expectations enough to become Q2 wins. The Orgeon State win, expected to be Q1/Q2 ended up Q3.
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There were years when we had multiple top 10 teams to rely on. We traditionally played a tough OOC and a strong ACC. We couldn’t do that because we weren’t going to be good enough and needed to build confidence, but I can remember being mad the year we won the NIT that teams with better W-L records got in over us and we beat teams like #3 Kansas. I’d like to get back to the point where we rely on a tough schedule again.
 
awakegirl said:
There were years when we had multiple top 10 teams to rely on. We traditionally played a tough OOC and a strong ACC. We couldn’t do that because we weren’t going to be good enough and needed to build confidence, but I can remember being mad the year we won the NIT that teams with better W-L records got in over us and we beat teams like #3 Kansas. I’d like to get back to the point where we rely on a tough schedule again.
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I'm in this camp. Lets just try and make the schedule hard as possible going forward. Try our best to get like 17-18 wins and that should be enough. Hell, look at Xavier. Finished 18-13, 8-11 in conference and has lost 8 of 10, but apparently still have a good shot at getting in.

I'm probably misremembering but didn't Vandy have a year where they finished around 17-15 or something and got an 8-9 seed in the big dance due to having a strongly rated schedule?
 
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