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Midterm election predictions

Who will win Congress?

  • Dems retain House & Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Dems win House / Pubs win Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Pubs win House / Dems win Senate

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Pubs win House & Senate

    Votes: 29 52.7%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
PhDeac said:
Which voters? Electoral college and districts have always made some votes count more than others. City voters are disenfranchised by current gerrymandering (packing and cracking) and political polarization.

Dems shouldn’t “abandon” any voters but they should understand that politics has been gamified. If they don’t play that game Republicans will make life worse for more people.
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The philosophy of “if Democrats don’t play that game then Republicans will win” is woefully inadequate, incomplete, and short sighted. There is more rural area than urban, and there are more non-college graduates than college graduates. The Democratic Party would be committing long term suicide to limit itself on education and region. We absolutely can not accept defeat in this regard.
 
Sure I agree with that. But rural, non-college educated voters are far from disenfranchised voters. Their votes matter more than urban, college educated voters. The system is working for them. They vote for Republicans who have gerrymandered districts to give them an outsized say in who has power.
 
PhDeac said:
Sure I agree with that. But rural, non-college educated voters are far from disenfranchised voters. Their votes matter more than urban, college educated voters. The system is working for them. They vote for Republicans who have gerrymandered districts to give them an outsized say in who has power.
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Louis Gossett Jr said:
And fuck themselves over and over and over again!
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With passion and the hope their votes are hurting others even more.
 
I would say Dems need a bigger miracle. It's a miracle for it to be this close. Being down 5-7 is pretty good. We'll get Pubs in Disarray narratives. Ugly factions. McCarthy may not get to be Speaker. Pelosi may step down from minority leader. Other Dem leadership may change. Dems will be motivated to flip the House and hold the Senate in a tough cycle. I'm optimistic.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
Who can get votes for speaker if McCarthy can’t?
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No idea. It may be that most of them don't want McCarthy but can't agree on anybody else. (Like Biden and the prospects if he doesn't run again). But Republican House leadership has changed plenty of times in the last decade or so.



 
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Seems like you’ve asked several questions with a same answer. Someone who seems themselves as an economic conservative and is fine with blatant bigotry but doesn’t want to admit it.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
what is the profile of a person that votes DeSantis but not Trump?
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I’d argue the answer is some of the people that grew up Republican and don’t pay much attention to politics. Those people probably saw enough to dislike Trump but don’t really know much about DeSantis other than the fact that he isn’t Trump, so therefore it is back to the “normal” Republicans they want to vote for.

I’m curious though if there are more voters that fit that profile or if there are more die-hard Trump voters that will refuse to vote if it’s not Trump.
 
Yeah. I think there are a lot of potential voters for DeSantis that didn’t vote for Trump because DeSantis ins’t “crass. “

It is all the perfect policy president people who didn’t like the delivery.

Of this group I would expect 80% voted for Trump anyway, 15% voted for Biden, and 5% just didn’t vote.
 
I saw an initial poll at some point over the weekend from "likely 2024 Republican voters", and it landed at Trump 65%, DeSantis 15%, mix for the other 20%.

That breakdown surprised me, as I thought DeSantis would be closer. Shows the serious hold that Trump still has over the GOP. They will have to deal with that in the next year as we get into primary season. I have a feeling Trump will inevitably win out, with a minor part of the party actively speaking out and pulling away. Of course, they've had three cycles to do that now and still have not.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
what is the profile of a person that votes DeSantis but not Trump?
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Not sure. The 2020 numbers make it pretty obvious that most of the republicans who said they didn't vote for trump were not being honest. I'm not sure why you wouldn't support him as a republican, he gave you almost everything you wanted. You got the courts for at least a generation, and they are hella activist. donald trump is likely the most influential American politician of the last 6 and the next 60 years.
 
However by holding the Senate, Biden and company can keep appointing judges at lower levels than SC to offset some of the crazy judges trump appointed. To this date the Dems have appointed more judges than trump did along the same timeline.
 
would be really nice for some conservative SCOTUS justices to die in the next 2 years
 
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