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MBB Game 18: Louisville @ LJVM -- Saturday Noon -- ESPNU

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Our Deacs play a home game this Saturday, and WF MBB likes home games (10-0; 3-0 ACC @ LJVM), against the Louisville Cardinals as a former WF HC makes his unemotional return to Winston-Salem. Here is a quick take UL:

Louisville 6-11 (1-5) #190. Cardinal basketball has been bad for awhile: on January 5, 2022, L'ville beat Pitt at home to go 10-4 (4-0 in the ACC). Since that win a little more than two years ago, UL basketball is 13-54 (6-39 against ACC teams); just an unbelievably horrendous stretch of basketball for a tradition-rich (and scandal-ridden) program. This year, Louisville has a ton of embarrassing losses (#275 DePaul - who is the worst power conference team in the nation, #184 Chattanooga, #161 Arkansas State), and only one win over a team ranked better than #202, an inexplicable 9 point win over #66 Miami. That said, L'ville has played its best basketball lately:
  • Jan. 10: 9 point win over Miami
  • Jan. 13: 6 point loss to NC State
  • Jan. 17: 86-70 loss to UNC (after falling behind 21-6 to start; L'ville; worked UNC's lead down to 5 in the second half, and kept UNC's lead under 10 until less than 7 minutes to go)
Over this recent stretch, the Cards are 3-0 ATS, and according to Torvik have played better than UVA, ND, BC, Miami and Pitt since January 10th). So, yes, L'ville sucks, but they have sucked less against other ACC teams.

Analytics (conference games only; ranks are out of the 15 ACC teams):

L'ville Offense ============= WF Defense

Adj. Eff. 103 #10 -------------------- 100 #6
Eff. FG% 54 #3 --------------------- 48 #4
TO% 18 #12 ----------------------- 17 #7
O Reb. % 21 #15 ------------------ 23 #2
3 PT% 40 #2 ---------------------- 37 #12
2 PT% 50 #5 ---------------------- 46#3

WF Offense =============== L'ville Defense

Adj. Eff. 110 #4 -------------------- 117 #14
Eff. FG% 53 #4 -------------------- 55 #14
TO% 18 #13 ---------------------- 15 #11
O Reb% 29 #5 ------------------- 29 #11
3 PT% 40 #1 ------------------------ 37 #11
2 PT% 50 #7 -------------------- 55 #14

OK, who would have thought L'ville at WF would pit the ACC's best three point shooting teams against each other (the Cards have drastically improved their shooting percentages in ACC play)? As is clear from the numbers above, in ACC play, L'ville has been a decent offensive team (except for the TOs and no offensive boards), and a poor defensive team. Niether team uses its bench much, WF is bigger and more experienced. Both teams have turned it over way too much on offense.

Roster:

Last night against UNC, the Cards started:


6-3 2nd year Skyy Clark: Illinois transfer: leading scorer (14 ppg); 2nd in assists and steals; 42% from three in ACC play; has had his best games against the top teams (20 v. Texas; 20 v. KY; 16 v. UNC)
6-3 3rd year Hercy Miller: TN State transfer; has hardly played; started last three, but has a total of 11 points on the season;
6-5 2nd year Mike James: 2nd in scoring (14 ppg) and reb (6 ppg); 42% from three; scored 26 in the win over Miami
6-8 2nd year Danilo Jovanovich: started last 5 games, but also barely plays (started, but played only 4 minutes against UNC)
6-10 3rd year Brandon Huntley-Hatfield: TN transfer; played well lately (17 ppg; 8 rpg against UNC, NCS and Miami); 60 % from 2; leads team in boards (8.5 rpg)

Bench:

The L'ville coaching braintrust recently decided to bring three of its better players off the bench:

6-7 2nd year Tre White: USC transfer; started the first 12; 3rd on the team in scorring (12 ppg); 3rd in rebounding; played 31 minutes agains UNC (12 points)
6-5 1st year Curtis Williams: played his best in conference play (12 ppg; 44% from three)
6-0 1st year: Ty-Laur Johnson; leads team in assists (4 apg) and steals; 19% from three; 8 ppg and 4 apg against ACC teams

