Pilchard
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WF just played ND three weeks ago. The Deacs won 81-64, and Damari Monsanto torched the Irish for 28 points (8 for 13 from three). Monsanto won't be playing on Saturday or again this year... On top of that wonderful news, WF was essentially eliminated from NCAAT consideration on Wednesday after the loss at State. Even so, WF has three regular season games to play and another early exit from the ACCT to look forward to. Here is the link to the previous report on ND
While ND has lost all 5 games since WF beat the Irish, ND has been competitive in every game:
Since that Feb 4 WF win, Torvik has WF as the #89 team in the nation with the #24 offense and the #229 defense (ugh). During that same period, ND is #123 in the nation and has had the #111 offense and the #180 defense. So, ND, who has the been at the bottom of the ACC in defense all year, has actually played better defense than WF over the last 5 games. That's embarrassing.
Projection: KP has WF winning 82-72; Torvik has WF 83-72. Neither projection factors in the loss of Monsanto.
If this is not about allegiance to WF and is just a dispassionate analysis, Notre Dame and the under are the plays. The line is not going to be double digits as the books will adjust for the loss of Monsanto, but the books will not adjust enough to fully compensate for Damari's absence. It's not just the loss of his production, but Monsanto forces defenses to extend way beyond the paint and makes it impossible to double team anyone else. Also, WF has no depth; so, the drop off from the minutes that Monsanto would've logged to whomever gets those minutes is massive. The one mitigating factor is Davien finally appears to be healthy. After bottoming out with a dreadful performance at Duke (0 points in 19 minutes and just awful on defense), Davien has shown signs of life in recent games (41% from three over the last 5 games). So, there is hope that Williamson will finish his career with a flourish. Guessing the line will open around WF -6.5, and if you are taking the Irish, better take it early because the line will drop as the money comes in on ND.
ND has slowed their pace in recent games:
While ND has lost all 5 games since WF beat the Irish, ND has been competitive in every game:
- Feb. 8 @GT L 68-70
- Feb. 11 VT L 87-93
- Feb, 14 @ Duke L 64-68
- Feb. 18 @UVA L 55-57
- Feb. 22 UNC L 59-63
Since that Feb 4 WF win, Torvik has WF as the #89 team in the nation with the #24 offense and the #229 defense (ugh). During that same period, ND is #123 in the nation and has had the #111 offense and the #180 defense. So, ND, who has the been at the bottom of the ACC in defense all year, has actually played better defense than WF over the last 5 games. That's embarrassing.
Projection: KP has WF winning 82-72; Torvik has WF 83-72. Neither projection factors in the loss of Monsanto.
If this is not about allegiance to WF and is just a dispassionate analysis, Notre Dame and the under are the plays. The line is not going to be double digits as the books will adjust for the loss of Monsanto, but the books will not adjust enough to fully compensate for Damari's absence. It's not just the loss of his production, but Monsanto forces defenses to extend way beyond the paint and makes it impossible to double team anyone else. Also, WF has no depth; so, the drop off from the minutes that Monsanto would've logged to whomever gets those minutes is massive. The one mitigating factor is Davien finally appears to be healthy. After bottoming out with a dreadful performance at Duke (0 points in 19 minutes and just awful on defense), Davien has shown signs of life in recent games (41% from three over the last 5 games). So, there is hope that Williamson will finish his career with a flourish. Guessing the line will open around WF -6.5, and if you are taking the Irish, better take it early because the line will drop as the money comes in on ND.
ND has slowed their pace in recent games:
- VT 66 possessions
- Duke 65 possessions
- UVA 60 possessions
- UNC 63 possessions
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