• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

MBB Game 29 - @ VT - Saturday - 5:30 - CW

Pilchard

Pilchard

Well-known member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
17,191
Reaction score
6,465
This Saturday, the Deacs play their last roadie (yay!!!) of the season at Cassell Coliseum; even with all of WF's road struggles, does seem like the season flew by.

Deacs Pound VT To Start the ACC Season

WF opened its 2023-24 ACC regular season with a big 86-63 win over the Hokies and the link to that thread can be found here.

Before WF worked VT on December 30, the Hokies were the higher rated team (VT - #50; WF #55), but after WF smoked the Hokies that day, the Deacs passed VT in the ratings, and presently 18-10 (10-7) WF sits at #22 in KP, while the Hokies 15-13 (7-10) are rated #56.

Home Success and Road Failures

Despite the difference of 31 spots in the KP ratings, there are strong similarities between the Deacs' and Hokies season:
  • The Hokies play well at home 12-2 (6-2); WF is 15-0 (8-0)
  • The Hokies crumble on the road (1-9); WF is 2-8 (2-7)
According to Torvik (who rates VT at #57 overall) the Hokies are the #22 team in the nation at home, and the #127 team on the road. Torvik rates WF as #23 home team and the #33 road team (Deacs are getting A LOT of mileage out of the GT road blowout).

Analytics:

Given the stark home/road differences between these two schools, below is the WF/VT home/road comparison by the numbers:

VT home offense ----------- WF road defense (national ranks)

Adj. Eff. 118 #28 ----------- 97 #22
Eff. FG% 57 #36 ----------- 49 #57
3 PT% 37 #74 ------------- 30 #19
2 PT% 58 #28 ------------- 52 #162
FT% 82 #2 ---------------- 72 #165

VT home defense ---------- WF road offense

Adj. Eff. 96 #45 ------------ 111 #76
Eff. FG% 48 #138 ----------- 48 #212
3 PT% 34 #218 ------------- 30 #262
2 PT% 47 #97 -------------- 50 #126
FT% 68 #57 ----------------- 83 #1

VT does everything better at home.

Deacs aren't road warriors. Offensively, other than shoot FTs (Deacs are the best road FT shooting team in the nation --- in your face to the other 361 D-1 teams!) , WF massively struggles on the road. They say defense travels, and WF has played solid road defense, but the WF offense has been wretched on the road, particularly the 3 PT shooting (WF shoots 43% from three at home -- #6 in the nation and 30% from three on the road -- #262 in the nation; just a mind-boggling difference). Given the numbers above, fair to conclude that venue may play a role in the game outcome. KP gives VT 3.5 points when playing in Cassell, which is 66th out of the 362 D-1 teams. Seems like the margin could be bigger than that in this matchup.

The Projection:

KP WF 76-75
Torvik VT 77-76

Given the home/road analysis above, really tough to project a WF win on Saturday. That said, feel like Forbes will have the Deacs ready on Saturday. The ND loss was the classic flat spot after WF's game of the year, and with the urgency of the season-ending and the chance to finish WF road schedule with a win, Forbes will have WF ready to play. That said, fully expect Mike Young to have the Hokies motivated for revenge after the WF blow-out and after two rough road performances. May be wearing Black and Gold colored glasses, but just like WF jumped over the Q1 hump with the Duke win last Saturday, think WF gets over its road blues this Saturday, despite the numbers screaming otherwise. Expect a competitive game, and still have faith in this team to do special things this year.
 
I honestly don't know how I'm going to watch this game. The ND game almost killed me. As I've said before many times, I am absolutely not built for this bubble shit.
 
VT is 2-6 out of their last 8 games, with the last two being double digit losses. Outside of that strange one-off UVA win, they have not been playing well at all.
 
Last edited:
deacfan123 said:
I honestly don't know how I'm going to watch this game. The ND game almost killed me. As I've said before many times, I am absolutely not built for this bubble shit.
Click to expand...
Good news it’s on the CW, so it’s not like it will be easy to watch anyway.
 
The only positive to come out of the disaster of our basketball program over the last 2 decades (I think things started to fall apart when Skip died, even though we had a couple of great teams after that) is that I don't care nearly as much as I did before. I don't get too excited over wins or too despondent over losses. And this is coming from the guy who kicked a coffee table across the room after we blew a 20+ lead in the Dean Dome in 1992.

I will watch the game on Saturday and be happy if we win and disappointed when we lose. But then I will go on with the rest of my weekend, regardless of the outcome.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top