Pilchard
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After a deflating loss to GT, our Deacs play the regular season finale on Saturday against Clemson. Guessing March 8 is the latest that WF Men's basketball has ever played its first game against a conference opponent. Maybe, WF can break that record next season when the ACC expands to a jazillion teams. Nothing says ACC like playing SMU on March 10 in Texas.
Clemson's season: #23 21-9 (11-8).
Just not feeling the urge to a deep dive into Clemson. But here are some facts:
Brownell's Ownage of WF
Brad Brownell started coaching Clemson during the 2010-11 season. His Clemson teams are 15-3 against WF (before Brownell, Clemson was 46-83 all-time against WF). He is 3-1 against Steve Forbes, but Forbes won the last game between the two -- a 87-77 WF win in January 2023 (Carr had 18 points and 11 boards; Hildreth had 17 points and 10 board; Monsanto had 17 points).
The Projection:
KP projects a 77-74 WF win; Torvik 76-73 WF. These teams are very similar analytically; for those that subscribe to KP, take a look; the numbers of these two teams in ACC games are crazy close. WF rates the edge in this matchup because of the homecourt.
In ACC games, KP rates Clemson as the #2 ACC offensive team (WF is #3), and Clemson as the #6 defensive team (WF is #5). Clemson scores a lot of its points from the foul-line (#4 in the ACC in % of points from the line) and WF has been foul heavy in ACC play (#10 in the conference in opponents points from the line). WF is the better three point shooting team. Clemson is tough to score on inside.
Really like the under if the total is near the KP projection of 151. Clemson has slowed its tempo over the last weeks, and WF offense is limited (and defense is improved) without Monsanto. Think this game will be a slow grind. Lean in favor of a narrow WF win on a late basket.
For ACCT seeding, there are a ton of possible permutations because so many ACC teams are bunched between 9-10 and 11-8 (WF is 10-9), but I believe that if WF wins and Pitt beats NC State at home, WF would be the ACCT #5 seed as the Deacs would take the tiebreaker over the other 11-9 ACC teams -- Cuse and Clemson. A WF loss, and the Deacs could be tied with VT, NC State and FSU for the 8 through 10 seeds.
Embarrassing that Pitt is likely to finish the ACC regular season alone in 4th place. Shame on Forbes and Brownell (and kudos to Capel) for crapping the bed against so many mediocre ACC opponents.
Bottom line is that WF probably wins this game to just tease us again and to make the GT loss (and every other recent loss) all the more painful.
Clemson's season: #23 21-9 (11-8).
Just not feeling the urge to a deep dive into Clemson. But here are some facts:
- Over the first 9 games (month) of the season, Clemson went 9-0 was the #19 according to Torvik
- Over the next 8 games (another month+), Clemson went 3-5 and was the #67 team according to Torvik
- Over its last 13 games (the last six+ weeks), Clemson went 9-4 and was the #22 team according to Torvik
- Clemson has road wins at Alabama and at UNC. No team has two better road wins than that. Clemson was also jobbed of a win at Duke on a questionable foul call with under 2 seconds left. So, Clemson has played some A level road games.
- OTOH, Clemson has losses to #96 Miami, #50 VT, #125 GT (at home), #67 UVA (at home), #78 NC State (at home) and at #127 ND. Lots of similar losses to WF, but WF played a lame OOC schedule, while Clemson played a strong one, and Clemson has a bellweather road win at UNC. So, Clemson is playing for NCAAT seeding, and WF is playing to salvage a season that it pissed away.
Brownell's Ownage of WF
Brad Brownell started coaching Clemson during the 2010-11 season. His Clemson teams are 15-3 against WF (before Brownell, Clemson was 46-83 all-time against WF). He is 3-1 against Steve Forbes, but Forbes won the last game between the two -- a 87-77 WF win in January 2023 (Carr had 18 points and 11 boards; Hildreth had 17 points and 10 board; Monsanto had 17 points).
The Projection:
KP projects a 77-74 WF win; Torvik 76-73 WF. These teams are very similar analytically; for those that subscribe to KP, take a look; the numbers of these two teams in ACC games are crazy close. WF rates the edge in this matchup because of the homecourt.
In ACC games, KP rates Clemson as the #2 ACC offensive team (WF is #3), and Clemson as the #6 defensive team (WF is #5). Clemson scores a lot of its points from the foul-line (#4 in the ACC in % of points from the line) and WF has been foul heavy in ACC play (#10 in the conference in opponents points from the line). WF is the better three point shooting team. Clemson is tough to score on inside.
Really like the under if the total is near the KP projection of 151. Clemson has slowed its tempo over the last weeks, and WF offense is limited (and defense is improved) without Monsanto. Think this game will be a slow grind. Lean in favor of a narrow WF win on a late basket.
For ACCT seeding, there are a ton of possible permutations because so many ACC teams are bunched between 9-10 and 11-8 (WF is 10-9), but I believe that if WF wins and Pitt beats NC State at home, WF would be the ACCT #5 seed as the Deacs would take the tiebreaker over the other 11-9 ACC teams -- Cuse and Clemson. A WF loss, and the Deacs could be tied with VT, NC State and FSU for the 8 through 10 seeds.
Embarrassing that Pitt is likely to finish the ACC regular season alone in 4th place. Shame on Forbes and Brownell (and kudos to Capel) for crapping the bed against so many mediocre ACC opponents.
Bottom line is that WF probably wins this game to just tease us again and to make the GT loss (and every other recent loss) all the more painful.
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