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Late Week Mafia - Captain's Choice Assassins Day 2 ends at 5:30

gouda said:
Am I a god?
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FemaleNeedyBunting-max-1mb.gif
 
@SD3 did you investigate me because i tried to kill you D1? I totally thought you were maf and we'd get Nonny who was clearly civ + i would have cred for attempting to bus you.

And yeah, it def felt like this was tilted in civ favor. Without knowing who each other are on N1 you've got a 25% chance of killing a teammate (Assassin B/C) and a 12.5% chance of not having a kill (Evil Count). A better than 1 in 3 chance of a bad outcome for maf.
 
Gaterrapin said:
And how did doofus die?
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It was two masons vs one assassin. Game over.

The win condition is that the game is over if the King and Queen are eliminated so the auto lynch keeps the Queen from having to claim in order to share. It helped SD3 that the only civs got lynched and hit. He could safely claim. He didn’t know the numbers had already protected Gouda as well.

Obviously a lot of the mechanics work better in a bigger game and for a much bigger game, I’d separate the Cop from the Queen.
 
PhDeac said:
It was two masons vs one assassin. Game over.

The win condition is that the game is over if the King and Queen are eliminated so the auto lynch keeps the Queen from having to claim in order to share. It helped SD3 that the only civs got lynched and hit. He could safely claim. He didn’t know the numbers had already protected Gouda as well.

Obviously a lot of the mechanics work better in a bigger game and for a much bigger game, I’d separate the Cop from the Queen.
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Got it. Thanks. This was a lot of fun despite getting my ass handed to me.
 
Just to be clear on game theory, I was right to hit Numbers instead of guessing between Gouda and SD3, right?
 
mako1331 said:
Holy shit. This is over already?
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Yeah. See post #30. The cop listed 3 of 4 mafia within the opening minutes.

GAT, I think the game biases whoever plays really well. Mafia have a numbers advantage that is somewhat restricted by basically being Indys. If SD3 hadn’t nailed you all from the start, it would have been more balanced.

I look forward to doing it again with more people.
 
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PhDeac said:
Yeah. See post #30. The cop listed 3 of 4 mafia within the opening minutes.

GAT, I think the game biases whoever plays really well. Mafia have a numbers advantage that is somewhat restricted by basically being Indys. If SD3 hadn’t nailed you all from the start, it would have been more balanced.

I look forward to doing it again with more people.
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the smaller numbers certainly didn’t help. Basically if we didn’t get the queen early it’s over. If the queen kills the count on investigation (not sure if she does), then on N1 the queen had a 57% chance of hitting & killing maf if she threw a dart. Maf is hindered from voting together and the odds of the queen getting voted out are exceptionally low with 22% of D1 votes in her pocket. With Assassin A having a 28% chance (2 in 7 excluding himself and count) of hitting maf, there’s strong likelihood of dead maf on N1.

A living king and queen as numbers drop it becomes mathematically impossible to lynch either role quickly and you’re left with something like a 50/50 shot of lynching maf. Then you have again a really strong likelihood of maf being killed at night again on N2.

id bet if we ran that game 10 times, maf might win 1 or 2.

im not crapping on the game because it was a lot of fun. Just thinking through what the path to victory could look like for maf. And I do think higher numbers would even it out.
 
Gaterrapin said:
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the smaller numbers certainly didn’t help. Basically if we didn’t get the queen early it’s over. If the queen kills the count on investigation (not sure if she does), then on N1 the queen had a 57% chance of hitting & killing maf if she threw a dart. Maf is hindered from voting together and the odds of the queen getting voted out are exceptionally low with 22% of D1 votes in her pocket. With Assassin A having a 28% chance (2 in 7 excluding himself and count) of hitting maf, there’s strong likelihood of dead maf on N1.

A living king and queen as numbers drop it becomes mathematically impossible to lynch either role quickly and you’re left with something like a 50/50 shot of lynching maf. Then you have again a really strong likelihood of maf being killed at night again on N2.

id bet if we ran that game 10 times, maf might win 1 or 2.

im not crapping on the game because it was a lot of fun. Just thinking through what the path to victory could look like for maf. And I do think higher numbers would even it out.
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You're right. Both on civ sided and that its a fun game. I'd like to see it with more people
 
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