Projections:

KP: WF 84-68
Torvik: 85-68

The metrics suggest that this is WF's easiest ACC game by a wide margin (GT on March 5th is the only other game left on the schedule which projects as a double digit win). If WF had won in Raleigh on Tuesday, would have some concern about WF being flat for the Cards with UNC on deck for Monday (quick turnaround), but after the galling loss to the Pack, expect WF to come out angry. The Deacs have played their best ball at home this year, and have easily handled much tougher opponents at LJVM in recent games (UVA by 19, VT by 23, Florida by 11). Also, L'ville is coming off the UNC game on ESPN; so, perhaps, WF is a flat spot for them. Think WF wins easily, but the projected number of 16 or 17 is too high to recommned (L'ville lost by 16 at UNC last night). Would lean over, but L'ville may be facing some three point shooting regression as they are currently shooting more than 10% better in ACC play than OOC games. Also, if WF is up comfortably, can see Forbes using his bench a little more than usual with the UNC game 48 hours later.

Let's just win this game without too much stress, stay healthy, and get ready for an all-out effort at Chapel Hill on Monday.
 
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Now that ND and FSU have shown signs of a pulse, Louvul is the 1 truly atrocious ACC team. They're unwatchable - the equivalent of the Manning era Deacs.
 
Beat them by 20+ and move on.

Strangely, the Cards have played better on the road than at home. But still bad overall.
 
deacon14 said:
Yeah, it's hilariously not even a "must-win", it's a "must-not lose". Same category as playing Elon or something lol.
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The choke job at state should now have Wake's full attention for this home game Sat.
 
Pilchard said:
The metrics suggest that this is WF's easiest ACC game by a wide margin (GT on March 5th is the only other game left on the schedule which projects as a double digit win). If WF had won in Raleigh on Tuesday, would have some concern about WF being flat for the Cards with UNC on deck for Monday (quick turnaround), but after the galling loss to the Pack, expect WF to come out angry. The Deacs have played their best ball at home this year, and have easily handled much tougher opponents at LJVM in recent games (UVA by 19, VT by 23, Florida by 11). Also, L'ville is coming off the UNC game on ESPN; so, perhaps, WF is a flat spot for them. Think WF wins easily, but the projected number of 16 or 17 is too high to recommned (L'ville lost by 16 at UNC last night). Would lean over, but L'ville may be facing some three point shooting regression as they are currently shooting more than 10% better in ACC play than OOC games. Also, if WF is up comfortably, can see Forbes using his bench a little more than usual with the UNC game 48 hours later.

Let's just win this game without too much stress, stay healthy, and get ready for an all-out effort at Chapel Hill on Monday.
Click to expand...
Sadly, the game last night was not on ESPN, it was on ACC Network....and the previous game (FSU/Miami) ran about 15 minutes long, yet ESPN couldn't figure out how to allow access to the start of the UNC/Louisville game on any of their other platforms (the link at WatchESPNwould not pull up the game, and they didn't have it start on ESPNews either). Was very frustrating, but par for the course for ESPN where they cram these games into 2-hour windows. At least the CW gets it right and starts their windows 2 hours and 15 minutes apart!
 
I personally do not think this will be easy, they gave Carolina a tough 2nd half until the last 6 minutes or so, and Carolina is much better than us (ducks)
 
Louisville has been so bad this year that it's really just a crappy game to have to play. A win by single digits will drop our NET and metrics a good bit. Let's win by 20.
 
sportsnut1 said:
I personally do not think this will be easy, they gave Carolina a tough 2nd half until the last 6 minutes or so, and Carolina is much better than us (ducks)
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UNC had a 17 point halftime lead. The closest the score got was a 5 point differential in the second half, and UNC won by 16. Playing a team close in the second half once you are already down double digits isn't nearly the same as doing it in a close game.

So I just fundamentally disagree with this post.
 
I effing hate ALL things U of Louisville and their dumb and dumber stupid ass fans. Lets beat the ever-loving shit out of this pathetic bunch of bass-ackwards hilllbillies.
 
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