Pilchard
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Our Deacs travel (yikes) to Atlanta tomorrow to face former WF 'natual rival' GT in cozy McCamish Pavillion. Here's the rundown on the 'high variance' Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech 10-12 (3-8) #126: The Jackets seem like the perfect opponent for WF to solve its road woes. GT is only 2-4 at home in the ACC with losses to #90 BC by 8, #165 ND (!) by 7 (in OT), to #57 UVA by 9 and to #68 Pitt by 8. So, #31 WF should waltz into ATL and get its first road win in 35 day, right? Well, the Jackets have already managed home wins over #15 Duke and then, #8 UNC last week. GT also beat #42 Mississippi State at home in the ACC/SEC challenge. So, GT is inexplicably 3-0 at home against top 50 teams (WF is top 50), and somehow 0-5 at home against teams ranked #51 to #165 (in addition to their ACC loses, the Jackets also lost at home to #150 UMASS-Lowell). Just a really bizarre set of home results. On Saturday, GT lost at NC State 82-76, after a withering 24-4 Pack 2nd half run.
The Analytics (ACC Games only) - Geez, GT's defense is weak:
Wake Forest O --------------- Georgia Tech D
Eff. 112 #5 ------------------ 117 #15
Eff. FG% 55 #2 --------------- 52 #9
TO% 17 #12 ----------------- 13 #15
O Reb% 27 #9 --------------- 33 #15
3 PT% 40 #1 ----------------- 37 #11
2 PT% 52 #4 ----------------- 50 #6
Georgia Tech O -------------- Wake Forest D
Eff. 107 #6 ------------------- 102 #5
Eff. FG% 53 #4 --------------- 49 #4
TO% 16 #8 ------------------- 15 #12
O Reb% 27 #6 --------------- 21 #1
3 PT% 38 #5 ----------------- 34 #4
2 PT% 50 #9 ----------------- 49 #5
GT's defense has the rare/almost impossible combination of forcing few turnovers, yet giving up a ton of offensive boards, as teams that play soft defense usually clog the paint and don't surrender 2nd shots; not the Jackets. The lack of GT TOs is big for WF as when has collapsed on the road TOs were often at the center of the loss (@ FSU 20 TOs, @ NCS 17 TOs, Pitt 15 TOs). The Jackets just don't force many. Offensively, when GT has upset better opponents, the three point line has typically been the key for the GT offense (W over UNC - 45%; W @ Clemson - 43%; close loss at Duke - 55%). 39% of GT's offense comes from threes (#2 in the ACC). So, defending the key will be huge for the Deacs. GT is slightly less experienced than WF and slightly bigger than WF.
Roster:
In Saturday's loss in Raliegh, GT started:
6-3 1st year Naithan George: unrated HS recruit (only other offer was Sam Houston State); 10 ppg leads team in assists; has been improving lately; double figures in 6 of his last 7 games; 16 points and 4 assists in the win over UNC
6-6 3rd year Miles Kelly: leading scorer (15 ppg); 2nd in boards (6 rpg); 30% from three; 20 and 10 in loss to NC State;
6-7 3rd year Kowacie Reeves: Florida transfer; 11 ppg 4 rpg 41% from three; 47% in ACC games; 4 for 6 from deep against the Pack
6-9 1st year Baye Ndongo: top 100 HS recruit; 2nd in scoring (12); 1st in boards (8) and blocks; doesn't shoot many threes; just 7 points last two games
6-11 4th year Ebenezer Dowuona: NC State transfer; starts but plays limited minutes; does not shoot three; non-factor
GT has a deep bench led by:
The Projection:
KP: WF 79-73
Torvik; WF 78-74
Got to like the matchup of the ACC's #2 WF offense against the ACC's worst GT defense. Then again, GT just beat the team (UNC) with the #1 ACC offense last week. So, that's why they play the games.
Given WF's 0-4 road run, 2nd half road collapses and GT's ability to step up to beat good teams, impossible to be super-confident. That's said, it's past the time for WF's best road effort of the season as the staff and players must be tired of trying to explain why WF seems to habitually collapse on the road. Matchup-wise, it's great for WF that GT's D doesn't force TOs, and that GT's offense is three-reliant as WF has been solid at defending the three in ACC play (WF gives up the fewest % of points from behind the arc in ACC games); so, there are reasons to think Tuesday night's game will different than the Deacs' recent road stumbles. Don't have a strong lean ATS, but I think the Deacs get a much needed win on Tuesday. FWIW, Deacs next two road games are at Duke (where WF hasn't won in decades) and at UVA (UVA has been the ACC's best home team this year); so, the time is now.
