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Midterm election predictions

Who will win Congress?

  • Dems retain House & Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Dems win House / Pubs win Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Pubs win House / Dems win Senate

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Pubs win House & Senate

    Votes: 29 52.7%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
I'm coming around on Sotomayor retiring. The 2024 Senate landscape is going to be tough. They have to defend Montana, Ohio, and Manchin in WV along with rematches in NV, AZ, and PA. Even if Biden (or the Dem) wins handily, Dems probably don't keep the Senate and a GOP Senate isn't going to confirm any Dem nominee.

Bouzy isn't as confident anymore.
 
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DeacWatcher said:
However by holding the Senate, Biden and company can keep appointing judges at lower levels than SC to offset some of the crazy judges trump appointed. To this date the Dems have appointed more judges than trump did along the same timeline.
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But where do these Democratic judges fit on the ideological spectrum. If trump appoints 50 far right judges and Biden appoints 60 moderate/left-leaning judges where does that put us?
 
yeah I wonder if my in-laws would vote for DeSantis. they're pretty conservative but voted against Trump twice, mostly because of how crass he is. not sure if he was 100% their perfect policy president, but my FIL loves to talk about how great his 401k did under Trump and how shitty it's been this year.
 
Democrats have an insanely bad messaging issue when it comes to the economy. It should be so easy to show that, objectively, over the past 40 years, the economy does better under Democratic presidents than it does Republicans, but they never can seem to get that out.

The 401K/stock market the past few years are clearly explainable by COVID and supply/demand issues, but those will sort out.

That's why the "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" BS really grinds my gears.
 
I have a coworker from Florida who was initially a Trump fan and became turned off by his antics and voted against him last election. He loves DeSantis though and thinks he's the savior of the country. It doesn't seem like DeSantis has anywhere near that recognition outside of Florida though.
 
I think it's telling that for a party who heavily advocates for less government interference, that their party members create a cult-like aura for their candidates. Seems hypocritical.
 
Yeah. Republicans pride themselves on their distrust of government and politicians but they have closet full of political shirts and hats that they wear year round.
 
HuskyDeac said:
I have a coworker from Florida who was initially a Trump fan and became turned off by his antics and voted against him last election. He loves DeSantis though and thinks he's the savior of the country. It doesn't seem like DeSantis has anywhere near that recognition outside of Florida though.
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FWIW, I think he's beaten Trump in a straw poll or two. Again, heavy "FWIW" on that, as you are probably dealing with a very engaged group that is participating in a straw pool.
 
PhDeac said:
Yeah. Republicans pride themselves on their distrust of government and politicians but they have closet full of political shirts and hats that they wear year round.
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all while quoting their favorite Reagan quote about the scariest words in the English language
 
Ball State Deac said:
FWIW, I think he's beaten Trump in a straw poll or two. Again, heavy "FWIW" on that, as you are probably dealing with a very engaged group that is participating in a straw pool.
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The straw poll that comes to mind was CPAC in Orlando, so I think that was heavily skewed by Florida Republicans.

Just looked it up and Trump won that one bigly.
www.cbsnews.com

Trump wins CPAC 2024 straw poll, DeSantis is second but more than 30 points behind

DeSantis dominated without Trump on the ballot, winning 61% of the attendees, including two-thirds of Trump supporters.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

Attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando selected former President Donald Trump as their favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, with 59% of voters selecting Trump in the annual gathering's straw poll.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trailed Trump by more than 30 points, winning 28% of the straw poll, which included 2,574 attendees. Without Trump on the ballot, DeSantis won the support of 61% of attendees, including two-thirds of Trump supporters.
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Republicans must still be nervous about the House.

 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
what is the profile of a person that votes DeSantis but not Trump?
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My parents also. I grew up in NJ, and my parents lived there for 30 years before moving South, so they knew how terrible Trump was going to be anyway. But the politics of fear work strongly on them, and are very much in support of "border control", "gun owners rights", and still mention that my father's business did very well when Reagan was president. I'm not sure who they voted for in 2016, but I'm pretty sure they voted Biden in 2020... if they actually voted.
 
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