Pilchard
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This Saturday, our pesky Deacs play a big one in the Sunshine State in Coral Gables. While this isn't an NCAAT elimination game for WF, everyone would feel a lot better about the Deacs' dancing prospects with a win. Here is the breakdown on the Canes.
This season: 21-5 (12-4) #32. The Canes are peaking. Miami has a bunch of solid wins this year (Providence, Rutgers, UVA, @UNC, @UCF), and they are playing particularly well of late. After blowing an 8 point lead in the final two minutes against Pitt, Miami has won 5 straight ACC games including at Clemson and at UNC. Miami has one bad loss (at GT - also Maryland blew out Miami on a neutral court), but otherwise the Canes have solid credentials. Those credentials include a spotless 14-0 mark at the Watsco Center (Duke and Miami are the ACC's two home unbeaten teams).
Conference Analytics:
Offense
Efficiency: UM 114 (#1) - WF 111.6 (#2)
TO%: UM 16.1% (#7) - WF 13.8% (#3)
Off. Reb %: UM 30.6 (#2) - WF 22.4 (#13)
2 PT FG%: UM 53% (#2) - WF 52.4% (#4)
3 PT FG%: UM 37.4% (#1) - WF 37.1% (#3)
Effective FG%: UM 54.3% (#1) - WF 53.8% (#2)
Defense
Efficiency: UM 102.5 (#7) - WF 107 (#9)
TO%: UM 16.8% (#6) - WF 16.6% (#7)
Off. Reb. %: UM 28.4% (#10) - WF 27% (#7)
2 PT FG%: UM 50.6% (#8) - WF 50.6% (#7)
3 PT FG%: UM 31.4% (#2) - WF 35.7% (12)
Effective FG%: UM 49.4% (#5) - WF 51.8% (#9)
Neither team uses the bench: WF is #308 in bench minutes; Miami is #316. Both teams are experienced and WF is bigger.
The roster:
In the win at UNC, the Canes started:
6-0 Nigel Pack: K State transfer, all Big 12 last year, elite 3 point shooter (45% in ACC play; over 40% each of the last three years); 23 in the win over UNC; defense is suspect; when he's not hitting from 3, he can be liability; shot 3 for 12 in the loss to GT
6-4 Isaiah Wong: stud; leads team in scoring, steals and assists; 37% from 3; he rarely plays poorly, but when he does Miami often loses: 63 O rating in the loss to GT, 73 in the loss to Duke 76 in the loss to Pitt (those are three of his worst 4 games of the year)
6-5 Wooga Poplar: most improved player on the team; non-factor last year; 7 ppg 3 rpg this year, playing his best ball of the season 37% from 3
6-7 Jordan Miller: George Mason transfer; 2nd leading scorer and rebounder; 24 points and 11 rebounds in the win at UNC; 36% from three; 60% from two
6-7 Norchad Omier: Arkansas State transfer; from Nicarugua; strong; 14 points and 10 boards a game; 3 for 13 on the year from three; 62% from two
The bench:
6-2 Joseph Bensley: shoots threes (37%, but only 28% in ACC play); 5 ppg, 2 apg; 2 rpg;
6-6 Harlond Beverly: 33% from 3: 3 ppg;
6-9 Anthony Walker: played sparingly lately; 10 points in the last 4 games; 11% from 3;
Projection: KP projects an 85-77 Miami win; Tovik 86-79 Canes.
From an analytics basis, two similar teams as both are elite offensively and mediocre defensively. That said, Miami's edges are on the offensive glass and 3 point defense. Surprising that Miami is such a good offensive rebounding team given their size (no starter over 6-7), but they are very athletic and chase down every loose ball. Defensively, Miami has been elite at defending the three and WF has not. Three point defense metrics are among the most volatile and random; so, an argument can be made that Miami is a little worse defensively than the metrics indicate and WF is better. Deacs are rested with a week off before this game, while Miami off a huge win at UNC on ESPN. So, the spot favors WF a little bit. That said Miami is at home where they are unbeaten.
If Carr is fully healthy after a week to recover and the Deacs are rejuvenated after a few days off, like WF to at least keep it competitive. Also, WF is very reliant on the three point shot, if Monsanto is stroking if from deep and any one of Appleby, Williamson Klintman is on from behind the arc, the Deacs have a chance. Last year, WF and Miami combined for 176 points in Coral Gables, think we will see another offense dominant type of game. Over. Deacs win, and WF may find itself on the good side of the bubble. This game should be a great watch, just a shame that the platform will be Ballys.