Georgia Tech 10-12 (3-8) #126: The Jackets seem like the perfect opponent for WF to solve its road woes. GT is only 2-4 at home in the ACC with losses to #90 BC by 8, #165 ND (!) by 7 (in OT), to #57 UVA by 9 and to #68 Pitt by 8. So, #31 WF should waltz into ATL and get its first road win in 35 day, right? Well, the Jackets have already managed home wins over #15 Duke and then, #8 UNC last week. GT also beat #42 Mississippi State at home in the ACC/SEC challenge. So, GT is inexplicably 3-0 at home against top 50 teams (WF is top 50), and somehow 0-5 at home against teams ranked #51 to #165 (in addition to their ACC loses, the Jackets also lost at home to #150 UMASS-Lowell). Just a really bizarre set of home results. On Saturday, GT lost at NC State 82-76, after a withering 24-4 Pack 2nd half run.
The Analytics (ACC Games only) - Geez, GT's defense is weak:
Wake Forest O --------------- Georgia Tech D
Eff. 112 #5 ------------------ 117 #15
Eff. FG% 55 #2 --------------- 52 #9
TO% 17 #12 ----------------- 13 #15
O Reb% 27 #9 --------------- 33 #15
3 PT% 40 #1 ----------------- 37 #11
2 PT% 52 #4 ----------------- 50 #6
Georgia Tech O -------------- Wake Forest D
Eff. 107 #6 ------------------- 102 #5
Eff. FG% 53 #4 --------------- 49 #4
TO% 16 #8 ------------------- 15 #12
O Reb% 27 #6 --------------- 21 #1
3 PT% 38 #5 ----------------- 34 #4
2 PT% 50 #9 ----------------- 49 #5
GT's defense has the rare/almost impossible combination of forcing few turnovers, yet giving up a ton of offensive boards, as teams that play soft defense usually clog the paint and don't surrender 2nd shots; not the Jackets. The lack of GT TOs is big for WF as when has collapsed on the road TOs were often at the center of the loss (@ FSU 20 TOs, @ NCS 17 TOs, Pitt 15 TOs). The Jackets just don't force many. Offensively, when GT has upset better opponents, the three point line has typically been the key for the GT offense (W over UNC - 45%; W @ Clemson - 43%; close loss at Duke - 55%). 39% of GT's offense comes from threes (#2 in the ACC). So, defending the key will be huge for the Deacs. GT is slightly less experienced than WF and slightly bigger than WF.
Roster:
In Saturday's loss in Raliegh, GT started:
6-3 1st year Naithan George: unrated HS recruit (only other offer was Sam Houston State); 10 ppg leads team in assists; has been improving lately; double figures in 6 of his last 7 games; 16 points and 4 assists in the win over UNC
6-6 3rd year Miles Kelly: leading scorer (15 ppg); 2nd in boards (6 rpg); 30% from three; 20 and 10 in loss to NC State;
6-7 3rd year Kowacie Reeves: Florida transfer; 11 ppg 4 rpg 41% from three; 47% in ACC games; 4 for 6 from deep against the Pack
6-9 1st year Baye Ndongo: top 100 HS recruit; 2nd in scoring (12); 1st in boards (8) and blocks; doesn't shoot many threes; just 7 points last two games
6-11 4th year Ebenezer Dowuona: NC State transfer; starts but plays limited minutes; does not shoot three; non-factor
GT has a deep bench led by:
- 6-3 Kyle Sturdivant (5th year; started at USC; 9 ppg; 2nd on team in minutes; 18 ppg, 4 for 4 from three, in the win over UNC; think he may have played at GT with John Salley.
- 6-6 Dallan Coleman (36% from three; 6 ppg);
- 6-7 Tyzhaun Claude (Morehead and W. Carolina transfer; 3rd in boards; doesn't shoot the three);
- 6-9 Tafara Gapare (2nd year; UMASS transfer; from New Zealand; 22% from three; plays more minutes at the center than Dowuona; both contribute little)
The Projection:
KP: WF 79-73
Torvik; WF 78-74
Got to like the matchup of the ACC's #2 WF offense against the ACC's worst GT defense. Then again, GT just beat the team (UNC) with the #1 ACC offense last week. So, that's why they play the games.
Given WF's 0-4 road run, 2nd half road collapses and GT's ability to step up to beat good teams, impossible to be super-confident. That's said, it's past the time for WF's best road effort of the season as the staff and players must be tired of trying to explain why WF seems to habitually collapse on the road. Matchup-wise, it's great for WF that GT's D doesn't force TOs, and that GT's offense is three-reliant as WF has been solid at defending the three in ACC play (WF gives up the fewest % of points from behind the arc in ACC games); so, there are reasons to think Tuesday night's game will different than the Deacs' recent road stumbles. Don't have a strong lean ATS, but I think the Deacs get a much needed win on Tuesday. FWIW, Deacs next two road games are at Duke (where WF hasn't won in decades) and at UVA (UVA has been the ACC's best home team this year); so, the time is now.
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