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MBB Game 27: Miami Hurricanes in Coral Gables - The Watsco Center - Saturday - 2pm - Ballys

Pilchard

Pilchard

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This Saturday, our pesky Deacs play a big one in the Sunshine State in Coral Gables. While this isn't an NCAAT elimination game for WF, everyone would feel a lot better about the Deacs' dancing prospects with a win. Here is the breakdown on the Canes.

This season: 21-5 (12-4) #32. The Canes are peaking. Miami has a bunch of solid wins this year (Providence, Rutgers, UVA, @UNC, @UCF), and they are playing particularly well of late. After blowing an 8 point lead in the final two minutes against Pitt, Miami has won 5 straight ACC games including at Clemson and at UNC. Miami has one bad loss (at GT - also Maryland blew out Miami on a neutral court), but otherwise the Canes have solid credentials. Those credentials include a spotless 14-0 mark at the Watsco Center (Duke and Miami are the ACC's two home unbeaten teams).

Conference Analytics:

Offense
Efficiency: UM 114 (#1) - WF 111.6 (#2)
TO%: UM 16.1% (#7) - WF 13.8% (#3)
Off. Reb %: UM 30.6 (#2) - WF 22.4 (#13)
2 PT FG%: UM 53% (#2) - WF 52.4% (#4)
3 PT FG%: UM 37.4% (#1) - WF 37.1% (#3)
Effective FG%: UM 54.3% (#1) - WF 53.8% (#2)

Defense
Efficiency: UM 102.5 (#7) - WF 107 (#9)
TO%: UM 16.8% (#6) - WF 16.6% (#7)
Off. Reb. %: UM 28.4% (#10) - WF 27% (#7)
2 PT FG%: UM 50.6% (#8) - WF 50.6% (#7)
3 PT FG%: UM 31.4% (#2) - WF 35.7% (12)
Effective FG%: UM 49.4% (#5) - WF 51.8% (#9)

Neither team uses the bench: WF is #308 in bench minutes; Miami is #316. Both teams are experienced and WF is bigger.

The roster:
In the win at UNC, the Canes started:

6-0 Nigel Pack: K State transfer, all Big 12 last year, elite 3 point shooter (45% in ACC play; over 40% each of the last three years); 23 in the win over UNC; defense is suspect; when he's not hitting from 3, he can be liability; shot 3 for 12 in the loss to GT
6-4 Isaiah Wong: stud; leads team in scoring, steals and assists; 37% from 3; he rarely plays poorly, but when he does Miami often loses: 63 O rating in the loss to GT, 73 in the loss to Duke 76 in the loss to Pitt (those are three of his worst 4 games of the year)
6-5 Wooga Poplar: most improved player on the team; non-factor last year; 7 ppg 3 rpg this year, playing his best ball of the season 37% from 3
6-7 Jordan Miller: George Mason transfer; 2nd leading scorer and rebounder; 24 points and 11 rebounds in the win at UNC; 36% from three; 60% from two
6-7 Norchad Omier: Arkansas State transfer; from Nicarugua; strong; 14 points and 10 boards a game; 3 for 13 on the year from three; 62% from two

The bench:
6-2 Joseph Bensley: shoots threes (37%, but only 28% in ACC play); 5 ppg, 2 apg; 2 rpg;
6-6 Harlond Beverly: 33% from 3: 3 ppg;
6-9 Anthony Walker: played sparingly lately; 10 points in the last 4 games; 11% from 3;

Projection: KP projects an 85-77 Miami win; Tovik 86-79 Canes.

From an analytics basis, two similar teams as both are elite offensively and mediocre defensively. That said, Miami's edges are on the offensive glass and 3 point defense. Surprising that Miami is such a good offensive rebounding team given their size (no starter over 6-7), but they are very athletic and chase down every loose ball. Defensively, Miami has been elite at defending the three and WF has not. Three point defense metrics are among the most volatile and random; so, an argument can be made that Miami is a little worse defensively than the metrics indicate and WF is better. Deacs are rested with a week off before this game, while Miami off a huge win at UNC on ESPN. So, the spot favors WF a little bit. That said Miami is at home where they are unbeaten.

If Carr is fully healthy after a week to recover and the Deacs are rejuvenated after a few days off, like WF to at least keep it competitive. Also, WF is very reliant on the three point shot, if Monsanto is stroking if from deep and any one of Appleby, Williamson Klintman is on from behind the arc, the Deacs have a chance. Last year, WF and Miami combined for 176 points in Coral Gables, think we will see another offense dominant type of game. Over. Deacs win, and WF may find itself on the good side of the bubble. This game should be a great watch, just a shame that the platform will be Ballys.
 
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Today I learned what Watsco is.

I don't feel good about this one for Wake, seems like a rough matchup so let's come out drilling threes.
 
I think we matchup very poorly with Miami. Not that we are overly soft, but they really punch you in the mouth with their physicality, can spread us out, and knock down the 3 ball.
 
Jordan Miller might be among the most boring names ever, but man, do they really make up for it.

Yeah, I'm not super optimistic about this one, but maybe it means we can just let it fly and go balls to the wall. Would be kind of tempted to start (or see a lot of anyway), Ty, Cam, Monsanto, Klintman, Carr.
 
We could play zone? Or do they torch it?

I feel like man-to-man will yield watching our guys chase them around and they tip out long rebounds etc. for extra possessions, drive and dish, spread floor drive and finish with the "and 1" - mediocre crowd goes wild - I've seen this before.
 
X factor here is probably the week off as Pilch said. If we shoot well from 3 you never know and they are bound to drop a game eventually.
 
Simplistic way of looking at it, but the metrics say that Miami is basically a better version of Wake... They have an elite offense and a meh defense.

They are also playing at home.

But I like the spot for Wake and agree that we'll keep it competitive. Hoping we can steal one at the end... Would be a big win.

Maybe they'll just have an off game. That'd help.
 
Complacent Deac said:
We could play zone? Or do they torch it?

I feel like man-to-man will yield watching our guys chase them around and they tip out long rebounds etc. for extra possessions, drive and dish, spread floor drive and finish with the "and 1" - mediocre crowd goes wild - I've seen this before.
Click to expand...
Yeah. Seems like a combination of the Pitt game and State game.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I think we matchup very poorly with Miami. Not that we are overly soft, but they really punch you in the mouth with their physicality, can spread us out, and knock down the 3 ball.
Click to expand...

Dominate the paint while hitting consistent threes? Who doesn’t match up poorly with them?
 
Toughest game left on the schedule including the ACC Tourney, imo.

Concerned over Appleby expending a ton of juice guarding Pack but hopefully the week off gives him some additional gas in the tank. And we need Carr as close to 100% as possible.

Don't have a good feeling about this one but we are due for a road conference game when the home team isn't scorching hot from 3. Hopefully it's Saturday but if not next week in Raleigh.
 
I want to believe, but I just can't see it.

Wednesday @State is much more realistic, IMHO.
 
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