Pilchard
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On Saturday, the Deacs head to frigid snow-covered South Bend to face Notre Dame. Even though the season is winding down, the Deacs will play the Irish again in three weeks in W-S. Here is the rundown on Mike Brey's last ND team:
2022-23 Season: Disappointing end to Mike Brey's stint in South Bend as the 10-12 (2-9) #157 Irish have staggered through this season. Picked as a top 5 ACC team and a likely NCAAT invitee, the Irish started 5-0, but red flags abounded as ND needed late game runs to edge Radford, Lipscomb and Youngstown State.
The Irish started ACC play 1-9, but ND won their second conference game last Saturday over historically awful L'ville. ND is on a mid-week bye, and ND hasn't won consecutive games since November 18-22 (when Sam Hartman was still wearing a WF uniform). In addition the win over pathetic L'ville, ND managed to beat an awful GT team in OT at home. ND has lost all of their other ACC games including getting swept by BC and FSU. This team is bad, and as detailed below, their defense in ACC games has been an embarrassment.
The Analytics (ACC Ranks) -- Keep in mind that according to KP, ND has played the easiest ACC schedule and WF has faced the 3rd toughest:
Offense:
Efficiency: WF 111.7 (#2) - ND 106.3 (#9)
TO %: WF 13.9 (#3) - ND 13.8 (#2)
2 PT FG%: WF 51.7% (#6) - ND 49.4 (#11)
3 PT FG%: WF 37.3% (#3) - ND 37% (#8)
Effective FG%: WF 53.7% (#2) - ND 52.2 (#7)
Defense:
Efficiency: WF 108.9 (#12) - ND 113.9 (DFL)
TO %: WF 17,7% (#4) - ND 12.8% (DFL)
2 FG%: WF 52.9% (#12) - ND 55.2% (#14)
3 PT FG%: WF 37.3% (#13) - ND 34.1% (#8)
Effective FG%: WF 54.3% (#14) - ND 53.8% (#12)
Well aware that WF plays a short bench (25.9% -- #295 in bench minutes). ND's is shorter (15.4% -- #363).
ND is the second slowest tempo team in the ACC averaging only 65 possessions in ACC games.
Irish are the third most experienced team in the nation; lots of 4th and 5th year players, who seem to be ready to move on from basketball.
Roster:
Against L'ville, ND started:
6-4 JJ Starling: frosh, 5 star recruit (247 rated #21), 12 ppg; more TOs than assists; coming off ACC career high 22 in win over L'ville; 32% from 3; 43% from the field; 63% from the line; 95 O rating
6-4 Marcus Hammond: 5th year player; Niagara transfer; WF offered out of the portal; highly coveted transfer; missed November with an injury; 42% from 3; 9 ppg
6-5 Cormac Ryan: senior; started at Stanford; 39% from 3; shoots more threes than twos; 12 ppg; second on team in assists
6-6 Dane Goodwin: 5th year senior; 39% from 3; 22 ppg; essentially the same player as Cormac Ryan
6-10 Nate Laszewski: 5th year senior; leads team in scoring (14 ppg) and rebounding (7 rpg); scored 29 against BC with SEVEN threes; yes, a big that is a threat behind the arc (yikes)
Bench:
6-5 Trey Wertz: 5th year senior; started 22 games; leads team in assists and TOs; 34% from 3; beat WF in the 2021 ACCT with a three pointer at the buzzer
6-8 Ven-Allen Lubin: 6 ppg 5 rpg; missed the L'ville game with an ankle injury status for WF is unknown; only player in the rotation who is not a three point threat.
Projection: KP projects a 78-74 WF win; Torvik 77-74 WF.
There are some bad ACC teams this year. ND is the worst defensive team of them all -- which is saying something. BC is a horrid offensive team, and the Eagles scored 84 in a win at ND. GT scored 43 against Duke last weekend. The Jackets scored 72 (in OT) against ND. FSU scored a season-high 84 at Notre Dame. Even if the Irish try to control tempo (KP projects only 66 possessions on Saturday), WF will get its points. Appleby is a matchup problem for every ACC team, but he is especially problematic for slow footed ND. Also, don't see Ryan or Goodwin being able to stay with Monsanto.
The issue will be whether WF will get enough stops on ND as everyone on ND shoots the three, and opponents have strafed WF from beyond the arc all year. Unless Lubin plays, don't see a viable match up for Marsh or Bradford on Saturday, which really limits minute options for WF. The game should be a fun watch with lots of runs. WF should win and would lean over if the total is 152 or less.