This season: 21-5 (12-4) #32. The Canes are peaking. Miami has a bunch of solid wins this year (Providence, Rutgers, UVA, @UNC, @UCF), and they are playing particularly well of late. After blowing an 8 point lead in the final two minutes against Pitt, Miami has won 5 straight ACC games including at Clemson and at UNC. Miami has one bad loss (at GT - also Maryland blew out Miami on a neutral court), but otherwise the Canes have solid credentials. Those credentials include a spotless 14-0 mark at the Watsco Center (Duke and Miami are the ACC's two home unbeaten teams).
Conference Analytics:
Offense
Efficiency: UM 114 (#1) - WF 111.6 (#2)
TO%: UM 16.1% (#7) - WF 13.8% (#3)
Off. Reb %: UM 30.6 (#2) - WF 22.4 (#13)
2 PT FG%: UM 53% (#2) - WF 52.4% (#4)
3 PT FG%: UM 37.4% (#1) - WF 37.1% (#3)
Effective FG%: UM 54.3% (#1) - WF 53.8% (#2)
Defense
Efficiency: UM 102.5 (#7) - WF 107 (#9)
TO%: UM 16.8% (#6) - WF 16.6% (#7)
Off. Reb. %: UM 28.4% (#10) - WF 27% (#7)
2 PT FG%: UM 50.6% (#8) - WF 50.6% (#7)
3 PT FG%: UM 31.4% (#2) - WF 35.7% (12)
Effective FG%: UM 49.4% (#5) - WF 51.8% (#9)
Neither team uses the bench: WF is #308 in bench minutes; Miami is #316. Both teams are experienced and WF is bigger.
The roster:
In the win at UNC, the Canes started:
6-0 Nigel Pack: K State transfer, all Big 12 last year, elite 3 point shooter (45% in ACC play; over 40% each of the last three years); 23 in the win over UNC; defense is suspect; when he's not hitting from 3, he can be liability; shot 3 for 12 in the loss to GT
6-4 Isaiah Wong: stud; leads team in scoring, steals and assists; 37% from 3; he rarely plays poorly, but when he does Miami often loses: 63 O rating in the loss to GT, 73 in the loss to Duke 76 in the loss to Pitt (those are three of his worst 4 games of the year)
6-5 Wooga Poplar: most improved player on the team; non-factor last year; 7 ppg 3 rpg this year, playing his best ball of the season 37% from 3
6-7 Jordan Miller: George Mason transfer; 2nd leading scorer and rebounder; 24 points and 11 rebounds in the win at UNC; 36% from three; 60% from two
6-7 Norchad Omier: Arkansas State transfer; from Nicarugua; strong; 14 points and 10 boards a game; 3 for 13 on the year from three; 62% from two
The bench:
6-2 Joseph Bensley: shoots threes (37%, but only 28% in ACC play); 5 ppg, 2 apg; 2 rpg;
6-6 Harlond Beverly: 33% from 3: 3 ppg;
6-9 Anthony Walker: played sparingly lately; 10 points in the last 4 games; 11% from 3;
Projection: KP projects an 85-77 Miami win; Tovik 86-79 Canes.
From an analytics basis, two similar teams as both are elite offensively and mediocre defensively. That said, Miami's edges are on the offensive glass and 3 point defense. Surprising that Miami is such a good offensive rebounding team given their size (no starter over 6-7), but they are very athletic and chase down every loose ball. Defensively, Miami has been elite at defending the three and WF has not. Three point defense metrics are among the most volatile and random; so, an argument can be made that Miami is a little worse defensively than the metrics indicate and WF is better. Deacs are rested with a week off before this game, while Miami off a huge win at UNC on ESPN. So, the spot favors WF a little bit. That said Miami is at home where they are unbeaten.
If Carr is fully healthy after a week to recover and the Deacs are rejuvenated after a few days off, like WF to at least keep it competitive. Also, WF is very reliant on the three point shot, if Monsanto is stroking if from deep and any one of Appleby, Williamson Klintman is on from behind the arc, the Deacs have a chance. Last year, WF and Miami combined for 176 points in Coral Gables, think we will see another offense dominant type of game. Over. Deacs win, and WF may find itself on the good side of the bubble. This game should be a great watch, just a shame that the platform will be Ballys.
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