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Midterm election predictions

Who will win Congress?

  • Dems retain House & Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Dems win House / Pubs win Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Pubs win House / Dems win Senate

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Pubs win House & Senate

    Votes: 29 52.7%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
not even totally sure how they estimate the % to be counted given that California mail-in votes can be post marked by election day.
 
Headlines suggest (some ) Republicans “turning on” Trump after midterm failings.

:rolleyes:

No shit, Trump’s a huge problem. Has been for freaking ever. Republicans, however, need to go WELL beyond scrutinizing and criticizing Trump and acknowledge how they set a course years before Trump’s rise to make that rise possible, even likely. And why/how even until now after his clearly horrific term in office they’ve yet to stand up to him.

Will they do this kind of collective introspection? And make politically healthy changes?

I’ll believe it when I see it.
 
ConnorEl said:
Headlines suggest (some ) Republicans “turning on” Trump after midterm failings.

:rolleyes:

No shit, Trump’s a huge problem. Has been for freaking ever. Republicans, however, need to go WELL beyond scrutinizing and criticizing Trump and acknowledge how they set a course years before Trump’s rise to make that rise possible, even likely. And why/how even until now after his clearly horrific term in office they’ve yet to stand up to him.

Will they do this kind of collective introspection? And make politically healthy changes?

I’ll believe it when I see it.
Click to expand...
No doubt many GOP leaders and right-wing talking heads and Fox News are turning on Trump, but they tried to stop him in 2016 and he rolled right over all of them. I have yet to see any real evidence that the base is turning on him, and that's all that matters. If lots of average Republicans start taking down their Trump flags and signs and putting up DeSantis ones, then I'll believe it. But I don't see that happening, no matter how much Frank Luntz or Chris Christie or some Never Trump Republicans claim it's happening.
 
Right. Trump commands the base and that’s not stopping.

I think Republicans will fall in line after the primary but it will be a brutal primary.
 
Highland Deac said:
No doubt many GOP leaders and right-wing talking heads and Fox News are turning on Trump, but they tried to stop him in 2016 and he rolled right over all of them. I have yet to see any real evidence that the base is turning on him, and that's all that matters. If lots of average Republicans start taking down their Trump flags and signs and putting up DeSantis ones, then I'll believe it. But I don't see that happening, no matter how much Frank Luntz or Chris Christie or some Never Trump Republicans claim it's happening.
Click to expand...

Data point of 1, but one of only 2 houses in my neighborhood openly supporting Trump just did exactly this. They moved a Trump flag almost completely out-of-sight into their backyard and replaced it with a "DeSantis Make America Florida" flag. We will see if house #2 follows their lead!
 
I’m curious to see how “Make America Florida” works nationally among people outside the Fox News bubble. Americans tend not to think fondly of Florida aside from tourist spots.

It works well in Florida from a state pride perspective.
 
It’s tempting to look at the results as a repudiation of crazies and fascists and election deniers, but I’m wondering how much fucking around with Roe cost the pubs this cycle
 
PhDeac said:
I’m curious to see how “Make America Florida” works nationally among people outside the Fox News bubble. Americans tend not to think fondly of Florida aside from tourist spots.

It works well in Florida from a state pride perspective.
Click to expand...
It’s the freedom state where we tell teachers everything they’re not allowed to do or say
 
rawarr said:
It’s tempting to look at the results as a repudiation of crazies and fascists and election deniers, but I’m wondering how much fucking around with Roe cost the pubs this cycle
Click to expand...

Why not both?

Both are the Republican brand.
 
Government is pretty much fucked for getting things done for the foreseeable future. The senate map for the democrats in 2024 is absolutely god awful. So even if you keep the presidency nothing is getting done until 2026 at the earliest.
 
PhDeac said:
I’m curious to see how “Make America Florida” works nationally among people outside the Fox News bubble. Americans tend not to think fondly of Florida aside from tourist spots.

It works well in Florida from a state pride perspective.
Click to expand...

Florida is awesome. Lots of the people living there...not so much.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Government is pretty much fucked for getting things done for the foreseeable future. The senate map for the democrats in 2024 is absolutely god awful. So even if you keep the presidency nothing is getting done until 2026 at the earliest.
Click to expand...
Yeah, saw some tweets about how the Dems need to get a shit ton done in the Lame Duck session. Especially like raising the debt ceiling and passing a budget.
 
Seems incredibly likely that a lot of MAGA Republican voters are going to quietly switch their allegiance to DeSantis in the coming months so that Trump is discouraged from running again.
 
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