2022-23 Season: Disappointing end to Mike Brey's stint in South Bend as the 10-12 (2-9) #157 Irish have staggered through this season. Picked as a top 5 ACC team and a likely NCAAT invitee, the Irish started 5-0, but red flags abounded as ND needed late game runs to edge Radford, Lipscomb and Youngstown State.
The Irish started ACC play 1-9, but ND won their second conference game last Saturday over historically awful L'ville. ND is on a mid-week bye, and ND hasn't won consecutive games since November 18-22 (when Sam Hartman was still wearing a WF uniform). In addition the win over pathetic L'ville, ND managed to beat an awful GT team in OT at home. ND has lost all of their other ACC games including getting swept by BC and FSU. This team is bad, and as detailed below, their defense in ACC games has been an embarrassment.
The Analytics (ACC Ranks) -- Keep in mind that according to KP, ND has played the easiest ACC schedule and WF has faced the 3rd toughest:
Offense:
Efficiency: WF 111.7 (#2) - ND 106.3 (#9)
TO %: WF 13.9 (#3) - ND 13.8 (#2)
2 PT FG%: WF 51.7% (#6) - ND 49.4 (#11)
3 PT FG%: WF 37.3% (#3) - ND 37% (#8)
Effective FG%: WF 53.7% (#2) - ND 52.2 (#7)
Defense:
Efficiency: WF 108.9 (#12) - ND 113.9 (DFL)
TO %: WF 17,7% (#4) - ND 12.8% (DFL)
2 FG%: WF 52.9% (#12) - ND 55.2% (#14)
3 PT FG%: WF 37.3% (#13) - ND 34.1% (#8)
Effective FG%: WF 54.3% (#14) - ND 53.8% (#12)
Well aware that WF plays a short bench (25.9% -- #295 in bench minutes). ND's is shorter (15.4% -- #363).
ND is the second slowest tempo team in the ACC averaging only 65 possessions in ACC games.
Irish are the third most experienced team in the nation; lots of 4th and 5th year players, who seem to be ready to move on from basketball.
Roster:
Against L'ville, ND started:
6-4 JJ Starling: frosh, 5 star recruit (247 rated #21), 12 ppg; more TOs than assists; coming off ACC career high 22 in win over L'ville; 32% from 3; 43% from the field; 63% from the line; 95 O rating
6-4 Marcus Hammond: 5th year player; Niagara transfer; WF offered out of the portal; highly coveted transfer; missed November with an injury; 42% from 3; 9 ppg
6-5 Cormac Ryan: senior; started at Stanford; 39% from 3; shoots more threes than twos; 12 ppg; second on team in assists
6-6 Dane Goodwin: 5th year senior; 39% from 3; 22 ppg; essentially the same player as Cormac Ryan
6-10 Nate Laszewski: 5th year senior; leads team in scoring (14 ppg) and rebounding (7 rpg); scored 29 against BC with SEVEN threes; yes, a big that is a threat behind the arc (yikes)
Bench:
6-5 Trey Wertz: 5th year senior; started 22 games; leads team in assists and TOs; 34% from 3; beat WF in the 2021 ACCT with a three pointer at the buzzer
6-8 Ven-Allen Lubin: 6 ppg 5 rpg; missed the L'ville game with an ankle injury status for WF is unknown; only player in the rotation who is not a three point threat.
Projection: KP projects a 78-74 WF win; Torvik 77-74 WF.
There are some bad ACC teams this year. ND is the worst defensive team of them all -- which is saying something. BC is a horrid offensive team, and the Eagles scored 84 in a win at ND. GT scored 43 against Duke last weekend. The Jackets scored 72 (in OT) against ND. FSU scored a season-high 84 at Notre Dame. Even if the Irish try to control tempo (KP projects only 66 possessions on Saturday), WF will get its points. Appleby is a matchup problem for every ACC team, but he is especially problematic for slow footed ND. Also, don't see Ryan or Goodwin being able to stay with Monsanto.
The issue will be whether WF will get enough stops on ND as everyone on ND shoots the three, and opponents have strafed WF from beyond the arc all year. Unless Lubin plays, don't see a viable match up for Marsh or Bradford on Saturday, which really limits minute options for WF. The game should be a fun watch with lots of runs. WF should win and would lean over if the total is 152 or less.
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